Monday, August 31, 2020
Sunday, August 30, 2020
Opinion | Will This Old Financial Tool Transform Tech Investing? - The New York Times
Opinion | Will This Old Financial Tool Transform Tech Investing? - The New York Times
Apparently so, given the recent explosion in SPACs — the jaunty acronym for “special purpose acquisition companies.”
While this investment instrument has been around for a long time, it has suddenly become the hottest way to raise capital, especially in tech. More than $30 billion has been raised so far this year through 75 SPACs. That’s more than double last year, with more to come in 2020.
It’s a good sign, since SPACS offer smaller, innovative and big-idea companies — like electric-transportation start-ups, savvy health care firms and space-exploration companies — a way to get enough capital to evade the tractor beams of bigger companies and reach escape velocity as independent businesses.
Friday, August 28, 2020
Neuralink: What We Know About Elon Musk's Brain Startup - Bloomberg
Neuralink: What We Know About Elon Musk's Brain Startup - Bloomberg
Elon Musk’s Claims About Brain Company Mostly Backed by
Science
Science
Neuralink is one of the world’s most hyped biotech
companies. Will it perform as promised? Here’s what scientists make of the
hype.
companies. Will it perform as promised? Here’s what scientists make of the
hype.
By Sarah McBride
August 27, 2020, 12:00 PM GMT+1
Elon Musk has made plenty of claims about Neuralink Corp.,
his brain-machine interface company. On Twitter and on podcasts, the
billionaire has touted abilities that sound nothing short of miraculous: easing
depression, helping with obsessive compulsive disorder and treating traumatic
brain injuries.
his brain-machine interface company. On Twitter and on podcasts, the
billionaire has touted abilities that sound nothing short of miraculous: easing
depression, helping with obsessive compulsive disorder and treating traumatic
brain injuries.
Now, Neuralink, whose work has largely been shrouded in
secrecy, is set to give a public “progress update” on Friday.
secrecy, is set to give a public “progress update” on Friday.
In the run-up to the big reveal, Musk has allowed some
glimpses at the company’s technology. An early look came a year ago, when the
Neuralink team showed off tiny
electrodes on thin, flexible probes they said would be able to penetrate
brain tissue with minimal damage, and ultimately help restore brain
function to people with traumatic brain injuries. The team has already been
placing them in rats and primates.
glimpses at the company’s technology. An early look came a year ago, when the
Neuralink team showed off tiny
electrodes on thin, flexible probes they said would be able to penetrate
brain tissue with minimal damage, and ultimately help restore brain
function to people with traumatic brain injuries. The team has already been
placing them in rats and primates.
Will the devices actually be able to achieve the
breakthroughs Musk says they can? Here’s a rundown of what we know so far about
Musk’s startup—the most recent claims, the technology, and what neuroscientists
say is actually possible.
breakthroughs Musk says they can? Here’s a rundown of what we know so far about
Musk’s startup—the most recent claims, the technology, and what neuroscientists
say is actually possible.
Claim: Neuralink will
soon be able to implant its technology in humans
soon be able to implant its technology in humans
On May 7, Musk appeared on the popular podcast, the Joe
Rogan Experience, and made a distinctive claim about Neuralink: The startup
would “be able to implant a neural link in less than a year in a person, I
think.”
Rogan Experience, and made a distinctive claim about Neuralink: The startup
would “be able to implant a neural link in less than a year in a person, I
think.”
The prediction is not actually as groundbreaking as it might
sound. Musk was describing a procedure that happens fairly routinely to
treat conditions such as epilepsy and Parkinson’s, despite
potentially fatal risks such as brain hemorrhages.
sound. Musk was describing a procedure that happens fairly routinely to
treat conditions such as epilepsy and Parkinson’s, despite
potentially fatal risks such as brain hemorrhages.
Justin Sanchez, who helped fund research done by Neuralink
scientists when he ran the biological technologies office at the Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency, estimates that about 200,000 people
globally have some sort of neurotechnology implanted in their brain. In
fact, the technology is so well developed at this point that the Battelle
Memorial Institute, where Sanchez is a fellow, has developed a neurotechnology-based
non-implanted device aimed at nothing more grandiose than helping people
improve their golf swings.
scientists when he ran the biological technologies office at the Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency, estimates that about 200,000 people
globally have some sort of neurotechnology implanted in their brain. In
fact, the technology is so well developed at this point that the Battelle
Memorial Institute, where Sanchez is a fellow, has developed a neurotechnology-based
non-implanted device aimed at nothing more grandiose than helping people
improve their golf swings.
The other important element of Musk’s statement was that
Neuralink is on track for human trials by next year. To test so quickly in
humans, the company would need to get an exemption from the normal multi-year
regulatory process from the Food and Drug Administration. That may be
possible—other brain implants have received exemptions. But Neuralink’s device
could face additional challenges.
Neuralink is on track for human trials by next year. To test so quickly in
humans, the company would need to get an exemption from the normal multi-year
regulatory process from the Food and Drug Administration. That may be
possible—other brain implants have received exemptions. But Neuralink’s device
could face additional challenges.
Currently, the company uses flexible polymers, which are
unlikely to last a decade in the human body—the minimum timeframe the FDA
likes to see in medical devices that can’t easily be removed. “If you want to
test whether something can last 10 years, you really have to wait 10 years,”
says Matt Angle, chief executive of Paradromics Inc., an Austin, Texas-based
brain-machine interface company.
unlikely to last a decade in the human body—the minimum timeframe the FDA
likes to see in medical devices that can’t easily be removed. “If you want to
test whether something can last 10 years, you really have to wait 10 years,”
says Matt Angle, chief executive of Paradromics Inc., an Austin, Texas-based
brain-machine interface company.
A report in health news site Stat News this week detailed
internal tensions at Neuralink, citing former employees who said the company
culture could be chaotic and that it quickly cycled through scientific talent.
According to two anonymous former employees, it had explored possibly by
passing the U.S. regulatory process by pursuing human trials in China or Russia.
internal tensions at Neuralink, citing former employees who said the company
culture could be chaotic and that it quickly cycled through scientific talent.
According to two anonymous former employees, it had explored possibly by
passing the U.S. regulatory process by pursuing human trials in China or Russia.
Claim: Neuralink
devices will be able to treat addiction
and depression
devices will be able to treat addiction
and depression
On July 10, Musk took to Twitter with another notable
statement. A Twitter user asked Musk if Neuralink could be used to retrain the
part of the brain that causes addiction and depression. Musk replied, “For
sure. This is both great & terrifying.”
statement. A Twitter user asked Musk if Neuralink could be used to retrain the
part of the brain that causes addiction and depression. Musk replied, “For
sure. This is both great & terrifying.”
Neuroscientists agree that placing electrodes in the brain
could help mitigate those conditions. In fact, researchers beyond Neuralink are
working on it now, including Alik Widge, a psychiatrist and biomedical engineer
at the University of Minnesota. The treatment involves applying electrodes to a
spot in the brain called the internal capsule, and works by stimulating
connections to the prefrontal cortex to improve cognitive functions such as
perception and judgment. About 200 patients worldwide have tried the technique
for depression, Widge said.
could help mitigate those conditions. In fact, researchers beyond Neuralink are
working on it now, including Alik Widge, a psychiatrist and biomedical engineer
at the University of Minnesota. The treatment involves applying electrodes to a
spot in the brain called the internal capsule, and works by stimulating
connections to the prefrontal cortex to improve cognitive functions such as
perception and judgment. About 200 patients worldwide have tried the technique
for depression, Widge said.
In several countries opioid
addicts have had electrodes implanted into the areas of the brain that
control addiction. That includes the U.S., where a West Virginia man underwent
the procedure late last year at WVU Rockefeller Neuroscience Institute. He has
abstained from opioids since, a spokeswoman said. A second opioid patient
underwent the same surgery earlier this month.
addicts have had electrodes implanted into the areas of the brain that
control addiction. That includes the U.S., where a West Virginia man underwent
the procedure late last year at WVU Rockefeller Neuroscience Institute. He has
abstained from opioids since, a spokeswoman said. A second opioid patient
underwent the same surgery earlier this month.
While there are hurdles to wide adoption, there is no reason
Neuralink couldn’t push into these areas in the future. In a 2018 review of
studies of deep brain stimulation and its effects on depression, scientists
said the results “showed promise” but the technique remained experimental. “The
psychiatrists I talk with say that they want to see much stronger efficacy
data,” Widge said.
Neuralink couldn’t push into these areas in the future. In a 2018 review of
studies of deep brain stimulation and its effects on depression, scientists
said the results “showed promise” but the technique remained experimental. “The
psychiatrists I talk with say that they want to see much stronger efficacy
data,” Widge said.
Claim: The startup
will be able to mitigate conditions like obsessive
compulsive disorder
will be able to mitigate conditions like obsessive
compulsive disorder
On July 18, a Twitter user asked if Neuralink could help
patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder and if it could stimulate the
release of oxytocin, serotonin and other chemicals. Musk replied simply, “Yes.”
patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder and if it could stimulate the
release of oxytocin, serotonin and other chemicals. Musk replied simply, “Yes.”
