Wednesday, March 28, 2012

BUGGY WHIPS AND FUTURISTIC CARS: Treasury Bonds Diss Bernanke as Yields Surge - Barrons.com

Treasury Bonds Diss Bernanke as Yields Surge - Barrons.com


Randy writes, "...The real test may come, according to Shepherdson, if wages start escalating as the result of competition for qualified employees -- even while those lacking the requisite skill sets remain jobless. If average hourly earnings start to rise, "the Fed would have no choice more or less regardless of the rate of economic growth," he writes."

A few months back the CEO and COO of Facebook were on Bloomberg talking about how the salaries they were paying people had 'doubled' in the last five years.

With half the population not graduating from high school (pick your reasons but think social liberals and unions to start), it may well be we are in a situation where half the population is only capable of making buggy whips and such when the rest of the economy is driving futuristic automobiles.

Obama says you deserve the same healthcare whether educated and productive or uneducated and not working, young and able to contribute to society or living past a last few months on high priced medical care.

When young people are struggling, often jobless and in debt for their educations and public employees stop working at 50 with extravagant pensions and benefits and society spends more on keeping someone in jail for the use of drugs than it does to put someone through college - is it unreasonable to think something is wrong?

Monday, March 26, 2012

IS THE BILL COMING DUE FOR THE OBAMA FREE LUNCH? Treasurys Pile Up With Dealers - WSJ.com

Treasurys Pile Up With Dealers - WSJ.com


It would seem interesting to tie this situation into the situation going on in peripheral European countries like Portugal and Spain where the banks are saddled with too much government paper.

Is this a sign that the real economy has had enough of government borrowing; or, was something left out of the article in terms of crowding out private borrowing?

Clearly Bill Gross was onto something a while back when he talked about how these low rates discourage banks from lending to private borrowers - i.e. the low rates don't adequately compensate for the risks of lending to the given borrower.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Q&A: Portugal Hit by Strike - WSJ.com

Portugal Hit by Strike - WSJ.com

Q (LF):
Looks like extended periods of reduction of government safety net support for unemployed and cuts in public services and increases in taxes is a "winning formula for stimulating higher rates of real growth(sic)." How long do governments have to follow policies which are obviously not working before they change their policies.  

A: 

I'm not sure what magic wand you think can be waived.

What is clearly not happening is to cut taxes (and all the things taxes pay for) and make the regulatory and legal environment business friendly.

It's the same debate that exists in the US - i.e. after a certain level of tax distortion, demand for goods shrinks and the incentive to set up new businesses and expand old ones leaves.

A trenchant question would seem to be "are educated young people staying in Portugal (i.e. to help grow the economy and make it stronger) or are they leaving?" From what I've seen, they are leaving.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

GM Readies Plan to Trim Europe Output - WSJ.com

GM Readies Plan to Trim Europe Output - WSJ.com


People think government benefits are 'free'. They forget that a 20% - 23% VAT (with an extra car tax of an additional 20% or so in Portugal) shift the 'economic utility' curve for cars.

So the car unions ought to attack the welfare state and massive numbers of public employees who drain the resources of the public to buy cars.

There is no free lunch!

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Q&A, Republicans and the poor: Dick Armey and Matt Kibbe: What Do Republicans Believe? - WSJ.com

Dick Armey and Matt Kibbe: What Do Republicans Believe? - WSJ.com

Q (PM):
...It is not their religion that loses [the Republicans] their elections. It is their hatred of the poor and not wanting the poor to succeed...."


Answer:


Don't you think have the parties reversed here?

It's the Democrats who support the Teachers Unions (and vice-versa). They deprive kids of an education (see today's WSJ article on the problem this is causing the country).

Likewise, all the money siphoned off to pay entitlements and keep the prison guards employed (see the article in a recent WSJ or LA Times pointing out that it costs more to keep a single prisoner in jail in California than the average family's take-home pay.

