Sunday, April 22, 2012

ON PORTUGAL'S SUCCESS: Rethinking the War on Drugs - WSJ.com

Rethinking the War on Drugs - WSJ.com

Drugs in Portugal: Did Decriminalization Work?
By Maia Szalavitz
Portugal, which in 2001 became the first European country to officially abolish all criminal penalties for personal possession of drugs, including marijuana, cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine.
The paper, published by Cato in April, found that in the five years after personal possession was decriminalized, illegal drug use among teens in Portugal declined and rates of new HIV infections caused by sharing of dirty needles dropped, while the number of people seeking treatment for drug addiction more than doubled.
"Judging by every metric, decriminalization in Portugal has been a resounding success," says Glenn Greenwald, an attorney, author and fluent Portuguese speaker, who conducted the research. "It has enabled the Portuguese government to manage and control the drug problem far better than virtually every other Western country does."
Compared to the European Union and the U.S., Portugal's drug use numbers are impressive. Following decriminalization, Portugal had the lowest rate of lifetime marijuana use in people over 15 in the E.U.: 10%. The most comparable figure in America is in people over 12: 39.8%. Proportionally, more Americans have used cocaine than Portuguese have used marijuana.
The Cato paper reports that between 2001 and 2006 in Portugal, rates of lifetime use of any illegal drug among seventh through ninth graders fell from 14.1% to 10.6%; drug use in older teens also declined. Lifetime heroin use among 16-to-18-year-olds fell from 2.5% to 1.8% (although there was a slight increase in marijuana use in that age group). New HIV infections in drug users fell by 17% between 1999 and 2003, and deaths related to heroin and similar drugs were cut by more than half. In addition, the number of people on methadone and buprenorphine treatment for drug addiction rose to 14,877 from 6,040, after decriminalization, and money saved on enforcement allowed for increased funding of drug-free treatment as well.
America has the highest rates of cocaine and marijuana use in the world, and while most of the E.U. (including Holland) has more liberal drug laws than the U.S., it also has less drug use.

Read more:http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1893946,00.html#ixzz1skId6cgz

LIVE-AND-LET-LIVE: Rethinking the War on Drugs - WSJ.com

Rethinking the War on Drugs - WSJ.com

Legalization would work - in particular if much of society would change it's mindset that individuals really aren't responsible for their actions!

The religious right turns to their god-determined (but man designed) views of righteous living. On the left, Obama and the democrats want to provide equally for people whatever their effort, circumstances or initiative and personal values.

A supply and demand society in which people aren't automatically entitled to 'opportunity' and then allowed to live with the consequences of their choices would be much more fair.

Some of the noted efforts to constrain individuals - e.g. the perpetual DUI people - might make sense. Many parts of Europe could well teach America about a kinder live-and-let-live attitude that seems so anathema to both the right and left in the US.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

THE CHEAP DEBT CAMEL: Market Seers Envision Dark Clouds - Barrons.com

Market Seers Envision Dark Clouds - Barrons.com


Our dear writer posits "Rather, we feel obliged to point out that it's rarely a prelude to a serious bear market when the air is thick with forebodings."

However, one does ponder whether Obama has serious forebodings in relation to his fiscal and social entitlement and anti-business policies; and, one can't help but wonder how quickly the maelstrom descended on the Greek economy just after an election in which politicians continued to hand out jobs and other benefits as though there was no end in sight.

Somehow the idea of no problem with French or US deficits and burden all the other sovereign debt represents where 'austerity' really means 'higher taxes' and (only hoped for but stifled) growth - well, its sure seems like a bubble; and, like all bubbles there's a great feel-good feeling until the bubble quickly starts to deflate. Or, in this case, the camel being loaded down with cheap debt finally decides enough is enough and it sits down.

We've seen it with Greece, Portugal, Spain has been really in the headlines.

Friday, April 20, 2012

"AUSTERITY" IS THE WRONG WORD TO BE USING: Europe's Elections Question - WSJ.com

Europe's Elections Question - WSJ.com


Let's recognize that the term "austerity" as used and applied in most of Europe means "higher taxes" and, at best "modest changes to socialist and union-centric policies".

We need another term something encompassing the fact that socialist can't understand that it is the high-tax, anti-growth, pro-regulation, pro-union policies that are destroying employment opportunities in a free market and that government jobs cost far more than the value they return to society. If they at least returned their cost, then taxes to support them would be unnecessary.