Programs around the country already do this, so it’s
plausible that Neuralink could one day achieve the same, experts said. However,
scientists’ grasp on exactly how the technology works is still evolving. “We
just have the understanding of bits and pieces,” said Rachel Davis, director of
OCD and neuromodulation programs at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical
Campus, which is working on the technology.
plausible that Neuralink could one day achieve the same, experts said. However,
scientists’ grasp on exactly how the technology works is still evolving. “We
just have the understanding of bits and pieces,” said Rachel Davis, director of
OCD and neuromodulation programs at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical
Campus, which is working on the technology.
Many scientists see big potential here, mainly because
existing drugs often fall short when it comes to OCD and related conditions.
“The next big wave for these stimulation technologies is going to be mood,”
said Dave Rosa, CEO of NeuroOne Medical Technologies Corp.
existing drugs often fall short when it comes to OCD and related conditions.
“The next big wave for these stimulation technologies is going to be mood,”
said Dave Rosa, CEO of NeuroOne Medical Technologies Corp.
Claim: Neuralink could “solve”
brain injuries, and treat conditions like autism and ALS
brain injuries, and treat conditions like autism and ALS
On July 18, responding to Musk’s call for job applicants who
wanted to help “solve” brain and spinal injuries, a Twitter user asked if
Neuralink could also help disabled people living with injuries, autism and
amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS. Musk replied it had that potential.
wanted to help “solve” brain and spinal injuries, a Twitter user asked if
Neuralink could also help disabled people living with injuries, autism and
amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS. Musk replied it had that potential.
Illustration of what Neuralink's first brain-machine
interface might look like in humans, with a series of implants connected to a
device surgically implanted behind the ear.Source: Neuralink
interface might look like in humans, with a series of implants connected to a
device surgically implanted behind the ear.Source: Neuralink
Deep brain stimulation, or treatment via electrodes
implanted into the brain, is already used for traumatic brain injuries. Many
patients have already undergone the procedure with promising results.
Encouraging signs are also emerging that such technologies could help address
autism. Implanting electrodes in the brains of autistic people has helped
improve symptoms in many cases.
implanted into the brain, is already used for traumatic brain injuries. Many
patients have already undergone the procedure with promising results.
Encouraging signs are also emerging that such technologies could help address
autism. Implanting electrodes in the brains of autistic people has helped
improve symptoms in many cases.
Treating ALS, however, may be more difficult. Vikash Gilja,
a former Neuralink employee who now teaches at the University of California,
San Diego and runs a translational neural engineering research lab there, says
that would be a tough disease to combat with brain-machine interfaces, because
it affects such broad areas of the brain. “We’re more likely to see
pharmaceutical treatments for that,” Gilja said.
a former Neuralink employee who now teaches at the University of California,
San Diego and runs a translational neural engineering research lab there, says
that would be a tough disease to combat with brain-machine interfaces, because
it affects such broad areas of the brain. “We’re more likely to see
pharmaceutical treatments for that,” Gilja said.
Claim: The company
will be able to stream music directly into people’s brains
will be able to stream music directly into people’s brains
On July 19, a Twitter user asked if someone with a Neuralink
implant would be able to stream music “directly from our chips,” calling it a
“great feature.” Again, Musk replied with a simple “Yes.”
implant would be able to stream music “directly from our chips,” calling it a
“great feature.” Again, Musk replied with a simple “Yes.”
While it sounds far-fetched, neuroscientists say this
feature wouldn’t differ markedly from existing technology. “That’s very
technically feasible,” says Angle of Paradromics. “The auditory pathway is very
well mapped.”
feature wouldn’t differ markedly from existing technology. “That’s very
technically feasible,” says Angle of Paradromics. “The auditory pathway is very
well mapped.”
Some in the scientific community have watched the company’s
promises warily, fearing that they might prompt afflicted people to delay
necessary procedures. “One issue that has come up time and time again is the
ethics around creating false hope” around unknown timelines, said Gilja, the
UCSD professor and former Neuralink employee. “Creating hope in a patient
population can be a good thing, but it can be a negative if a patient is trying
to determine whether to get treated.” They may believe a better solution lies
in the near future, when in fact it could be years out.
promises warily, fearing that they might prompt afflicted people to delay
necessary procedures. “One issue that has come up time and time again is the
ethics around creating false hope” around unknown timelines, said Gilja, the
UCSD professor and former Neuralink employee. “Creating hope in a patient
population can be a good thing, but it can be a negative if a patient is trying
to determine whether to get treated.” They may believe a better solution lies
in the near future, when in fact it could be years out.
Musk doesn’t claim that Neuralink can do everything. Over
the years, he has ignored questions ranging from the creepy (such as whether it
will facilitate head transplants) to the quotidian (such as whether it will
help with balance). “What will Neuralink do for the culinary arts?” asked one
tweeter. Musk’s answer: silence.
the years, he has ignored questions ranging from the creepy (such as whether it
will facilitate head transplants) to the quotidian (such as whether it will
help with balance). “What will Neuralink do for the culinary arts?” asked one
tweeter. Musk’s answer: silence.
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - LIBOR vs. SOFR - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - LIBOR vs. SOFR - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
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FC104: The Color of Television
FC104: The Color of Television
FC104: The Color of Television
Plus, nano-diamond batteries, hummingbird gymnastics, and
good news on Chinese fishing fleets, US immigration and afforestation in Niger.
good news on Chinese fishing fleets, US immigration and afforestation in Niger.
Future Crunch
Future Crunch
27 Aug 2020
Good news you probably didn't hear about 🌈
Africa is officially free from wild polio. 25 years ago it
paralysed more than 75,000 children across the continent. Since then, billions
of oral vaccines have been provided, preventing 1.8 million cases. It's one of
the greatest healthcare success stories of all time. If you get a chance today
just pause, and take a little moment to appreciate this extraordinary
achievement. BBC
paralysed more than 75,000 children across the continent. Since then, billions
of oral vaccines have been provided, preventing 1.8 million cases. It's one of
the greatest healthcare success stories of all time. If you get a chance today
just pause, and take a little moment to appreciate this extraordinary
achievement. BBC
It's election season, so naturally this one didn't make
headlines. Since 1965, Gallup has been polling Americans about whether they
want immigration levels to decrease, increase, or remain the same. In 2020, for
the first time in the poll’s history, more Americans said they wanted to
increase immigration than decrease it. Cato
headlines. Since 1965, Gallup has been polling Americans about whether they
want immigration levels to decrease, increase, or remain the same. In 2020, for
the first time in the poll’s history, more Americans said they wanted to
increase immigration than decrease it. Cato
In perhaps one of the most globally consequential yet under-reported
stories of the year, China has issued new rules for its distant water fishing
fleet. The country's Wildlife Protection Law will now apply at sea, ships will
no longer be allowed to 'go dark' or approach marine protected areas, ship
captains who break the rules will lose their license for five years and company
managers will be banned for three years. Earth.org
stories of the year, China has issued new rules for its distant water fishing
fleet. The country's Wildlife Protection Law will now apply at sea, ships will
no longer be allowed to 'go dark' or approach marine protected areas, ship
captains who break the rules will lose their license for five years and company
managers will be banned for three years. Earth.org
A series of studies in the US, the UK and 26 other countries
has shown that loneliness during the pandemic has not only leveled out but, in
certain cases, improved. People have found ways to maintain social connection,
and there's been a renewed appreciation for the importance of relationships. If
these trends continue, the social recession many feared could turn out to be a
social revolution. Scientific American
has shown that loneliness during the pandemic has not only leveled out but, in
certain cases, improved. People have found ways to maintain social connection,
and there's been a renewed appreciation for the importance of relationships. If
these trends continue, the social recession many feared could turn out to be a
social revolution. Scientific American
Since the 1970s, more than 90,000 km2 of desert in Niger has
been regreened, thanks to a technique known as farmer-managed natural
regeneration. These huge forests of thorny trees are now productive farmland,
yielding over a million more tons of grain than before. A desolate land, once
bereft of life and on its way to desertification, has been utterly transformed.
Mongabay
been regreened, thanks to a technique known as farmer-managed natural
regeneration. These huge forests of thorny trees are now productive farmland,
yielding over a million more tons of grain than before. A desolate land, once
bereft of life and on its way to desertification, has been utterly transformed.
Mongabay
field of crops with trees in it
Maize growing under tall Faidherbia trees. Image via World
Agroforestry.
Agroforestry.
Indistinguishable from magic 🐇
A company in California is claiming it's developed
'nano-diamond' batteries, powered by nuclear waste. Their energy density blows
everything else out the water, lasting decades without needing a charge. We're
watching this one closely - if they figure out a way to turn their proof of
concept into a commercial product, all bets are off. New Atlas
'nano-diamond' batteries, powered by nuclear waste. Their energy density blows
everything else out the water, lasting decades without needing a charge. We're
watching this one closely - if they figure out a way to turn their proof of
concept into a commercial product, all bets are off. New Atlas
Researchers in Wales have used a new X-ray scanning
technique to digitally dissect three 2,000 year old mummified animals - a house
cat, a kestrel and a cobra. The 3D images have a resolution 100 times greater
than a medical CT scan, allowing the remains to be analyzed right down to their
smallest bones and teeth. Sci Tech
technique to digitally dissect three 2,000 year old mummified animals - a house
cat, a kestrel and a cobra. The 3D images have a resolution 100 times greater
than a medical CT scan, allowing the remains to be analyzed right down to their
smallest bones and teeth. Sci Tech
Chalk another one up to science fiction. An AI technique
originally invented to play Atari video games has just been used to defeat one
of the world's best F-16 fighter pilots in a simulated aerial dogfight. The
algorithm's edge came from its ability to ignore G-force, and its 'superhuman'
aiming (and the system is capable of running on a single chip). Wired
originally invented to play Atari video games has just been used to defeat one
of the world's best F-16 fighter pilots in a simulated aerial dogfight. The
algorithm's edge came from its ability to ignore G-force, and its 'superhuman'
aiming (and the system is capable of running on a single chip). Wired
Confronted with Japan’s chronic labour shortage, one of the
country's largest construction companies is building a giant dam with robots.
