Monday, December 30, 2019

Post-Brexit NHS faces staffing timebomb warns think tank - Wales Online

Post-Brexit NHS faces staffing timebomb warns think tank - Wales Online



...Figures from the ONS show almost half of the increase in the health and social care workforce over the last decade has been from workers born outside the UK.



...."There are over 105,000 vacancies across the trust sector alone. Both in the NHS and the social care sector, any solution to reducing these vacancies will continue to rely on overseas recruitment.








Friday, December 27, 2019

Why drink is the secret to humanity’s success | Financial Times

Why drink is the secret to humanity’s success | Financial Times



Why drink is the secret to humanity’s success

Alcohol has been more valuable to our species’ survival than we might imagine


Why do humans drink? To the person waiting at the bar on a hot summer evening, the answer seems simple: drinking is a pleasure and a relief. To the public health official reading the latest reports of alcohol’s societal ruin, the answer might seem frustrating. Why would anyone drink, if it’s so bad for you? 

To me, and to my fellow evolutionary psychologists, the answer has emerged in a different and fascinating light, thanks to some intriguing new research. It is both simple and complex at the same time. Here’s why. 

Like all monkeys and apes, humans are intensely social. We have an urgent desire to schmooze and an awareness that alcohol helps our cause. Friendships protect us against outside threats and internal stresses, and this has been key to our evolutionary success. Primate social groups, unlike most other animals, rely on bondedness to maintain social coherence. And for humans, this is where a shared bottle of red wine plays a powerful role. 

It isn’t just because alcohol causes people to lose their social inhibitions and become over-friendly with our drinking chums. Rather, the alcohol itself triggers the brain mechanism that is intimately involved in building and maintaining friendships in monkeys, apes and humans. This mechanism is the endorphin system. Endorphins (the word is a contraction of “endogenous morphine”) are neurotransmitters that are intimately involved, through their opiate-like effects, in the management of pain. That opiate-like all’s-well-with-the-world effect seems to be crucial for establishing bonded relationships that allow individuals to trust each other. Drinking, seen in this light, is a profound activity. It enables humans to open up their deepest selves, giving another twist to the ancient saying “in vino veritas”.

Of the many social activities that trigger the endorphin system in humans (they range from laughter to singing and dancing), the consumption of alcohol seems to be one of the most effective. At detox clinics, one increasingly common form of treatment is to dose an addict with an endorphin blocker such as naltrexone that locks on to the brain’s endorphin receptors but is pharmacologically neutral, so you don’t get the hit when you drink. Instead, you get a mild form of cold turkey. 

Humans have a long association with alcohol that reaches back into the mists of prehistory. Archaeologists such as Patrick McGovern from the University of Pennsylvania Museum have found residues of fermentation in clay vessels in China dating back more than 8,000 years. There is an emerging view among some archaeologists that the reason humans started cultivating grains such as wheat and barley during the Neolithic was not to make bread (as everyone had previously assumed) but to make a gruel that could be fermented. One reason for this thinking is that primitive cereals such as einkorn, cultivated in the Middle East during the Neolithic, have a different gluten structure, making it more difficult to make good bread. They do, however, make a very good gruel that ferments rather well. If you had to choose between a grimly tasteless, rather soggy flatbread and a glass of beer, well it’s a no-brainer, isn’t it? 

While the really big innovation of the Neolithic may have been brewing rather than agriculture, the exploitation of naturally fermenting fruits may have a much longer history. Elephants in both southern Africa and India have a penchant for eating fermented fruits and can become quite woozy on it. Primatologist Kim Hockings of Exeter University has studied west African chimpanzees that habitually steal the palm wine left fermenting in trees by local farmers. And Robert Dudley from the University of California Berkeley claims in his “drunken monkey” hypothesis that we share with the apes a unique genetic mutation dating back some 12m years that allows us to break down the alcohols in over-ripe fruits.

One survey of pub-going showed that people with a regular ‘local' had more friends, alongside feeling more satisfied with their lives and more embedded in local communities
E1A9DH Inside and outside view of customers drinking and socialising at the Newman Arms pub in Fitzrovia, London, UK.

For humans, if not for elephants, fermented drinks play a central role in feasts the world over — and feasts are all about friendships. And it is probably in this respect that alcohol plays a seminal role. We need friends because they provide help when we need an extra hand, or someone to listen with a modicum of empathy to a tale of woe. But friendship, it turns out, has other hidden benefits. 