Frankly, it's only the GOP that tries to hold back this tax and spend social entitlement policy mantra of the Democrats. And, as you might know from your own experience, if you don't save and invest, you have nothing to fall back on in emergencies or the funds to create new jobs.

Democratic policies of taxing the public to support public employment or benefits for non-producers, etc. just saps the economy of needed investment capital. Etc., etc.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

RISKS TO A RECOVERY: Positive Trends in February Jobs Report - Barrons.com

Positive Trends in February Jobs Report - Barrons.com


It’s hard not to see the US recovery in part as a house of economic cards built on huge amounts of government debt.

Debt that could be curtailed by cutting back government spending – but we are talking entitlements and clearly Obama believes everyone is entitled to as much healthcare, etc. as the government can provide for free (see the latest Government ruling on California’s request to charge an extremely modest co-pay for doctor visits and prescriptions under Medicaid).

We know a family living on credit cards to supplement their income (we are talking here of roughly a 40% fillip) can often feel flush. Greece and much of sovereign Europe are finding out the limits to borrowing – is the US all that different?

So, things could be done to reduce government spending, but things aren’t being done; and, as now frequently being talked about, 2013 will bring about tax increases. And, to Democrats, this just means more tax receipts. To economic cognoscenti, higher taxes tend to provide diminishing returns (look at Illinois and Maryland as recent examples).

Then, of course, there is the evidence from Europe where budget gaps were closed with higher taxes and economic growth becomes even more of a non-starter.

Yes, things could change; but, Southern Europe shows how economies built on debt don’t last. Democrats are hoping that ‘this time it’s different’. And, it would be hard to not to have to accept that all the Republican presidential candidates have some serious flaws. 

Friday, March 9, 2012

WHY NOT START A BUSINESS? MINDSETS AND INHIBITORS: Young Workers See Pay Shrink - WSJ.com

Young Workers See Pay Shrink - WSJ.com


Another thing we all should be asking ourselves is why, if we have unemployment, why aren't people finding themselves in a position to start their own business or to get together with others to start a business?

There are lots of known answers - some of which include the liberal mindset that people are 'entitled' first and/or that people really don't have choices (disproven by the illegal immigrants who take huge risks to get to the US and work very hard once here).

Other issues are the broad financially related mindsets of Democrats in particular who see no need to reward saving, investment and risk-taking and only see tax dollars to be redistributed by the beneficent hand of government.

Likewise, the gross and broad distortions of government believing they can pick economic and/or technological winners (e.g. by trying to support particular sources of energy and raising the cost of all production; or, as they did by raising the price of imported steel to support the domestic steel industry, all those American exporters who used steel then lost business).

And, with 'hidden taxes' people think there is no cost for unemployment insurance, workmen's compensation or they mis-perceive the true cost - including the cost of providing benefits like Medicare, Medicaid, etc.

Another interesting economic example is here in Portugal where taxes effectively 'double' the cost of a new car (and used cars). The economic ripple effect has never been calculated from anything I've seen; but, my empirical observation would be that the perceived benefit in terms of added revenue to the government is actually false (people don't buy very many cars) and the ripple effect (less demand, less productivity, lower quality of life, etc.) is emblematic of an economy that is not growing.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Dumb, mindless questions: Young Workers See Pay Shrink - WSJ.com

Young Workers See Pay Shrink - WSJ.com

Question: (JT) The accumulated debt is horrible, no doubt. The main problem at this point is Walmart, Apple, etc sent and continue to send all their jobs overseas so the corporate hogs could and continue to get fat. No way out of debt when you got no job. Gotta claw back those jobs, pronto. Only one guy is preaching that, and he has exactly zero traction: Buddy Roemer.

Answer:

Oh yeah. Claw back jobs when 70% of LA kids don't even finish high school. So perhaps Apple will continue to make megabucks with products that instead of costing $1,000 cost $5,000 or more.