Remote-controlled cranes will pour concrete into slabs to build the dam up in
layers, with humans acting as overseers instead of workers. "By
transferring expert techniques to machines, we're able to analyze what was once
implicit knowledge." Interesting Engineering
country's largest construction companies is building a giant dam with robots.
Remote-controlled cranes will pour concrete into slabs to build the dam up in
layers, with humans acting as overseers instead of workers. "By
transferring expert techniques to machines, we're able to analyze what was once
implicit knowledge." Interesting Engineering
Biologists were curious about how hummingbirds, who make
their nests behind waterfalls, pass through the heavy sheets of water. When
they used a high speed camera the results surprised everyone. Rather than
flying head on the birds lead with one wing while the other remains free to
generate thrust, allowing them to pierce the veil in 0.1 seconds. "Nothing
in the literature could predict that." Science Alert
their nests behind waterfalls, pass through the heavy sheets of water. When
they used a high speed camera the results surprised everyone. Rather than
flying head on the birds lead with one wing while the other remains free to
generate thrust, allowing them to pierce the veil in 0.1 seconds. "Nothing
in the literature could predict that." Science Alert
Hummingbird flying through waterfall
Hey girl. You make my heart beat 1,200 times a minute.
Off the beaten track in the Dark Forest 📡
"The sky above the port was the color of television,
tuned to a dead channel." So begins one of the most influential books of
the 20th century, in which the world would first gaze upon the future in all
its awe and horror, and which its author confessed was written in a “blind
animal panic". Elizabeth Sandifer goes deep on the birth of cyberpunk, and
it's excellent stuff. Eruditorum Press
tuned to a dead channel." So begins one of the most influential books of
the 20th century, in which the world would first gaze upon the future in all
its awe and horror, and which its author confessed was written in a “blind
animal panic". Elizabeth Sandifer goes deep on the birth of cyberpunk, and
it's excellent stuff. Eruditorum Press
Mehr Nadeem on the rise of Saudi Arabia's female gamers.
"The hall flooded with nearly 3,000 women, some as young as 13 and others
in their 50s. It was only when the women walked through the doors into the
all-female space that their abayas slipped off to reveal an array of cosplay
costumes." Rest of World (doing such great reporting at the moment).
"The hall flooded with nearly 3,000 women, some as young as 13 and others
in their 50s. It was only when the women walked through the doors into the
all-female space that their abayas slipped off to reveal an array of cosplay
costumes." Rest of World (doing such great reporting at the moment).
The streaming wars have finally caught up with Hollywood,
and it's looking ugly. There's a changing of the guard happening right now and
the studio bosses appear to have lost their central place in the American power
structure. To be honest it's hard to feel sorry for any of the people in this
article. Good riddance. NYT
and it's looking ugly. There's a changing of the guard happening right now and
the studio bosses appear to have lost their central place in the American power
structure. To be honest it's hard to feel sorry for any of the people in this
article. Good riddance. NYT
Just because it's natural, doesn't mean it's good. Smallpox
is natural. Vaccines aren't. Gangrene, parasitism, animal rape, baby murder,
siblicide, matricide, and cannibalism—all bona fide natural. Evolutionary
biologist David P. Barash explores the dark side of evolution, warning us that
while it's a wonderful thing to learn about, it's a terrible thing to learn
from. Nautilus
is natural. Vaccines aren't. Gangrene, parasitism, animal rape, baby murder,
siblicide, matricide, and cannibalism—all bona fide natural. Evolutionary
biologist David P. Barash explores the dark side of evolution, warning us that
while it's a wonderful thing to learn about, it's a terrible thing to learn
from. Nautilus
Naomi Klein isn't really our cup of tea. She bangs the drums
of doom a little too enthusiastically for our liking. However in this article
she makes an excellent point: we're ignoring young people during this pandemic,
to our detriment. "Young people can do more than go to school or stay
home; they can also contribute enormously to the healing of their
communities." The Intercept
of doom a little too enthusiastically for our liking. However in this article
she makes an excellent point: we're ignoring young people during this pandemic,
to our detriment. "Young people can do more than go to school or stay
home; they can also contribute enormously to the healing of their
communities." The Intercept
Human: Kind 🌏
Meet Susan Somali, who runs the Pejaten Animal Shelter in
Jakarta. It's home to over 1,400 animals, which Susan and her team rescue from
the streets and butcher shops. They have a policy of never turning an animal
away - no matter how stretched their resources are they'll always take on new
arrivals. At the same time, the 55-year-old mother of two is on the frontline
battling COVID-19 as a clinical pathologist. She works in a laboratory that
tests samples for the coronavirus and other illnesses.
Jakarta. It's home to over 1,400 animals, which Susan and her team rescue from
the streets and butcher shops. They have a policy of never turning an animal
away - no matter how stretched their resources are they'll always take on new
arrivals. At the same time, the 55-year-old mother of two is on the frontline
battling COVID-19 as a clinical pathologist. She works in a laboratory that
tests samples for the coronavirus and other illnesses.
Susan started the shelter in an upscale Jakarta
neighbourhood more than a decade ago. “Whenever I saw an animal in distress I
always took them home with me. As a child, I would do that during my commute
from school. As a young woman, I would do that during my way home from
university and now on my way back from work”. Channel News Asia
neighbourhood more than a decade ago. “Whenever I saw an animal in distress I
always took them home with me. As a child, I would do that during my commute
from school. As a young woman, I would do that during my way home from
university and now on my way back from work”. Channel News Asia
Woman cuddling two dogs
Susan Somali
Give a damn 💖
A few months ago we sent A$9,000 to the Friendship Bench, a
charity in Zimbabwe that trains grandmothers as counsellors. We just got an
update:
charity in Zimbabwe that trains grandmothers as counsellors. We just got an
update:
With your money we brought 25 tablets with which we are
starting a pilot with a group of Grandmothers - back to school it seems! We
developed an app to help them deliver the Shona language screening tool for
depression that we use here and then also for data collection so we can monitor
the intervention. The app is on the tablets and we are beyond excited to see if
the Grandmothers can grasp the use, we are 99.9% they will, they must have
grandchildren who they can get extra lessons from at home.
starting a pilot with a group of Grandmothers - back to school it seems! We
developed an app to help them deliver the Shona language screening tool for
depression that we use here and then also for data collection so we can monitor
the intervention. The app is on the tablets and we are beyond excited to see if
the Grandmothers can grasp the use, we are 99.9% they will, they must have
grandchildren who they can get extra lessons from at home.
Once we know they can manage we will buy some more until all
our Grandmothers become tech-savvy. They get very happy and become motivated
when there are new things to learn. There is still a bit of money left, so once
stores open again we will purchase simple smart phones for our supervisors so
that they can support the Grandmothers to deliver problem-solving therapy via
WhatsApp. This pilot would not have been possible without the donation from
Future Crunch."
our Grandmothers become tech-savvy. They get very happy and become motivated
when there are new things to learn. There is still a bit of money left, so once
stores open again we will purchase simple smart phones for our supervisors so
that they can support the Grandmothers to deliver problem-solving therapy via
WhatsApp. This pilot would not have been possible without the donation from
Future Crunch."
Kindest Regards,
Jean, Ruth & the tech-savvy Grandmothers
Grandmother learning how to use iPads
That's it for this edition, thanks for reading.
Remember. Optimism is a choice you make and a skill you
develop. The mind is just as malleable as the body. We spend so much time and
effort trying to change the external world, other people and our own bodies,
while accepting that our minds just are the way they are. We accept the voice
in our head as the source of all truth.
develop. The mind is just as malleable as the body. We spend so much time and
effort trying to change the external world, other people and our own bodies,
while accepting that our minds just are the way they are. We accept the voice
in our head as the source of all truth.
But all of it is malleable, and every day is new.
We'll see you next week
FC HQ
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Coronavirus in Vacant Apartment Suggests Toilets’ Role in Spread - Bloomberg
Coronavirus in Vacant Apartment Suggests Toilets’ Role in Spread - Bloomberg
Prognosis
Coronavirus in Vacant
Apartment Suggests Toilets’ Role in Spread
Apartment Suggests Toilets’ Role in Spread
By Jason Gale
August 26, 2020, 2:40 PM GMT+1
The discovery of coronavirus in the bathroom of an
unoccupied apartment in Guangzhou, China, suggests the airborne pathogen may
have wafted upwards through drain pipes, an echo of a large SARS outbreak in
Hong Kong 17 years ago.
unoccupied apartment in Guangzhou, China, suggests the airborne pathogen may
have wafted upwards through drain pipes, an echo of a large SARS outbreak in
Hong Kong 17 years ago.
Traces of SARS-CoV-2 were detected in February on the sink,
faucet and shower handle of a long-vacant apartment, researchers at the Chinese
Center for Disease Control and Prevention said in a study published this month
in Environment International. The contaminated bathroom was directly above the
home of five people confirmed a week earlier to have Covid-19.
faucet and shower handle of a long-vacant apartment, researchers at the Chinese
Center for Disease Control and Prevention said in a study published this month
in Environment International. The contaminated bathroom was directly above the
home of five people confirmed a week earlier to have Covid-19.