Like Obama in the US and his Democrats, the socialists in Europe are like a family happily living on credit cards. At some point they reach a debt limit.

In addition to the debt limits, interest rates rise. Greece was the canary in the fiscal/economic coalmine of socialism. And, Greece's lessons have largely been ignored because socialists and unions don't see the natural result of their policies - all of which discourage hard work and excellence and instead encourage taking from those who do work, save and invest.

COMMENTS: Sarkozy in Hot Seat as Election Nears - WSJ.com

Sarkozy in Hot Seat as Election Nears - WSJ.com

As a French friend wrote in relation to needed welfare cutbacks and the French election,

"...The other priority should be cutting back the obscene amount of money spent by the state to make people believe it really works (limousines, jets, official trips, summits, dinners, useless departments, etc)... But it is exactly what they have been reluctant to do. When he was elected in 2007, Sarkozy was expected to be a kind of Margaret Thatcher, at least enforce his strong economic and social measures. On the contrary, he kept backing up at the first sign of a protest, he did not suppress what the left had started before he was elected, did not fulfill his promises, he hired ex socialists or left wing people (he even married one, by the way). Paradoxically, opinion polls show that a majority of French people wish a right oriented policy, but they are so fed up with the dwarf (one of Sarkozy's knicknames) and so eager to get rid of him, that they are ready to elect the socialist loser, even if they don't like him."

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Europe's Rescue Plan Falters - WSJ.com

Europe's Rescue Plan Falters - WSJ.com


Let's see? The governments keep up social spending and support for inefficient state enterprises. They raise taxes (VAT and corporate). Thus, individuals have less disposal income, companies have less income.

The banks are forced to buy government bonds, not loan money to businesses. Rates are kept low so, even if people were inclined and able to save money, they are discouraged from doing so.

So, the prices of goods and services are artificially raised by the VAT charges tacked on (think economic utility of consumption).

Where is the growth supposed to come from? Where are the funds for investment - let alone the desire to invest - supposed to come from (the banks are being forced to buy government bonds).

If government picks winners or losers in the economy, it's going to get it wrong!

Would it be worth considering long-term plans to reduce the share of the economy going to government. Would lower taxes on those who can grow and invest in the economy not be better than higher and higher taxes on them?

Why not give young people a chance? They need lower taxes and support for entrepreneurship, new ideas, saving and investment.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Wild Cards, Logic and the Fiscal Cliff: A Summer Slump Would Shape Election - WSJ.com

A Summer Slump Would Shape Election - WSJ.com


The fiscal cliff noted in the article is clearly part of the picture.

In Europe, the cliff is shown in the fact that the banks have bought all this sovereign debt which has less and less value (rates going up); no one is saving because rates and returns on saving are non-existent; as taxes go up there is less many for consumers and what they buy costs more; etc.

As a result, the banks really don't have money to lend.

Obama and the Senate Democrats think 'tax fairness' is an appealing slogan and so show the polls (60% per Bloomberg this am). But what's fair about 1% of taxpayers footing more than 50% of the tax bill? (How many people might order dessert at a meal if they knew someone else was picking up the tab - or, maybe a better bottle of wine?)

Socialists don't say "you go your way, we'll go ours" because they know they can't go 'their' way without 'your money'. With 42 cents out of every federal dollar spent being borrowed and dithering about everything (like Simpson Bowles) except politics (tax fairness), either a recession or reworked numbers are almost surely in the cards. The low natural gas prices are a wildcard but then again, their are lots of wild cards.

Saturday, April 14, 2012

SOVEREIGN BUBBLE IS HERE - IGNORED AS WAS THE HOUSING BUBBLE: Bonds Gain From Stocks' Pain - Barrons.com

Bonds Gain From Stocks' Pain - Barrons.com


Comparisons with the housing bubble and the sovereign debt bubble (US included) would seem appropriate.

In both cases the borrowers (read now 'governments') borrowed far more than they could ever pay back and the lenders (read almost everyone) kept lending them money seemingly without considering the risk.

Greece went basically belly-up but all these governments think they can keep encouraging entitlement spending, etc. without really understanding that they need to grow the private sector, which underpins the economy.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

CHOICES: Global Worries Hit Markets Anew - Barrons.com

Global Worries Hit Markets Anew - Barrons.com


We each can make our own choices.

Since Obama and the Democrats excuse those who don't get an education or those that don't want to teach, they are left with few options but to take the capital from those that still have it (read: negative real interest rates).