One of the biggest surprises of the last decade or so has been the torrent of publications showing that our happiness, health and susceptibility to disease — even our speed of recovery from surgery and how long we live — are all influenced by the number of friends we have. 

If you want an especially convincing example, one study by Julianne Holt-Lunstad collated the results of 148 studies of heart-attack patients. The aim was to determine what it was that best predicted the probability of surviving for 12 months after your first heart attack. Aside from sampling a very large number of people, it was based on a hard-nosed outcome: survival or death. And the best predictor? The number and quality of friendships you had. A short way behind that was giving up smoking (no surprises there). Then, way further down in terms of impact came exercise, obesity, alcohol consumption, quality of diet and even air quality. It seems you can eat, drink and slob about as much as you want and it won’t affect your chances anything like as much as having a few good friends to go out with.  

A graphic with no description


Loneliness is a health threat in the western world, and the UK even has a dedicated minister to address the problem. How to solve it, of course, is a huge challenge, but encouraging people to get out and socialise over a few beers or a bottle of wine at the village pub may be a good place to start.

While the role of alcohol in sustaining the friendship networks that provide us with psychological and emotional support is clearly crucial, the endorphins triggered by what we do with our friends may have their own hidden benefits: they appear to tune the immune system by activating the body’s T-cells, part of the defence mechanism that gives us resistance to many common ailments.

I’ve lost track of how many times I have been told by ex-military folk here and in the US that they were never so ill as when they returned to civvy street. It wasn’t that they weren’t as fit as they had been in the forces — it was just that they seemed to keep falling ill all the time with coughs and colds and the detritus of everyday life. When I mentioned the camaraderie of army life, the odd pint and all that exercise on the drill square, they immediately got the point. Exercise, alcohol and friends — three great ways to trigger endorphins.

P1K5HJ THE CZECHOSLOVAK SOCIALIST REPUBLIC - CIRCA 1970s: Vintage photo shows soldiers pose with beer bottles outddors. Black & white antique photo.

Of course, like anything biological, overdo the alcohol and you’re on the downward curve before you know it. But then that’s true of everything we eat. Salt, proteins, fats and sugars are all good for you, but have too much and you’ll be pitched unceremoniously into the diseases of civilisation — diabetes, obesity, cancers, hypertension, you name it. The same is true of alcohol: a few drinks will relax you and make you more sociable; they even seem to do you some good. But have the proverbial one too many, and you end up paying a price.

This was borne out rather nicely last week by an article in the British Medical Journal reporting on a study of some 9,000 Whitehall civil servants whose drinking habits and health had been studied over several decades into their retirement. Those who had consumed no alcohol in their forties and fifties, along with those who had typically consumed more than the official government guideline of 14 units a week, had a significantly increased risk of dementia later in life. Those who did not drink at all had a 50 per cent greater risk of developing dementia than those who drank moderately, and the same risk applied to those who drank heavily (more than about 40 units a week). Drinking more than 60 units a week (roughly equivalent to a bottle of wine a day) doubled their risk. Nice and steady does it is the mantra, as with all things biological. 

These Whitehall results may be even more interesting than at first seems to be the case. The study didn’t look at friendship as a factor, but I am struck by the pattern. People who drink moderately tend to be social drinkers, whereas heavy drinkers ramp up their consumption because they often drink alone at home — or drink past the point of being able to engage in the kinds of conversations on which friendships are built. It may be that these results actually reflect the fact that social drinking creates networks of friendships, and it is being embedded in a socially supportive network that protects against dementia as much as anything else. Friends engage us in conversation in ways that keep the brain ticking over, as well as providing us with endorphin-related health benefits. When we meet over a beer, we talk, laugh, tell stories, occasionally even sing and dance. All of these have been shown to trigger the endorphin system, and so help the process of social bonding as well as the processes of healing.

__________________

At the University of Oxford, we recently undertook a set of studies in collaboration with Camra (the Campaign for Real Ale) to look at the benefits of old- style community pubs relative to the high street bars that have come to dominate our social horizons in recent years. One component of this was a national survey of pub use. Rather strikingly, this showed that people who had a “local” that they patronised regularly had more close friends, felt happier, were more satisfied with their lives, more embedded into their local communities, and more trusting of those around them.

Those who never drank did consistently worse on all these criteria, while those who frequented a local did better than regular drinkers who had no local that they visited regularly. A more detailed analysis suggested that it was the frequency of pub visits that lay at the heart of this: it seemed that those who visited the same pub more often were more engaged with, and trusting of, their local community, and as a result they had more friends.