The scientists conducted “an on-site tracer simulation
experiment” to see whether the virus could be spread through waste pipes via
tiny airborne particles that can be created by the force of a toilet flush.
They found such particles, called aerosols, in bathrooms 10 and 12 levels above the Covid-19 cases. Two cases were
confirmed on each of those floors in early February, raising concern that
SARS-CoV-2-laden particles from stool had drifted into their homes via
plumbing.
experiment” to see whether the virus could be spread through waste pipes via
tiny airborne particles that can be created by the force of a toilet flush.
They found such particles, called aerosols, in bathrooms 10 and 12 levels above the Covid-19 cases. Two cases were
confirmed on each of those floors in early February, raising concern that
SARS-CoV-2-laden particles from stool had drifted into their homes via
plumbing.
The new report is reminiscent of a case at Hong Kong’s Amoy Gardens private
housing estate almost two decades ago, when 329 residents caught severe acute
respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in part because of faulty sewage pipelines.
Forty-two residents died, making it the most devastating community outbreak of
SARS, which is also caused by a coronavirus.
housing estate almost two decades ago, when 329 residents caught severe acute
respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in part because of faulty sewage pipelines.
Forty-two residents died, making it the most devastating community outbreak of
SARS, which is also caused by a coronavirus.
“Although transmission via the shared elevator cannot be
excluded, this event is consistent with the findings of the Amoy Gardens SARS
outbreak in Hong Kong in 2003,” Song Tang, a scientist with the China CDC Key
Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, and colleagues wrote in the
study, which cited unpublished data from China CDC.
excluded, this event is consistent with the findings of the Amoy Gardens SARS
outbreak in Hong Kong in 2003,” Song Tang, a scientist with the China CDC Key
Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, and colleagues wrote in the
study, which cited unpublished data from China CDC.
Apartments in multistory buildings may be linked via a
shared wastewater system, said Lidia Morawska, director of the International
Laboratory for Air Quality and Health at Australia’s Queensland University of
Technology. While solids and liquids descend the network, sewer gases -- often
detectable by their odor -- sometimes rise through pipes, said Morawska, who
wasn’t part of the research team.
shared wastewater system, said Lidia Morawska, director of the International
Laboratory for Air Quality and Health at Australia’s Queensland University of
Technology. While solids and liquids descend the network, sewer gases -- often
detectable by their odor -- sometimes rise through pipes, said Morawska, who
wasn’t part of the research team.
“If there’s smell,
it means that somehow air has been transported to where it shouldn’t go,”
Morawska said in an interview.
it means that somehow air has been transported to where it shouldn’t go,”
Morawska said in an interview.
Respiratory Droplets
SARS-CoV-2 spreads mainly through respiratory droplets --
spatters of saliva or discharge from the nose, according to the World Health
Organization. Since the first weeks of the pandemic, however, scientists in
China have said infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus in the stool of Covid-19 patients
may also play a role in transmission. A February study of 73 patients
hospitalized with the coronavirus in Guangdong province found more than half
tested positive for the virus in their stool.
spatters of saliva or discharge from the nose, according to the World Health
Organization. Since the first weeks of the pandemic, however, scientists in
China have said infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus in the stool of Covid-19 patients
may also play a role in transmission. A February study of 73 patients
hospitalized with the coronavirus in Guangdong province found more than half
tested positive for the virus in their stool.
How Do People Catch Covid-19? Here’s What Experts Say:
QuickTake
QuickTake
Previous research has shown that toilet flushes can generate
germ-laden aerosols from the excreta, the China CDC scientists said. Those
particles can remain in the air for long periods and be dispersed over
distances of more than 1 meter (3 feet), particularly in confined, poorly
ventilated spaces.
germ-laden aerosols from the excreta, the China CDC scientists said. Those
particles can remain in the air for long periods and be dispersed over
distances of more than 1 meter (3 feet), particularly in confined, poorly
ventilated spaces.
Fecal aerosolization occurred with SARS, and it’s possible
that it may rarely occur with SARS-CoV-2, depending on sewage systems, said
Malik Peiris, chair of virology at the University of Hong Kong’s School of
Public Health. The China CDC study found traces of virus, “which is not the
same thing as infectious virus,” he said. “But one has to keep the possibility
in mind.”
that it may rarely occur with SARS-CoV-2, depending on sewage systems, said
Malik Peiris, chair of virology at the University of Hong Kong’s School of
Public Health. The China CDC study found traces of virus, “which is not the
same thing as infectious virus,” he said. “But one has to keep the possibility
in mind.”
Fecal Plume
In the Amoy Gardens
case, warm, moist air from the bathroom of a SARS patient excreting “extremely
high concentrations” of virus in feces and urine established a plume in an air
shaft that spread the airborne virus to other apartments, research showed.
case, warm, moist air from the bathroom of a SARS patient excreting “extremely
high concentrations” of virus in feces and urine established a plume in an air
shaft that spread the airborne virus to other apartments, research showed.
Although toilets are a daily necessity, they “may promote
fecal-derived aerosol transmission if used improperly, particularly in
hospitals,” the China CDC researchers said. They cited a fluid-dynamics
simulation that showed a “massive upward transport of virus aerosol particles”
during flushing, leading to large-scale virus spread indoors.
fecal-derived aerosol transmission if used improperly, particularly in
hospitals,” the China CDC researchers said. They cited a fluid-dynamics
simulation that showed a “massive upward transport of virus aerosol particles”
during flushing, leading to large-scale virus spread indoors.
“The study finds high plausibility for airborne transmission
and outlines the evidence in great detail,” said Raina MacIntyre, professor of
global biosecurity at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, who was part
of an international team invited to collaborate with China CDC on the study.
and outlines the evidence in great detail,” said Raina MacIntyre, professor of
global biosecurity at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, who was part
of an international team invited to collaborate with China CDC on the study.
Previous investigations confirmed that SARS-CoV-2 genetic
material was found on toilets used by Covid-19 patients, in the air in hospital
nurses’ stations, on air outlet vents, and multiple other sites. The extent to
which fecal aerosol plumes are infecting people with the SARS-CoV-2 virus isn’t
known, said Queensland’s Morawska.
material was found on toilets used by Covid-19 patients, in the air in hospital
nurses’ stations, on air outlet vents, and multiple other sites. The extent to
which fecal aerosol plumes are infecting people with the SARS-CoV-2 virus isn’t
known, said Queensland’s Morawska.
“There are lots of situations where things happen and are
pretty unusual,” said Morawska, who was part of a team that investigated the
Amoy Gardens contagion. Scientists should investigate the “unusual situations”
because, by understanding them, they may find “they’re not that unusual.”
pretty unusual,” said Morawska, who was part of a team that investigated the
Amoy Gardens contagion. Scientists should investigate the “unusual situations”
because, by understanding them, they may find “they’re not that unusual.”
N.J. Budget’s $1 Billion in New Taxes Targets Millionaires - Bloomberg
N.J. Budget’s $1 Billion in New Taxes Targets Millionaires - Bloomberg
New Jersey Budget Eyes $1 Billion in
New Taxes, Most From Millionaires
New Taxes, Most From Millionaires
By Elise Young and Danielle Moran
August 25, 2020, 3:19 PM GMT+1 Updated on August 25, 2020,
6:55 PM GMT+1
6:55 PM GMT+1
Borrowing for revenue
drops by more than half, to $4 billion
drops by more than half, to $4 billion
Shortened nine-month
fiscal year looking brighter after all
fiscal year looking brighter after all
Phil Murphy
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy on Tuesday proposed more
than $1 billion in new taxes -- mostly from millionaires -- and $4
billion in borrowing to support spending after the novel coronavirus sent
revenue plunging.
than $1 billion in new taxes -- mostly from millionaires -- and $4
billion in borrowing to support spending after the novel coronavirus sent
revenue plunging.
The governor, a first-term Democrat and retired Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. senior director, would make a record pension payment and
boost the surplus. He also counts on $1.25 billion in spending
reductions during an unprecedented budget cycle, shortened to nine months.
Sachs Group Inc. senior director, would make a record pension payment and
boost the surplus. He also counts on $1.25 billion in spending
reductions during an unprecedented budget cycle, shortened to nine months.
The overall spending plan is less bleak than Murphy’s
earlier doomsday assessment of finances in a state hit harder than most by the
virus. He plans no cuts to
school and municipal aid and intends to restore funding for the popular
Homestead Benefit and Senior Freeze property-tax abatement programs.
earlier doomsday assessment of finances in a state hit harder than most by the
virus. He plans no cuts to
school and municipal aid and intends to restore funding for the popular
Homestead Benefit and Senior Freeze property-tax abatement programs.
He also proposes “baby
bonds,” or $1,000 gifts for infants from low-income families. The
proceeds could be withdrawn at age 18 for education, home buying or to
“pursue other wealth-generating activities,” according to budget documents.
That would cost the state about $72 million.
bonds,” or $1,000 gifts for infants from low-income families. The
proceeds could be withdrawn at age 18 for education, home buying or to
“pursue other wealth-generating activities,” according to budget documents.
That would cost the state about $72 million.