At some point though, there will have to be cutbacks in taxes, regulations and union benefits - otherwise there won't be any capital or incentives to create jobs (a problem already prevalent in Europe and, from Dunkleberg's comments Friday on Bloomberg's Tom Keene show, already present among small business in the US).

If interest rates on government debt should normalize in the US things will be far from halcyon. But, the Democrats love Never-Never-Land, so who knows.

We all have access to information, it's up to each of us to do with it as we will.

Unemployment Falls Fast in U.S. If Men Get College Degree - Bloomberg

Unemployment Falls Fast in U.S. If Men Get College Degree - Bloomberg

"... So-called middle-skill jobs, typically well-paying work that don’t require extensive higher education, are vanishing, dividing the labor force into high- and low-skill positions. While women are moving up the knowledge ladder, male educational attainment is growing at a slower rate...."

Sunday, April 8, 2012

THE FARMER ANALOGY: Job Growth Loses Steam - WSJ.com

Job Growth Loses Steam - WSJ.com


Another consideration here is that the US has high paying jobs with no one to fill them.

Facebook stated on Bloomberg in January that the salaries it pays its technical people have doubled in the last 5 years. Google increased salaries by 10% across the board last year.

In an 'entitlement' society where half the kids don't graduate from high school, there are huge numbers of Americans with no place in a technically and information demanding society.

But liberal educational philosophies and teachers unions are an utter impediment to encouraging kids to get an education or suffer the consequences. Too many people believe there should be 'no' consequences. Instead those who are successful are 'to blame' and should pay ever higher taxes.

Things are screwed up! (It reminds me of a story a South African told me about a white farmer and a black farmer (not to be racist but this is how the story goes). Both farmers grew corn and the black farmer was always envious of the corn crop of the white farmer. The farmers both planted their corn using a little wheel with cups in it where they would put the seed. They would roll the wheel down the row of future corn and that's how they'd plant their crop. The white farmer would put three seeds in each cup and the black farmer no more than one.)

The US has far too many policies that don't educate those who want to get ahead how to get ahead and success is vilified (read also taxed) to equalize economic outcomes.

VISIONS AND LIES AND A FOGGY MIND: Job Growth Loses Steam - WSJ.com

Job Growth Loses Steam - WSJ.com

Comment by PD: 
"...a general problem ever since the turn of the century... the middle class has had stagnant, at best, real income growth.

Many middle class, independent voters eagerly await a politician that can espouse a vision for setting us on a new trajectory. A vision that seems to acknowledge what many view as a long brewing problem rather than simply a vision of political opportunism."


Response:


As an example of what should change, in California education policy the goal is to equalize educational outcomes rather than opportunities. Thus, the money and effort goes into helping the dumbest, most needy kids rather than those with potential.

As a result, the latest statistics show 70% of LA kids not graduating from high school. The national average is 50%.

If people are going to get good paying jobs and demand (or be led to believe they are entitled to have) abundant health and retirement benefits, then the money has to come from somewhere.

If a society is encouraged to spend and not save and business and the wealthy are supposed to sacrifice their capital and incomes (the top 1% pay something like 51% of all income taxes and see all the recent articles on this), business and banks get bashed by Obama, then where are good paying jobs to come from?

With no education in a competitive global economy, those who would like to make an American 'middle class' demand on global resources (think our trade deficit), have to bring something proportionate to the table. Democrats would cringe at the idea of telling people this!!!

Friday, April 6, 2012

(Comment and Response) Econometric modeling re: Review & Outlook: Obama vs. Marbury v. Madison - WSJ.com - btbirkett@gmail.com

Gmail - Review & Outlook: Obama vs. Marbury v. Madison - WSJ.com - btbirkett@gmail.com


Comment: 

Oh yes, good ole Capitalism. Let's keep the rich, rich, and lets keep the poor, poor.  The reality is America values it's middle class, and our middle class is disappearing rapidly. 

The Republicans and Democrats do nothing but bicker at one another.  We can't accomplish anything because they are holding us back. Etc. Etc. Same ole story, different day.  Mark my words, the U.S. is heading for some radical changes over the next 20 years…. You just wait and see ;)  I'll be sure to reach and say, told you so. 

Response:

As for big changes, you are clearly understating it. 