A graphic with no description


In a separate study of social eating, carried out in conjunction with The Big Lunch organisation, we found that eating with others also positively affected these same outcomes, especially if this was done in the evening. When we asked what other things happened during the meal that might have produced these effects, the three things that were most frequently listed were laughter, reminiscences and — yes, you’ve guessed it — the consumption of alcohol, all three of which are good at triggering the endorphin system. 

The fact that evening meals, in this study, seemed to be more important than lunchtime meals is itself interesting, because there seems to be something especially magical about doing social things in the evening that enhances all these effects. Just think of the very different buzz you get from going to an evening performance at the theatre compared to the matinee. This may well be a hangover that dates back some 400,000 years to the time when we first mastered the use of fire. Doing so allowed our early ancestors to shift all their social bonding activities to the evening, so freeing off a lot of extra time during daylight for foraging and other economically essential activities. Add a few fermenting fruits to the mix and . . . 

In the flickering light of the campfire, you can’t do much that requires keen eyesight like sewing or making tools, but you can chat away across the flickering flames. This is nicely illustrated by what South African San Bushmen talk about around their campfires. When anthropologist Polly Wiesner listened in on their conversations, she found that daytime conversations typically consisted of boring factual topics and discussions of trading agreements with neighbours, but evening conversations were invariably about social topics or involved storytelling and jokes. 

CP0063 Drinkers at The Palm Tree Pub, Mile End, London, England, UK


Friendships work because they provide us with “a shoulder to cry on” on that handful of occasions when our world falls apart. The problem is that if those friendships don’t already exist, no one else is ever quite as willing to substitute. Try asking the first stranger you meet in the street if they’d mind giving you a hug. The most likely response these days would be a phone call to the police. Friendships have to be set up ahead of need if they are to work for us, and that means investing a lot of time in them. 

Our studies suggest that we devote about 40 per cent of our available social time (and the same proportion of our emotional capital) to an inner core of about five shoulders-to-cry-on. And we devote another 20 per cent to the next 10 people who are socially most important to us. In other words, about two-thirds of our total social effort is devoted to just 15 people. That is a very substantial commitment, and amounts to an average of about two hours a day. It makes it all the more necessary that what we do with them is fun, otherwise they won’t keep coming back for more. 

So, if you want to know the secret of a long and happy life, money is not the right answer. Get rid of the takeaway in front of the telly, and bin the hasty sandwich at your desk — the important thing is to take time out with people you know and talk to them over a beer or two, even that bottle of Prosecco if you really must. There’s nothing quite like a convivial evening wrapped around a pint to give you health, happiness and a sense of wellbeing.  

Illustration by Bill Butcher

Robin Dunbar is Professor of Evolutionary Psychology at the University of Oxford and a Fellow of the British Academy






Tuesday, December 17, 2019

interesting - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

interesting - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail





Bruce Birkett

11:02 PM (0 minutes ago)
to Anne
You are just like the kids who kill the golden goose. You want it now and see nothing of the big global picture.

I laugh at the stupidity but try and not say too much. Sure, everyone would like to have 10 doctors and nurses, free food, etc. but then the question is who is working and who is receiving benefits. The people in the US live a very rich life. They just want more.

As for healthcare, I think the US is plagued with medical professionals and a bad environment and there are too many vested interests. And, if you don't eat well and don't live a healthy life, you don't care because you are taught it isn't your responsibility! The same is true with most everything else. You should do lots of things but the easy road out is preferred and no one is responsible for themselves because they want either: to have someone else take care of them; or to think they know better and care for others.

How many people have a clue how an economy and investment work and how many have any idea that there are much poorer countries out there willing to do work for less money! 

And the old folks might be the worst. They think they paid in enough for social security and their pensions. Anyone with their eyes open knew it was a lie but heck, ostrich behavior is so much easier.

I'm not saying how things should be, I'm just acknowledging how the reality works. And yes, I agree, cutting taxes reduced income by maybe 200 billion a year but we are spending one trillion. So, cutting taxes isn't the cure; and, raising taxes is again the goose with the golden eggs.

The news today is that US Steel suddenly realizes it has no choice but to invest in new technology. They are 20 years behind. Do the union workers give a shit? No, they wanted what the union promised in wages and pensions. They were stupid lemmings led by lemmings.