Though Murphy won a fight in the state’s highest court this
month to borrow as much as $9.9 billion to fill revenue holes, he’s now
counting on using less than half that. Still, if the revenue doesn’t
materialize to repay those bonds, New Jerseyans would face higher sales and
property taxes.
month to borrow as much as $9.9 billion to fill revenue holes, he’s now
counting on using less than half that. Still, if the revenue doesn’t
materialize to repay those bonds, New Jerseyans would face higher sales and
property taxes.
Historic Crisis
“Besides setting off an unprecedented public health crisis,
this pandemic also unleashed an economic crisis that can only be rivaled by two
other times in our state’s entire 244-year history: the Great Depression and
the Civil War,” Murphy said at SHI Stadium at Rutgers University in Piscataway.
this pandemic also unleashed an economic crisis that can only be rivaled by two
other times in our state’s entire 244-year history: the Great Depression and
the Civil War,” Murphy said at SHI Stadium at Rutgers University in Piscataway.
The open-air venue was chosen over the Trenton statehouse to
reduce the chance of viral transmission. Almost 16,000 deaths in New Jersey
have a lab-confirmed or probable coronavirus link, and Murphy has yet to reopen indoor dining, gyms and
theaters.
reduce the chance of viral transmission. Almost 16,000 deaths in New Jersey
have a lab-confirmed or probable coronavirus link, and Murphy has yet to reopen indoor dining, gyms and
theaters.
Since March, 1.4 million unemployment claims have been
filed. In June, the jobless rate hit 16.8%, while the Great Recession’s peak
was 9.8%.
filed. In June, the jobless rate hit 16.8%, while the Great Recession’s peak
was 9.8%.
In 12 months during that crisis, sales tax revenue declined
by $672 million. In just four months of the pandemic, it dropped $505 million.
The current fiscal year has a $1.44
billion revenue shortfall, led by sales and use tax declines.
by $672 million. In just four months of the pandemic, it dropped $505 million.
The current fiscal year has a $1.44
billion revenue shortfall, led by sales and use tax declines.
Record Payment
The fiscal 2021 budget amount, $34.91 billion, is an
anomaly: It covers Oct. 1, 2020 through June 30, 2021, nine months that follow
a 15-month year. The typical cycle is 12 months; the state extended it to
reflect a delayed tax deadline and to allow flexibility after revenue plummeted
when Murphy closed nonessential businesses March 21.
anomaly: It covers Oct. 1, 2020 through June 30, 2021, nine months that follow
a 15-month year. The typical cycle is 12 months; the state extended it to
reflect a delayed tax deadline and to allow flexibility after revenue plummeted
when Murphy closed nonessential businesses March 21.
The governor pledges a $4.89 billion pension contribution, a 32% increase over the current fiscal year.
Although a record high, the amount is 20% short of the actuarially required
payment, the fallout after previous governors from both parties skipped or
shorted contributions, increasing the burden.
Although a record high, the amount is 20% short of the actuarially required
payment, the fallout after previous governors from both parties skipped or
shorted contributions, increasing the burden.
Murphy’s budget also leaves a $2.24 billion fund balance --
8% higher than that for the extended fiscal year -- “a much-needed cushion
against revenue shocks from a second wave,” the governor said.
8% higher than that for the extended fiscal year -- “a much-needed cushion
against revenue shocks from a second wave,” the governor said.
Eric Friedland, director of municipal bond research at
Jersey City-based Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC called the spending plan “very
measured” by incorporating revenue increases and spending cuts. He also noted
the state didn’t include potential congressional stimulus aid, which has
been scuttled by a partisan stalemate in Washington.
Jersey City-based Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC called the spending plan “very
measured” by incorporating revenue increases and spending cuts. He also noted
the state didn’t include potential congressional stimulus aid, which has
been scuttled by a partisan stalemate in Washington.
“There are some states out there that are factoring in large
amounts of further stimulus money into their budgets, if they don’t get it will
have to take some pretty dramatic actions,” said Friedland, whose employer has
$30 billion in municipal bonds under management, including New Jersey debt.
“New Jersey is willing to swallow some of the medicine now by imposing revenue
increases and taking some cuts.”
amounts of further stimulus money into their budgets, if they don’t get it will
have to take some pretty dramatic actions,” said Friedland, whose employer has
$30 billion in municipal bonds under management, including New Jersey debt.
“New Jersey is willing to swallow some of the medicine now by imposing revenue
increases and taking some cuts.”
The budget marks the third time -- fourth, if counting
Murphy’s scuttled February plan -- that the governor has proposed a
millionaires tax. Each time it was blocked by Senate President Steve Sweeney, a
fellow Democrat who has cited New Jersey’s highest-in-the-nation property
taxes, averaging $8,767 last year, and other steep living costs.
Murphy’s scuttled February plan -- that the governor has proposed a
millionaires tax. Each time it was blocked by Senate President Steve Sweeney, a
fellow Democrat who has cited New Jersey’s highest-in-the-nation property
taxes, averaging $8,767 last year, and other steep living costs.
The new marginal tax
rate on such earners, 10.75% rather than 8.97%, would apply to every
dollar in excess of $1 million. Murphy anticipates raising $390 million,
the biggest amount among the proposed new levies. The higher rate already applies to those earning $5 million or more, a
change Murphy put into effect for the 2018 tax year.
rate on such earners, 10.75% rather than 8.97%, would apply to every
dollar in excess of $1 million. Murphy anticipates raising $390 million,
the biggest amount among the proposed new levies. The higher rate already applies to those earning $5 million or more, a
change Murphy put into effect for the 2018 tax year.
Political Will
“This might be the year he succeeds -- he has the political
will and the political argument to voters for this tax,” Dora Lee, director of
research for Belle Haven Investments, said in an interview. Belle Haven, in Rye
Brook, New York, has $12.9 billion in assets under management, including New
Jersey debt.
will and the political argument to voters for this tax,” Dora Lee, director of
research for Belle Haven Investments, said in an interview. Belle Haven, in Rye
Brook, New York, has $12.9 billion in assets under management, including New
Jersey debt.
The Democratic-controlled legislature must approve the
budget before Murphy signs it. State Senator Paul Sarlo, a Wood-Ridge Democrat
and chairman of the Senate budget committee, said he was “confident that we can
come together on a spending plan that makes the most of limited resources and
does the best to address the needs of New Jersey in a time of crisis,”
according to a statement issued by his office.
budget before Murphy signs it. State Senator Paul Sarlo, a Wood-Ridge Democrat
and chairman of the Senate budget committee, said he was “confident that we can
come together on a spending plan that makes the most of limited resources and
does the best to address the needs of New Jersey in a time of crisis,”
according to a statement issued by his office.
Four Republican committee members, though, criticized Murphy
in a joint statement.
in a joint statement.
“He wants to borrow billions, which will compound to
billions more in interest and fees, to support a budget that demonstrates not
one shred of creative cost-cutting reform,” said Senator Declan O’Scanlon of
Little Silver.
billions more in interest and fees, to support a budget that demonstrates not
one shred of creative cost-cutting reform,” said Senator Declan O’Scanlon of
Little Silver.
Business Surtax
In all, Murphy anticipates $1.02 billion from new taxes. The
budget proposes making permanent a 2.5%
corporate business surtax, to raise $210 million; a cigarette-tax boost to $4.35 per pack,
for $143.1 million; a higher fee
for health-maintenance organizations, for $102.7 million; a surcharge
for those with qualified business income
greater than $1 million, for $75 million; and higher rates on limousine services, yacht and boat sales and
firearm and ammunition taxes, for $26.3 million.
budget proposes making permanent a 2.5%
corporate business surtax, to raise $210 million; a cigarette-tax boost to $4.35 per pack,
for $143.1 million; a higher fee
for health-maintenance organizations, for $102.7 million; a surcharge
for those with qualified business income
greater than $1 million, for $75 million; and higher rates on limousine services, yacht and boat sales and
firearm and ammunition taxes, for $26.3 million.
For the 12 months ending June 30, 2021, New Jersey will have
budgeted $42.57 billion. The fiscal 2021 spending plan that Murphy proposed on
Feb. 25, prior to New Jersey’s first reported coronavirus case, was $40.9
billion.
budgeted $42.57 billion. The fiscal 2021 spending plan that Murphy proposed on
Feb. 25, prior to New Jersey’s first reported coronavirus case, was $40.9
billion.
To make up for lost revenue, the governor has said the state
needs tens of billions of dollars from borrowing, including from the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s municipal liquidity fund, plus as-yet-uncertain federal
grants.
needs tens of billions of dollars from borrowing, including from the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s municipal liquidity fund, plus as-yet-uncertain federal
grants.
(Updates with “baby bonds” for low-income families in fourth
paragraph)
paragraph)
Have a confidential tip for our reporters?
Why a Historic Eviction Wave Is Bearing Down on U.S.: QuickTake - Bloomberg
Why a Historic Eviction Wave Is Bearing Down on U.S.: QuickTake - Bloomberg
Why a Historic Eviction Wave Is
Bearing Down on U.S.
Bearing Down on U.S.
By Noah Buhayar
August 26, 2020, 5:00 AM GMT+1
Cars with sign 'Cancel Rent' are seen driving around
downtown Los Angeles during a protest to cancel rent and avoid evictions, on
Aug. 21. Photographer: Valerie Macon/AFP via Getty Images
downtown Los Angeles during a protest to cancel rent and avoid evictions, on
Aug. 21. Photographer: Valerie Macon/AFP via Getty Images
With more than 16 million people in the U.S. out of work,
Americans are having to stretch financially to keep the roof over their heads.
