POLITICO Playbook: New Census Analysis - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

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TAKEAWAYS FROM THE NEW CENSUS NUMBERS -- The Census Bureau released new estimates of population trends in the United States on Monday, and they have some pretty interesting implications for politics. With the help of William Frey, a demographer at Brookings who shared his projections with us, here are a few nuggets to chew on:

1. California is on track to lose a congressional seat for the first time in history. If trends hold through next April, not only will America's largest state go down to 52 districts as its population growth slows, but two of its red-state rivals -- Texas (+3) and Florida (+2) -- will gain seats. Arizona, Montana and North Carolina are also due to pick up one seat each. Republicans argue that heavy taxes and regulation drive people and jobs away from states run by Democrats, and deep-blue California -- which lost 203,414 residents through domestic migration between 2018 and 2019 -- is their favorite whipping boy. 2. America's old industrial centers are still shrinking. Three of the Midwestern states that delivered the presidency for Trump in 2016 will lose one seat each: Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. As will several blue states: Illinois, Minnesota, New York and Rhode Island. Democrats are likely to pick up seats in Colorado and Oregon, however. 3. The South is growing. Where are all those people going? Between 2018 and 2019, the South was the fastest-growing region in the country, gaining around a million people due to natural growth and migration from elsewhere. This isn't necessarily a long-term win for Republicans, though. As Frey notes, "the underlying demographics of gains for Texas, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina -- Hispanics, blacks and white migrants from bluer states -- could change the politics there in the next decade." 4. America's population growth is at a historic low. At just 0.48%, the U.S. hasn't grown this slowly since 1918, on the tail end of a world war and a flu pandemic. Today, the U.S. is contending with an aging population, crawling fertility rates and declining immigration. The Census Bureau highlighted the news that the annual rate of natural increase -- the number of births minus deaths -- has fallen below 1 million for the first time in decades. 5. Immigration has plummeted. Net international migration fell to less than 600,000 between 2018 and 2019, down from more than a million in 2016. Since Trump's election, it's been going down every year amid new laws and rules discouraging it. Democrats will likely argue that this is especially misguided at a time when America needs an influx of workers and talent. 6. AOC could be a target. With New York likely to lose at least one congressional seat, the district held by Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could be broken up, forcing her to find a new winning coalition. There's little love for the disruptive young upstart in Albany, and many state lawmakers would like nothing more than to redraw her out of office. Ocasio-Cortez seems aware of the threat, as she's been promoting Census sign-ups in her district to ensure that her constituents are fully counted. More from Ally Mutnick