The reality is the US is spending too much on entitlements and no one wants to believe it or state the facts. Meanwhile all jobs are being replaced with technology. Either you invest and make use of the tech or you are ending up making the equivalent of buggy whips. Look at Germany, the home of the worker involved state and business community! Look it up. The picture isn't pretty.

When you want social benefits, it's easy to say that taxes on the productive should be raised and ignore the implications of jobs moving offshore, technology and production moving offshore and say, "Well, it is certainly not our high corporate taxes!". That is just total bullshit and anyone who says it is biased and blinded by such bias. 

The old saying is "liars use statistics and statistics lie". 

I admit I guess wrong that printing money would produce inflation. It hasn't. But, it has in healthcare and education. 

And, when you base your plans on false assumptions about how people react to incentives and disincentives and when  you ignore the rest of the world, you do so at your peril. That's all I'm saying. Things go along OK until they just don't. And, I agree, there is super amounts of bad shit going on out there and expecting a shrinking younger population to pay the costs of an expanding older population doesn't seem too intelligent.

Oh yes, to downplay the costs of government borrowing and paying for entitlements, we keep interest rates low and, surprise, pension plans are going bust! The world of unintended consequences.

Didn't a reason news article in the US say 86% of college educated Americans can't tell fake news? How sad is that?

I struggle to see through the wheat and chaff. And, that's both fun and keeps me busy.

Vanity Fair - Tax Cut View

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/12/gary-cohn-triesand-failsto-defend-the-trump-tax-cut?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=vf&utm_mailing=VF_Hive_121619&utm_medium=email&bxid=5be9c9ce2ddf9c72dc1731f9&cndid=48649301&hasha=a28e2a5db422a1da1f486a14c7e8ef9f&hashb=ce972dbb9829554942635064efb4bb3f1e5023d0&hashc=59743b8ce0f1d09cd5550c04ce54991ec35beae942bce691b6897a9a494c43c7&esrc=hivenlpg&utm_campaign=VF_Hive_121619&utm_term=VYF_Hive#



As a global person, I suggest that the logic is that taxes matter and if you are a business and have similar tech and expenses, if you get to keep less of your earnings, you'll have less to invest and competitors will eventually drive you from the market.


This article ignores basic logic because the bias is to have money for social goals. 

As you might know, if you have two companies in the same business and one gets to pay a higher dividend than the other, you'll invest in the company paying the higher dividend (i.e. low taxes equal more cash to distribute).

Any other tax related blah, blah has to focus on the anti-growth counter-factual of the tariff plans. So, tax cuts encourage investment and tariff policies discourage investment. Thus, econometrically, any article like the Vanity Fair one is evident of an economically bereft intellect.

Monday, December 16, 2019

Incentives Work. - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Two Cheers for a Stronger Yuan and a Decisive U.K. - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail



...

Incentives Work...

It is established investment lore that hubristic behavior by CEOs can tell you a lot. Avoid companies that have just spent a lot on flagship new headquarters. And steer clear of those where insiders are selling.

It is also established lore that incentives work. Give someone an incentive to do something, and they will do it.
 
Putting these beliefs together, new research suggests, might be a good way to spot some good stocks to own, and some to avoid.
Looked at more rigorously, fast asset growth in a company can often be a red flag, as it suggests empire-building may be taking priority over shareholder value. Meanwhile, buying back shares is a sign that managers believe they are undervalued.
How far can either signal be trusted? A lot, it turns out, provided we combine them with information on how exposed a company’s executives are to its share price. An ambitious study for Financial Analysts Journal by Shu Yan of the Spears School of Business at Oklahoma State University and a group of colleagues tried constructing a portfolio in the following way:
  • For companies with low managerial incentives (meaning top management didn’t gain much from incremental improvements in the share price), it sold short those with high asset growth, and bought those with low asset growth;
  • For companies with high managerial incentives, it shorted those that were issuing shares (showing management considered them overvalued), and bought those that were shrinking the float (showing that management thought the stock was cheap). 
To cut a lot of mathematics short, the strategy worked beautifully. It delivered returns comfortably above the market, even after taking into account transaction costs and established investment factors such as value and momentum. You can trust the market-timing decisions of heavily incentivized managers, and you can thoroughly distrust the empire-building of managers who aren’t incentivized. As of Monday, the paper should be available here

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

The Morning Download: Scientists Aim Synthetic DNA at Tsunami of Data - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