According to the Census Bureau, about a
third of renters said in July that
they had no confidence or slight confidence in their ability to pay for housing in August. With Republicans and Democrats in a
stalemate over whether to extend an eviction moratorium and supplemental unemployment benefits,
experts are warning that the country is poised for an eviction crisis of
historic proportions.
Americans are having to stretch financially to keep the roof over their heads.
According to the Census Bureau, about a
third of renters said in July that
they had no confidence or slight confidence in their ability to pay for housing in August. With Republicans and Democrats in a
stalemate over whether to extend an eviction moratorium and supplemental unemployment benefits,
experts are warning that the country is poised for an eviction crisis of
historic proportions.
1. How many people could face eviction?
About 30 million Americans are “at risk” of being evicted
in coming months because they can’t pay rent, according to a review of the
Census survey data by the Aspen Institute Financial Security Program and the
Covid-19 Eviction Defense Project, a coalition of researchers. Management
consultant Stout Risius Ross, in its analysis of the Census data, put the
number at 40 million. Eviction is a legal process, and the burden on
landlords differs by state. But the mere threat of eviction often is enough for
landlords to get someone to move out. Many landlords have been working with
tenants in the hopes that more emergency rental assistance is on its way.
Absent that help, the U.S. is heading for a massive wave of housing
displacement and insecurity. More people will double up with family or end
up homeless.
in coming months because they can’t pay rent, according to a review of the
Census survey data by the Aspen Institute Financial Security Program and the
Covid-19 Eviction Defense Project, a coalition of researchers. Management
consultant Stout Risius Ross, in its analysis of the Census data, put the
number at 40 million. Eviction is a legal process, and the burden on
landlords differs by state. But the mere threat of eviction often is enough for
landlords to get someone to move out. Many landlords have been working with
tenants in the hopes that more emergency rental assistance is on its way.
Absent that help, the U.S. is heading for a massive wave of housing
displacement and insecurity. More people will double up with family or end
up homeless.
2. Will this all happen at once?
It may take a few months for evictions to ramp up. Filings
actually slowed in many places during the first few months of the pandemic.
Many courts were closed and a
patchwork of federal, state and local moratoriums
prevented evictions in many cases. The federal
moratorium expired on July 24, and landlords had 30 days to
notify tenants if they wanted to evict them, meaning Aug. 24 was the earliest date at which the floodgates could open.
As of the end of July, 30 states
lacked state-level protections against eviction during the pandemic.
But even in states where there are bans, they do little to clear people’s
debts. Many now owe so much in back rent that they won’t be able to catch up,
pushing landlords to evict them when restrictions lift.
actually slowed in many places during the first few months of the pandemic.
Many courts were closed and a
patchwork of federal, state and local moratoriums
prevented evictions in many cases. The federal
moratorium expired on July 24, and landlords had 30 days to
notify tenants if they wanted to evict them, meaning Aug. 24 was the earliest date at which the floodgates could open.
As of the end of July, 30 states
lacked state-level protections against eviction during the pandemic.
But even in states where there are bans, they do little to clear people’s
debts. Many now owe so much in back rent that they won’t be able to catch up,
pushing landlords to evict them when restrictions lift.
3. What’s being done to avert this?
On Aug. 8, President Donald Trump signed an executive order
pledging to “take all lawful measures to prevent residential evictions and
foreclosures resulting from financial hardships caused by Covid-19.” But that
measure didn’t authorize any specific action. Real relief would have to come
from Congress, and that means money -- lots of it. House Democrats have passed a plan that would provide $100 billion in rental assistance and
ban evictions, but that’s stuck in stalled negotiation with Republicans on a
new stimulus package; the Senate Republican plan for virus relief didn’t
address evictions. Some cities, states and the private sector have
established funds to help people pay rent.
pledging to “take all lawful measures to prevent residential evictions and
foreclosures resulting from financial hardships caused by Covid-19.” But that
measure didn’t authorize any specific action. Real relief would have to come
from Congress, and that means money -- lots of it. House Democrats have passed a plan that would provide $100 billion in rental assistance and
ban evictions, but that’s stuck in stalled negotiation with Republicans on a
new stimulus package; the Senate Republican plan for virus relief didn’t
address evictions. Some cities, states and the private sector have
established funds to help people pay rent.
4. Why would a landlord evict someone at a time of high
unemployment?
unemployment?
Landlords need to collect rent to cover their
expenses, including mortgage payments
and property taxes. Many also pay
for utilities. Keeping non-paying tenants around can incur operating costs
without generating any revenue. Property owners also worry that letting a
renter live in a unit for free or reduced rent could encourage other tenants
in a building to withhold some of their payments. Landlords may also be
betting that they can fill empty units. Going into the pandemic, there was a
severe shortage of affordable rental housing across the U.S. that was driving
up rents faster than incomes. Vacancy rates were at decades-long lows.
expenses, including mortgage payments
and property taxes. Many also pay
for utilities. Keeping non-paying tenants around can incur operating costs
without generating any revenue. Property owners also worry that letting a
renter live in a unit for free or reduced rent could encourage other tenants
in a building to withhold some of their payments. Landlords may also be
betting that they can fill empty units. Going into the pandemic, there was a
severe shortage of affordable rental housing across the U.S. that was driving
up rents faster than incomes. Vacancy rates were at decades-long lows.
5. Who gets hurt?
Studies show that evictions affect Black and Latinx renters
at much higher rates than White people. Renters with children are also more
likely to be forced out of their home than those without. Getting evicted can
make it harder for people to find a new place to live, because landlords often
don’t want to rent to them. Smaller property owners with
fewer financial resources may get squeezed, too, if they can’t collect
enough rent to cover mortgages, property taxes and maintenance. A wave of
foreclosures on these properties could gut the nation’s affordable
housing stock, hurt city budgets and put
strain on the banking system.
at much higher rates than White people. Renters with children are also more
likely to be forced out of their home than those without. Getting evicted can
make it harder for people to find a new place to live, because landlords often
don’t want to rent to them. Smaller property owners with
fewer financial resources may get squeezed, too, if they can’t collect
enough rent to cover mortgages, property taxes and maintenance. A wave of
foreclosures on these properties could gut the nation’s affordable
housing stock, hurt city budgets and put
strain on the banking system.
6. Is this a U.S.-only problem?
No. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has twice extended a
ban on evictions in England and Wales, and most British renters will be
afforded a six-month eviction notice period to give them extra time to address
financial hardship. France temporarily extended an annual wintertime ban on
evictions.
ban on evictions in England and Wales, and most British renters will be
afforded a six-month eviction notice period to give them extra time to address
financial hardship. France temporarily extended an annual wintertime ban on
evictions.
The Reference Shelf
The U.S. eviction ban worked well before it expired,
ProPublica reported.
ProPublica reported.
Demand is rising for free legal assistance with housing issues,
according to the New York Times.
according to the New York Times.
More on the special Census Bureau survey project measuring
Covid-19 anxieties.
Covid-19 anxieties.
A San Francisco evictions moratorium survived a legal
challenge by landlords.
challenge by landlords.
Tuesday, August 25, 2020
relative vs. absolute risk reduction - plasma_FDA, Trump Officials Misrepresent Key Data on Covid Plasma Therapy - Bloomberg
FDA, Trump Officials Misrepresent Key Data on Covid Plasma Therapy - Bloomberg
... “What I should have said better is that the data show a relative risk reduction not an absolute risk reduction,” he said.
...Imagine a clinical trial to test an experimental drug, with 2,000 patients split into two groups. The first 1,000 patients don’t get the drug, and in that group 10 people die. The other group of 1,000 patients gets the drug, and five people in that group die.
... “What I should have said better is that the data show a relative risk reduction not an absolute risk reduction,” he said.
...Imagine a clinical trial to test an experimental drug, with 2,000 patients split into two groups. The first 1,000 patients don’t get the drug, and in that group 10 people die. The other group of 1,000 patients gets the drug, and five people in that group die.
Using relative risk, that’s a 50% improvement -- a tremendous number. But using absolute risk, the imaginary drug only decreases the likelihood of death by 0.5%. That means 5 more of those 1,000 people treated with the drug would live, not the 500 implied if you mistakenly use the 50% relative risk number.
The claim of a 35% mortality benefit made by Trump, Azar and Hahn uses the first measure -- relative risk.
Monday, August 24, 2020
Sunday, August 23, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Beveridge Curves - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Beveridge Curves - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
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Saturday, August 22, 2020
New Antibody Tests Offer Better Snapshot of Covid-19 Immunity - Bloomberg
New Antibody Tests Offer Better Snapshot of Covid-19 Immunity - Bloomberg
...Until now, antibody tests have been typically looked for evidence of a range of antibody types, including generally fast-appearing but short-lived ones and another kind that shows up later but provides longer protection.
...Until now, antibody tests have been typically looked for evidence of a range of antibody types, including generally fast-appearing but short-lived ones and another kind that shows up later but provides longer protection.
Healthineers’ new test zeroes in on the latter. Once an organization like the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine determines what level of these antibodies is needed to confer immunity, researchers will be able to see who needs a vaccine, a booster shot or nothing at all.
...T cells can kill virus-infected cells, while memory cells linger for years, ready to re-populate the body with both weapons if the virus returns.