The young are being taxed and forced to provide lavish benefits to public union employees (see tax rates on property in NY, sales tax rates, etc.). As a recent article said about NYC, there is no money to pay for road and infrastructure improvements because its all going to public employee pensions. It's the old saying about pigs getting fat and hogs ready to slaughter. 

Rhode Island has led the way in reducing existing union pension benefits to current retirees. It is happening here in Portugal and especially Greece. The 1970's showed that printing money can't overcome the impediments of bad fiscal and regulatory policy. 

As for change, it would seem likely that someone will be able to capture the youth vote to realize too much of their earnings and the funds to create job opportunities for them is going to non-producers.

As for healthcare costs, the money has to come from somewhere and the government needs to use all means at its disposal to try and keep the free and subsidized care system going. There is a huge sense of 'entitlement' among people in developed countries that didn't exist when I was growing up. (It's interesting that this sense of entitlement isn't there among young people I've met in Eastern Europe because they saw what it led to under Communism!)

So doctors who might only get reimbursed $40 under Medicare or Medicaid (paid for by government) charge private patients $80 or $120 to make up for it (the lower number being a negotiated rate with private insurance carriers; the higher price being the rate paid individually without insurance). There are also taxes on private policies which are used to subsidize public health care expenditures.

If you think about the 17% of GDP for healthcare, you have to recognize that as more and more resources are allocated to healthcare, more 'marginal producers' (read: higher cost, less productive, etc.) have to be brought in.

Also, when you think of healthcare demand, I gave you the California co-pay example. When it's free (or for the elderly close-to-free), more is used.

There is also a huge use of prescriptions in the US that has gone so far as to pollute the water supply in many areas with residual chemicals released in wastewater discharges.

If you get a chance, you might enjoy reading "Plagues and Peoples" by McNeil. (cheap as a used book). 

Plagues and Peoples by William Hardy McNeill - Reviews ...

www.goodreads.com/book/show/46725.Plagues_and_Peoples
 Rating: 3.8 - 618 votes
27 Oct 2010 – Plagues and Peoples has 618 ratings and 58 reviews. Naxa said: A groundbreaking work in epidemiological history. McNeil attempts to do two ...

A lot is being written about the US deficit spending problem and there is a lot of effort - especially be Obama and the Democrats (but I'm not letting the Republicans off the hook here either) - to make people think this problem can be solved by taxes on the rich (let the Bush tax cuts expire, etc.). Too high taxes was a problem in the 1970s that the Reagan tax cuts corrected.

Half of Americas kids don't graduate from high school. They want a middle class lifestyle but the government says they should have it whether they work or not.

Someone said the other day that if the US had grown on trend (i.e. with better tax and regulatory policies and less bashing of business and the banks) under Obama (last 3 years), GDP in the US would be 12% higher! So, should we wonder what happened to some nice middle class jobs and the ability to employ a larger percentage of the workforce, this lost 12% is part of the answer.

Anyway, my old saying is that if I was a Jew in Germany in the 1930's, I would hope to have been able to know to leave. As such, I try and pay attention to things. I admit to spending more time on the big picture than the small though - so, who's perfect? I'm not saying I am. 

History has lots of lessons for us; and, I don't know if you've ever had a course in econometric analysis and linear regression, but it's not just garbage-in-and-garbage-out, it's also about how you organize and select R-factor correlations. 

In this sense, Art Laffer economist types do it one way (i.e. people like to keep their money and don't like high taxes and oppressive regulations) and Democratic Obama types do it in a totally different way (i.e. investment comes from demand and what bureaucrats decide is best; individuals that make to much shouldn't be allowed to keep it; government knows best - individuals don't; business is inherently evil and the benefactors of the poor who create nothing and take what they need from others are the worthy and should be in charge; etc.). 

When you'd run the econometric projections, I suggest you'd get different results. The Democratic R-factors lead to Greece-like results.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

A NATURAL BALANCE UPSET: Euro Zone Cuts Deeper Amid Criticism - WSJ.com

Euro Zone Cuts Deeper Amid Criticism - WSJ.com


Socialists always think "someone else" owes them a job. As such, the equation of "production = labor + capital + raw materials" gets distorted.

There should be a natural balance between those wanting work and entrepreneurs able and willing to create jobs.

When this balance is distorted, questions should be asked as to what is interfering. (Clearly taxes and regulations are part of the problem and the welfare state offsets incentives to find work.)

European policymakers seem to be ignoring the advice of people like Arthur Laffer (easily Googled).