The Morning Download: Scientists Aim Synthetic DNA at Tsunami of Data - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail



The Morning Download: Scientists Aim Synthetic DNA at Tsunami of Data

By Tom Loftus

 
Good morning, CIOs. Scientists are looking towards code as computers reach their limit storing today's zettabytes of data. And not just any code but the code of life itself—DNA. 
Why DNA? "All the information to create a human being, for instance, can be coded in 3 billion base pairs of just four chemical nucleotides—adenine (A) paired with thymine (T), or guanine (G) paired with cytosine (C)—that fit neatly inside a single cell," The Wall Street Journal's Robert Lee Hotz reports. "Scientists can encode information using those four letters, much as digital data are currently translated into the binary language of ones and zeros."
Taking storage down to the molecular level. Last June, Boston-based DNA computing company Catalog stored all the text of Wikipedia in strands of synthetic DNA. And scientists Monday announced a method for mixing genetically encoded data into common manufacturing materials. More specifically, they sealed within a small plastic bunny DNA data containing 3-D printing instructions for replicating the bunny. One day the storage technique could be used to embed electronic health records into prescription drugs, the scientists said.

The island of immortals - BBC Reel

The island of immortals - BBC Reel

Monday, December 9, 2019

Anatomy of a Government Bankruptcy | The American Spectator

Anatomy of a Government Bankruptcy | The American Spectator



After bankruptcy, Moorlach was appointed treasurer, won another term, and then won terms as a county supervisor before heading to Sacramento. He remains one of the few lawmakers with actual math skills. His 2013 recollection sums up the problem aptly: “Our bankruptcy was a colossal accumulation of unnecessary errors and irresponsible actions done independently by a significant number of individuals from various financial and public sector disciplines, both inside and outside of county government, all of whom should have known better.”
Since then, Moorlach has been waving red flags about another approaching financial calamity. It involves California’s unfunded pension liabilities, brought on by politicians and pension funds more interested in boosting public-employee compensation than protecting the public’s assets. Officials should know better, but have been reacting to Moorlach’s warnings the same way they did in 1994. Some critics even have reprised the Chicken Little epithet.

...Transparent California to grasp the size of the compensation packages — check out the number of police sergeants receiving more than $350,000 a year — that led to the problem.

...A new CalPERS report shows average local government police and firefighter pension costs have reached 50 percent of pay — a level former CalPERS chief actuary Ron Seeling warned a decade ago would be in his view ‘unsustainable.’

... Some California cities, even in Orange County, are floating pension-obligation bonds, which allow them to take out new debt to pay their pension debt. Essentially, localities are betting that their investment returns will continually outpace the bonds’ interest rates. Let’s hope they’re better at this than Citron was.


Hedge funds key in exacerbating repo market turmoil, says BIS | Financial Times

Hedge funds key in exacerbating repo market turmoil, says BIS | Financial Times





Hedge funds key in exacerbating repo market turmoil, says BIS
Bank for International Settlements point to firms’ thirst for borrowed cash to fire up returns

Investors and policymakers were stunned when the cost of borrowing cash overnight in exchange for high-quality collateral shot higher in September



 Hedge funds exacerbated the recent turmoil in the repo market with their thirst for borrowing cash to juice up returns on their trades, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

Investors, bankers and policymakers were left stunned in September when the cost of borrowing cash overnight in exchange for high-quality collateral such as US government debt shot higher, eventually forcing action from the Federal Reserve to keep the market functioning smoothly.

In the aftermath, attention focused on the role played by banks, which had become reluctant to lend cash into the market despite the higher interest rates on offer.

While the BIS acknowledged in its quarterly assessment of the health of global markets, released on Sunday, that the pullback by banks was a significant factor in the shake-up, it also said that cash-hungry hedge funds had amplified the dislocation.

“High demand for secured (repo) funding from non-financial institutions, such as hedge funds heavily engaged in leveraging up relative value trades,” was a key factor behind the chaos, said Claudio Borio, head of the monetary and economic department at the BIS.

The findings from the BIS — often referred to as the central bank for central banks — highlight the growing clout of hedge funds in the repo market. Millennium Partners and Capula are among the large hedge funds active in the market, according to people familiar with the funds. Both declined to comment.

One increasingly popular hedge fund strategy involves buying US Treasuries while selling equivalent derivatives contracts, such as interest rate futures, and pocketing the difference in price between the two.