..presence of antibodies targeting the nucleocapsid that surrounds the coronavirus’s nucleic acids.
However, research has shown that the most protective antibodies are those that target the spike protein that enables the virus to enter cells. Most vaccine developers are coming up with shots inducing the body to make spike protein-related antibodies,
...Roche’s quantitative test focuses on spike-protein antibodies. The company will then be able to use both of its antibody tests together, a potential benefit since a small percentage of people develop antibodies against either the spike or the nucleocapsid, not both.
Lambda School raises $74M for its virtual coding school where you pay tuition only after you get a job | TechCrunch
Lambda School raises $74M for its virtual coding school where you pay tuition only after you get a job | TechCrunch
...Lambda School, which runs virtual nine- and 18-month (part time) computer science courses for $30,000 — currently covering data science and full-stack web development — with payments for the course based on a sliding scale that only kicks in after you land a job that makes at least $50,000, has raised $74 million in equity in a Series C round.
...He also said that he hopes that this will be the last funding that Lambda raises, not because it’s planning an IPO but because it’s aiming to become profitable. Allred confirmed that is not the case yet.
...more demand than we can handle right now, even with the fundraise,” he said. “I don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing.”
...Lambda School, which runs virtual nine- and 18-month (part time) computer science courses for $30,000 — currently covering data science and full-stack web development — with payments for the course based on a sliding scale that only kicks in after you land a job that makes at least $50,000, has raised $74 million in equity in a Series C round.
...He also said that he hopes that this will be the last funding that Lambda raises, not because it’s planning an IPO but because it’s aiming to become profitable. Allred confirmed that is not the case yet.
...more demand than we can handle right now, even with the fundraise,” he said. “I don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing.”
Currently there are about 3,000 students enrolled, all taking live (not on-demand) classes according to timetables programmed for different timezones. All the classes are set up on a specific personalised basis, with labs to extend your learning and “live” projects to put you in the middle of the kind of work that you would be expected to do with the skills your’re picking up.
...“From a regulatory standpoint we could receive accreditation and grant degrees but [boards] require you to submit changes to curriculum a year in advance and our students can’t afford that. Things like that are a nonstarter until the accrediting bodies change their requirements,” he said, and added that schools that have accreditation are not always better than this.
“There are thousands of schools fully accredited that have a 20% graduation rate,” he said. “It doesn’t make you good. We have to prove our worth to students in other ways, usually through outcomes.”
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
What a 1982 Turmeric Forgery Says About India’s Courts - Bloomberg
What a 1982 Turmeric Forgery Says About India’s Courts - Bloomberg
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is eager to convince global
companies and investors that India is a business-friendly alternative to China.
A top court ruling this summer told another story, highlighting the infamous
judicial delays that threaten to stymie businesses and scuttled deals.
companies and investors that India is a business-friendly alternative to China.
A top court ruling this summer told another story, highlighting the infamous
judicial delays that threaten to stymie businesses and scuttled deals.
The Supreme Court ended the 38-year saga of an alleged
turmeric forger, who was arrested in 1982 and, eventually, sentenced to a month
in jail and a 500 rupee ($6.70) fine. After a decade, the top court reversed
his conviction; the two lower courts took around 14 years each to render
verdicts.
turmeric forger, who was arrested in 1982 and, eventually, sentenced to a month
in jail and a 500 rupee ($6.70) fine. After a decade, the top court reversed
his conviction; the two lower courts took around 14 years each to render
verdicts.
The lifespan of the turmeric case is extreme but not unique
among the nearly 40 million cases pending across the country’s three-tiered
judicial system. Among cases in 25 state high courts, roughly 173,000 have been
pending for more than 20 years, and roughly half of those for more than 30,
government data showed.
among the nearly 40 million cases pending across the country’s three-tiered
judicial system. Among cases in 25 state high courts, roughly 173,000 have been
pending for more than 20 years, and roughly half of those for more than 30,
government data showed.
The World Bank ranks India in the top one-third of countries
for overall ease-of-doing-business, but when it comes to enforcing contracts --
a measure of legal efficiency -- the south Asian nation lands in the bottom
15%, worse than Pakistan, Syria and Senegal.
for overall ease-of-doing-business, but when it comes to enforcing contracts --
a measure of legal efficiency -- the south Asian nation lands in the bottom
15%, worse than Pakistan, Syria and Senegal.
“It’s pretty incredible,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of
economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore. “The complexity, the
unnecessary delays -- it shows how India lags countries like China in their
judicial system and just how much further they have to go.”
economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore. “The complexity, the
unnecessary delays -- it shows how India lags countries like China in their
judicial system and just how much further they have to go.”
Clogged Courts
Over 38 million cases pending in three tiers of Indian
judiciary
judiciary
National Judicial Data Grid
Legal and compliance expenses of companies listed in India
increased to just over $3 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2018, up 57%
in five years, according to national business daily Mint. Judicial delays have
also tied up some of the country’s biggest corporations and would-be massive
deals:
increased to just over $3 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2018, up 57%
in five years, according to national business daily Mint. Judicial delays have
also tied up some of the country’s biggest corporations and would-be massive
deals:
IHH Healthcare Bhd’s attempt to take over hospital chain
Fortis Healthcare Ltd was scuttled by Daiichi Sankyo Co.’s four-year fight to
enforce a $500 million arbitration agreement against Malvinder Singh and
Shivinder Singh.
Fortis Healthcare Ltd was scuttled by Daiichi Sankyo Co.’s four-year fight to
enforce a $500 million arbitration agreement against Malvinder Singh and
Shivinder Singh.
After 10 years, the Indian Supreme Court directed the
provincial government in West Bengal to return land leased to Tata Motors
Ltd.’s back to local farmers.
provincial government in West Bengal to return land leased to Tata Motors
Ltd.’s back to local farmers.
A twenty-year dispute ended with a $19 billion judgment
against all the country’s telecom companies, including those that have
shuttered since the case began.
against all the country’s telecom companies, including those that have
shuttered since the case began.
The long time to resolution creates a lot of uncertainty for
foreign companies otherwise interested in doing business in India, said Souvik
Ganguly, Managing Partner at Mumbai-based Acuity Law. “Uncertainly makes
investors nervous,” Ganguly said, adding that India is “competing against a
Singapore, Thailand and other countries which are much faster to resolve
disputes.”
foreign companies otherwise interested in doing business in India, said Souvik
Ganguly, Managing Partner at Mumbai-based Acuity Law. “Uncertainly makes
investors nervous,” Ganguly said, adding that India is “competing against a
Singapore, Thailand and other countries which are much faster to resolve
disputes.”
Part of the backlog is a result of judicial vacancies. In 25
high courts, which hear most of the commercial disputes, 37% of judgeships were
vacant as of August 1, according to government data. In the lower district
courts, the most recent data identified a vacancy rate around 23%.
high courts, which hear most of the commercial disputes, 37% of judgeships were
vacant as of August 1, according to government data. In the lower district
courts, the most recent data identified a vacancy rate around 23%.
India’s law ministry told Parliament in 2019 that it is
coordinating with the judges of the Supreme Court and high court to fill up the
vacancies, and last week a panel of Supreme Court judges recommended 11 new
judges for appointments across three different high courts.
coordinating with the judges of the Supreme Court and high court to fill up the
vacancies, and last week a panel of Supreme Court judges recommended 11 new
judges for appointments across three different high courts.
Emails and phone messages seeking comment from the law
ministry remained unanswered.
ministry remained unanswered.
Monday, August 17, 2020
Why New Hotels Are Still Opening During the Pandemic - Bloomberg
Why New Hotels Are Still Opening During the Pandemic - Bloomberg
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Luxury Travel
Nearly 1,000 New Hotels Are Still Opening During the
Pandemic. Why?
Pandemic. Why?
The travel industry may be in survival mode, but some brave
brands are making the numbers work.
brands are making the numbers work.
By Sara Clemence
The new White Water hotel on California’s central coast has
a lot going for it: a location on a moonstone-studded beach, generously sized
rooms, and Scandinavian-inspired interiors by Los Angeles designer Nina
Freudenberger.
a lot going for it: a location on a moonstone-studded beach, generously sized
rooms, and Scandinavian-inspired interiors by Los Angeles designer Nina
Freudenberger.
Going against it? Oh, just the worldwide collapse of the
hospitality industry.
hospitality industry.
White Water is one of the thousands of hotels that have
either opened or will open in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to
hospitality data firm STR, occupancy rates dropped to below 30% across Europe
in March; numbers from M3, a firm that provides accounting services to hotels
across the U.S., show that domestic occupancy figures declined by half, even as
hotels slashed prices. It’s all part of a recession that the International
Monetary Fund in June predicted would hit $12.5 trillion in global
losses—almost 5% of the world’s gross domestic product.
either opened or will open in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to
hospitality data firm STR, occupancy rates dropped to below 30% across Europe
in March; numbers from M3, a firm that provides accounting services to hotels
across the U.S., show that domestic occupancy figures declined by half, even as
hotels slashed prices. It’s all part of a recession that the International
Monetary Fund in June predicted would hit $12.5 trillion in global
losses—almost 5% of the world’s gross domestic product.
That’s a grim picture for anyone starting a business of any
kind, much less one associated with high overheads and extreme sums of
underlying debt. Still Hilton opened 60
new hotels around the world in the second quarter of this year, while Marriott
has debuted 163 properties—including four Ritz-Carltons—since the start of
the year.
kind, much less one associated with high overheads and extreme sums of
underlying debt. Still Hilton opened 60
new hotels around the world in the second quarter of this year, while Marriott
has debuted 163 properties—including four Ritz-Carltons—since the start of
the year.