It's interesting (should you have lived in such a place) to see how those who come to the US (perhaps not legally???) and see how hard they work. Then, their kids - growing up in the world of US entitlement - don't want to work and often engage in criminal activities.

You might also read a bit about the idea of the "platform economy". The US doesn't want to save money, so it is logical that it contract with other countries and entrepreneurs for those jobs with high capital costs and operating risk.

As for our dear liberals in office, they appear to think capital is free - after all the Fed is printing like crazy; and, they think a return on capital is less important than abundant free healthcare.

If the US is sufficiently business (and immigrant) friendly, there should be plenty of jobs. But, if you have no education and hate math and science and computers, then maybe you'll have a hard time.

It's all well and good to want a corporation to operate at a loss - just think GM and the UAW.

How many jobs are and will be sacrificed in the future to pay for the debts run up by Obama to make Americans think their economy is getting back on track? There is no free lunch and if you subtract the money borrowed, it's like a family living on credit cards, way beyond their income. They may think everything is OK, they are able to spend. But, there will come a time when no one wants to extend any more credit (ask the Greeks).

Also, you might do a bit of reading on nanotechnology. You may think that centralized manufacturing has a future. Sorry, but if the nano-world is correct, it will be just the opposite.

However, the US is afraid to ask people to pay for what they get and there are clearly lots of both jobs begging and work begging to be done on infrastructure.

As Tom Keene said tonight on Bloomberg however, the administration and liberals (perhaps like yourself) are wrong to think that we will get cheaper 4G service by under-funding communication providers or preventing mergers like AT&T's. Sometimes big is better.

The same goes with Admin. policies to create jobs in green energy. When the price for energy goes up, certain users have to close down (i.e. fewer jobs); and, when money is shifted from one place to another, the old money job is gone.

So yeah, would you rather have a 'smart' job drilling for oil or ten 'dumb' jobs putting insulation in a house? Etc., etc.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

HIDDEN AND SHIFTED COSTS = FEWER JOBS: Europe's Car Makers Confront Sour Market - WSJ.com

Europe's Car Makers Confront Sour Market - WSJ.com

Part of the issue in Europe (and the US) is the ever-increasing use of indirect taxes to support the socialist and union goals that citizens have been told they have the 'right to expect' but can't be directly asked to pay for.

Egregious examples abound - beginning with a 20-23 VAT rate in many countries. Instead of making the price of a car relate to the cost of building it and giving an autoworker a job, the price of the car includes extra government workers, generous and early retirement benefits, subsidized healthcare, etc.

So while the sale of a car supports both the car worker's job and the income of many non-producers, there are less cars sold.

In Portugal, taxes practically double the actual cost of a new car. The cascading effect of fewer new cars and far longer holding onto older cars has incredible ripples through job creation, quality of life, etc. If you hold a subsidized government job or are getting a government handout, you don't care - it's all about give-me-mine and the heck with anyone else.

The big picture should try to bring the cost of providing goods and services closer to what people want and are willing to pay. By making the costs of government and unions and labor policies indirectly buried in the prices consumers pay, its only logical that people will buy and use less. As a result, a lower quality of life means fewer jobs and overcapacity.

Monday, March 5, 2012

DIRE CONSEQUENCES AND AN ECONOMIC BALLOON: Andy Laperriere: The High Cost of the Fed's Cheap Money - WSJ.com

Andy Laperriere: The High Cost of the Fed's Cheap Money - WSJ.com

There is also something going on here - call it a Democratic / union / Socialist mindset - that firmly believes big government and unions create prosperity and an efficient and productive allocation of resources.

This point was brought home by comments on Bloomberg this weekend talking about the consequences of the high taxes in the New York City suburbs (Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester) that are required to fun the benefits (including pensions and current salaries) of public employees.

They point out that for a small house on a 60x100 plot the property taxes can be $50,000 per year.

Effectively, the 'consumption' demands and greed of public unions has distorted the economy such that middle class (let's say private sector) workers can no longer afford to own a home (combining mortgage costs with property taxes).

As this article points out, union-derived shifts of assets to consumption (wages, benefits and retirement) instead of assets like housing has a consequence - a dire consequence.

Obama and his supporters clearly don't want to let air out of their economic model's balloon, which could lessen the strain. Instead, they only really want to talk about more taxes on those who invest and create jobs. We are still recovering from the housing balloon. A burst borrowing balloon will be much worse. It likely won't get as bad as Zimbabwe (???) but Greece has seen its GDP go down 20% - and that's with the rich EU sending them lots of money. Who will be there to bail out the Fed and Washington?

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Socialist drive to the bottom: Will China's Sale of Treasuries Force the Fed to Buy? - Barrons.com

Will China's Sale of Treasuries Force the Fed to Buy? - Barrons.com

What he means is that by paying more in taxes, the capital to create jobs will be transferred to the government from the private sector.

And, we all know how smart and hard public employees work (I was one).

So instead of a profit motive, we have people either on the dole, getting free (or very heavily subsidized) healthcare or not working and early and richly retired and benefited.

Somehow this doesn't seem like real GDP. It's more like phantom GDP.

So there will be less money to invest in real jobs and less money overall; and, what is taken at higher and higher rates will leave less and less to be invested in the capital that creates jobs.

This is the European sclerosis - i.e. higher taxes so less capital to create growth and higher prices (in Portugal car prices are doubled through taxes) to discourage purchases, which could drive job creation.

It's a drive to the bottom. Socialists can only support their systems of economic administration by being in denial. Denial in terms of assuming others will work and give the money to non-workers and the government with no impact on saving, investment or productivity. Yet, when you ask a socialist to forgo all discounts at a supermarket, one doubts they'd agree it was fair.

BUSINESS AS USUAL: Will China's Sale of Treasuries Force the Fed to Buy? - Barrons.com

Will China's Sale of Treasuries Force the Fed to Buy? - Barrons.com

Obama and the Dems and their public union supporters are like the spouse who thinks they can keep expanding credit card debt forever - until of course they win the lottery, etc.

As many Greeks have been quoted as saying and some of the unions in Stockton, California - they all know there is a 'hidden pot of money somewhere" so they can continue with business as usual.

Too many people just don't want to or think they should do the math. With housing it was only part of the economy.

LET THE SPENDING BAND PLAY ON: Bending the Growth Curve - Barrons.com

Bending the Growth Curve - Barrons.com

Here it is one more time in print. So, when the reckoning comes, Americans won't be able to say they weren't warned.

Obama approaches economics and governance with religious zeal. What he wants to happen, his economic god promises him to happen. Thus, his belief (if not economic logic) is strong.

Those with a more secular economic bent believe incentives to produce (low taxes, regulations, other types of fiscal drag, etc.) do have a negative impact on actual growth and production and jobs. (Which counters the religious belief of Obama that taxes are no impact on job creation.)

So, in this world of myth and fancy - you tell the public there's a free lunch and, like Jesus with the loaves and fishes - everyone wants to believe its true.

The attendant hunger will, as Donlan advises, be less if we start growing and stop wasting our food and resources. But, as many have said, "let the band play-on...".

Saturday, March 3, 2012

HOW TO ENCOURAGE GROWTH: Why Spain’s Widening Budget Deficit Helps Portugal - The Euro Crisis - WSJ

Why Spain’s Widening Budget Deficit Helps Portugal - The Euro Crisis - WSJ

Higher taxes as part of austerity have to be counter-productive. Loosening labor laws and protections, cutting back on government regulations and red tape are productive.

How does a small business survive or start when income taxes reduce the ability to accumulate equity and higher VAT taxes raise the cost of plant and equipment?

Few people work, save or invest to put money and benefits in someone else's pocket.

There is a huge amount of global business looking for a low tax, regulatory friendly home. Too bad socialists and most labor unions lack the ability to even contemplate how to grow economies.