Even smaller, independent, and first-time hoteliers are
undeterred. The owners of beauty brand Fresh made their first foray into
hospitality this month with the opening of the 11-room Maker Hotel in New
York’s Hudson Valley; Nobu Hotels grew its portfolio by a third in recent
months with new properties in Chicago, London, and Warsaw; and PRG Hospitality
Group, which owns eight boutique hotels in California, including the White
Water, is about to cut the ribbon on its second summer debut. According to
industry site Tophotelnews, an additional 775
hotels are scheduled to open in the Americas alone by the end of 2020.
undeterred. The owners of beauty brand Fresh made their first foray into
hospitality this month with the opening of the 11-room Maker Hotel in New
York’s Hudson Valley; Nobu Hotels grew its portfolio by a third in recent
months with new properties in Chicago, London, and Warsaw; and PRG Hospitality
Group, which owns eight boutique hotels in California, including the White
Water, is about to cut the ribbon on its second summer debut. According to
industry site Tophotelnews, an additional 775
hotels are scheduled to open in the Americas alone by the end of 2020.
This might sound counterintuitive, with travel at a
near-standstill. But insiders say it makes sense.
near-standstill. But insiders say it makes sense.
For many new hotels, the decision to open is one that’s been
years—and millions of dollars—in the making. Deciding to cut the ribbon is like
the last leg of a too-expensive, too-long road trip: an inevitability, if you
want to get home.
years—and millions of dollars—in the making. Deciding to cut the ribbon is like
the last leg of a too-expensive, too-long road trip: an inevitability, if you
want to get home.
“A typical hotel project might take anywhere from two to five years to develop and open,”
says Sean Hennessey, a hotel consultant and professor at NYU’s Jonathan M.
Tisch Center of Hospitality. Including land, building costs can range from
several million dollars for a budget chain hotel to billions for a lavish
landmark. And maintaining a finished building comes with staffing costs that
might as well be allocated toward serving paying guests.
says Sean Hennessey, a hotel consultant and professor at NYU’s Jonathan M.
Tisch Center of Hospitality. Including land, building costs can range from
several million dollars for a budget chain hotel to billions for a lavish
landmark. And maintaining a finished building comes with staffing costs that
might as well be allocated toward serving paying guests.
Delaying operations is therefore, a costly proposition. “Even
if it’s unsuccessful at launch, a completed project is a heck of a lot more
valuable than an 80% completed one,” Hennessey adds. “You have to jump into
the fire and hope for the best.”
if it’s unsuccessful at launch, a completed project is a heck of a lot more
valuable than an 80% completed one,” Hennessey adds. “You have to jump into
the fire and hope for the best.”
For luxury hotels, breaking even means many things. At 50% occupancy, a property generally
has enough cash flow to make payroll, assuming rates remain stable, while 70% provides a healthy return on
investment. According to STR, the occupancy rate for U.S. hotels was under
43% in June.
has enough cash flow to make payroll, assuming rates remain stable, while 70% provides a healthy return on
investment. According to STR, the occupancy rate for U.S. hotels was under
43% in June.
In spite of that number, opening up gives hotels a fighting
shot to cover standing such expenses
as taxes, insurance, some management salaries, security, maintenance, and
basic energy costs—which all must be paid, whether a property is open or closed.
shot to cover standing such expenses
as taxes, insurance, some management salaries, security, maintenance, and
basic energy costs—which all must be paid, whether a property is open or closed.
It also gives them a chance to capture local business.
That’s the logic driving Rocco Forte Hotels, which by September will have reopened
its entire portfolio of 13 existing five-star properties around the world
while forging ahead on three additional forthcoming openings.
That’s the logic driving Rocco Forte Hotels, which by September will have reopened
its entire portfolio of 13 existing five-star properties around the world
while forging ahead on three additional forthcoming openings.
“My business will have an outflow of $55 million, whereas
normally I have an inflow of $35 million,” says Rocco Forte, the company’s
chairman. He adds that operating outdoor dining venues while the weather is
still nice—such as the garden restaurant at the Hotel de Russie in
Rome—compensates somewhat for poor overnight business, and can be done with
dramatically reduced staffing levels. “For a lot of people in the industry,
it's about survival,” he says.
normally I have an inflow of $35 million,” says Rocco Forte, the company’s
chairman. He adds that operating outdoor dining venues while the weather is
still nice—such as the garden restaurant at the Hotel de Russie in
Rome—compensates somewhat for poor overnight business, and can be done with
dramatically reduced staffing levels. “For a lot of people in the industry,
it's about survival,” he says.
Geography Matters
Location, supply and demand, debt load, morale, flexibility,
and a host of additional factors also come into play when deciding whether and
when to open.
and a host of additional factors also come into play when deciding whether and
when to open.
“It’s a tale of two areas—urban vs. non-urban,” says PRG co-founder Britten Shuford. His
company has seen occupancy rates hit highs of 80% at the surfer-friendly
Cambria Beach Lodge and lows of 20% throughout Los Angeles, where it
operates the still-closed Prospect hotel in Hollywood. Its design-forward Sands
Hotel & Spa in California’s Coachella Valley, meanwhile, has been up 50%
year-over-year since reopening in June. That picture gave Shuford faith that
White Water and the San Luis Creek Lodge, which opened in August in the Pacific
coast town of San Luis Obispo, would find their footing.
company has seen occupancy rates hit highs of 80% at the surfer-friendly
Cambria Beach Lodge and lows of 20% throughout Los Angeles, where it
operates the still-closed Prospect hotel in Hollywood. Its design-forward Sands
Hotel & Spa in California’s Coachella Valley, meanwhile, has been up 50%
year-over-year since reopening in June. That picture gave Shuford faith that
White Water and the San Luis Creek Lodge, which opened in August in the Pacific
coast town of San Luis Obispo, would find their footing.
Target audience also
makes a difference. Phil Cordell oversees Hilton’s Canopy brand of
friendly, stylish urban hotels. Nine Canopies have opened so far this
year—increasing the size of the portfolio by 75%—including locations in
Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. Even though they’re in cities, he thinks
Canopies can attract the kinds of travelers whose business has been a relative
bright spot this summer: road trippers, individual business travelers, and staycationers.
makes a difference. Phil Cordell oversees Hilton’s Canopy brand of
friendly, stylish urban hotels. Nine Canopies have opened so far this
year—increasing the size of the portfolio by 75%—including locations in
Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. Even though they’re in cities, he thinks
Canopies can attract the kinds of travelers whose business has been a relative
bright spot this summer: road trippers, individual business travelers, and staycationers.
“We’re going ahead with all the openings that were scheduled
this year,” Cordell says.
this year,” Cordell says.
Calculating Risk
Deciding to open a hotel doesn’t have to be an
all-or-nothing proposition. Take the Maker Hotel in the popular weekend town of
Hudson, N.Y., from Lev Glazman and Alina Roytberg, founders of the beauty brand
Fresh, and hospitality expert Damien Janowicz.
all-or-nothing proposition. Take the Maker Hotel in the popular weekend town of
Hudson, N.Y., from Lev Glazman and Alina Roytberg, founders of the beauty brand
Fresh, and hospitality expert Damien Janowicz.
It took the team 3 1/2 years to update, restore, and connect
three historic buildings into one. They opened
the property in stages—first a lounge, then a restaurant in a glass
conservatory, and finally a cafe with a European coffeehouse feel. The moody,
elegant hotel was scheduled to debut in April and instead launched in early
August, with reservations available only from Thursday to Monday, creating a
buffer for thorough cleanings
between guests. With a few weekends already sold out, Glazman says he’s
hoping to break even in just a few months.
three historic buildings into one. They opened
the property in stages—first a lounge, then a restaurant in a glass
conservatory, and finally a cafe with a European coffeehouse feel. The moody,
elegant hotel was scheduled to debut in April and instead launched in early
August, with reservations available only from Thursday to Monday, creating a
buffer for thorough cleanings
between guests. With a few weekends already sold out, Glazman says he’s
hoping to break even in just a few months.
For Rocco Forte, pursuing three new properties—two in Italy and one in Shanghai—means
maximizing economies of scale. “The future of my group is dependent to some
degree on being able to continue to grow,” Forte explains.
maximizing economies of scale. “The future of my group is dependent to some
degree on being able to continue to grow,” Forte explains.
Luckily for him and his counterparts, new hotels aren’t
expected to be profitable in their first year, anyway.
expected to be profitable in their first year, anyway.
“Unlike an office building, where tenants come on board when
you’re developing it, hotels are always built on spec—you don’t have any
installed customer base until you open the doors,” explains NYU’s Hennessey.
you’re developing it, hotels are always built on spec—you don’t have any
installed customer base until you open the doors,” explains NYU’s Hennessey.
Opening now allows operators to work out kinks and be
prepared for a recovery, he adds. But they can’t operate at a loss for too
long. “Many hotel companies have enough cash to pay overhead costs for 12 to 24
months,” he said. “Private owners likely have fewer resources to last that
long.”
prepared for a recovery, he adds. But they can’t operate at a loss for too
long. “Many hotel companies have enough cash to pay overhead costs for 12 to 24
months,” he said. “Private owners likely have fewer resources to last that
long.”
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