Recommended

Markets Insight
Repo ructions highlight failure of post-crisis policymaking
On its own this is not very profitable, given the close relationship in price between the two sides of the trade. But people active in the short-term borrowing markets say that to fire up returns, some hedge funds take the Treasury security they have just bought and use it to secure cash loans in the repo market. They then use this fresh cash to increase the size of the trade, repeating the process over and over and ratcheting up the potential returns.

The strategy was once popular among banks, but higher capital charges since the financial crisis have led to their displacement by hedge funds, which have more ability to take on risk.

As banks have pulled back from the market, hedge funds have also sought cash from new sources, such as non-bank dealers or through a platform run by the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation that gives them access to cash from money market funds and other lenders.

The growing significance of these new cash sources “can result in unfamiliar market dynamics”, said Mr Borio.

He added that September’s dislocation suggests that repo markets “may again find themselves in the eye of the storm should financial stress arise at some point”.

Despite the Fed’s efforts to calm the repo market, the cost of borrowing cash overnight on the last day of the year surged last week, raising concern for fresh volatility ahead.

Sunday, December 8, 2019

Cookie-Cutter Suburbs Could Help Spread Sustainable Yards

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cookie-cutter-suburbs-could-help-spread-sustainable-yards/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily-digest&utm_content=link&utm_term=2019-12-03_featured-this-week&spMailingID=61701907&spUserID=Mzk5MzY5OTMwNjI2S0&spJobID=1780458084&spReportId=MTc4MDQ1ODA4NAS2

Cookie-Cutter Suburbs Could Help Spread Sustainable Yards

The housing governing groups can play a powerful role in encouraging environmentally friendly lawns
Succulents, bougainvillea and other arid perennial plants, along with gravel are an example of a sustainable yard practice called xeriscaping used in desert climates. Credit: Getty Images
Yards in Austin, Tex., look like most across the country: sprawling expanses of short, uniform grass. But when intense Texas droughts set in, dead brown patches deface the Kelly green monochrome. Instead of repeatedly replanting these patches with the typical sod, the homeowner association of one Austin neighborhood, Travis Country, offers another option: filling in the brown spots with less-thirsty native species. As Cynthia Wilcox, the association’s grounds committee chair, puts it: “When your grass gets big dead spots, stop fighting it.” About 750 homeowners—half of the subdivision—have taken this advice. Roughly 500 of those homes have gone even further, landscaping much of their property with drought-tolerant native species such as long-bladed buffalo grass, slender salvia stalks and mountain laurel trees, which drip with purple blossoms that some people think smell like grape soda.
With homeowner associations often focused on projecting a uniform, ideal suburban image, it is rare for one to suggest—let alone allow—such a landscape shift. But precisely because these groups (usually called HOAs) establish and enforce aesthetic rules for millions of American yards, they could be a way to spread sustainable practices promoted by conservationists—while also helping subdivisions tackle problems ranging from unsightly lawn splotches to polluting fertilizer runoff. Some conservation programs are testing ways to overcome sociological and economic hurdles to get HOAs to embrace such changes, or at least not oppose them.

Conservationists have argued that some of these problems could be avoided if people made more diverse landscaping choices that support native species. In arid parts of the West, for example, landscaping a yard with local, drought-tolerant species and opting for mulch over grass can cut household water use by 30 percent. Native turfgrasses (which can replace typical lawn grass species) sprout fewer weeds and grow more slowly, reducing the need for mowing and its associated carbon emissions. Susannah Lerman, an ecologist with the U.S. Forest Service, also found that lawns mowed less frequently supported more bees.
Travis Country, a neighborhood in Austin, Texas, has encouraged residents to plant drought-tolerant native species in their yards. Credit: Laura Hajar
These changes can be hard sells for some residents, though, sometimes because they belong to homeowner associations with strict rules on yard appearance. HOAs are usually run by a handful of elected residents of a subdivision or neighborhood, but long-standing rules—such as grass being kept below a certain height—can come to be at odds with residents’ changing desires. In new subdivisions HOA rules may actually be established by developers, not the residents who ultimately move in. And sometimes, residents within an HOA are surprised by how strict landscaping rules are, or may disagree on yard upkeep standards. HOAs can fine people found in violation of rules, and conflicts over lawn care sometimes escalate to lawsuits. About 80 percent of new U.S. subdivision residents belong to an HOA, according to a July 2019 study in the Journal of Urban Economics.
“It is a little alarming for those of us who work in landscapes and sustainability to know that HOAs have a lot of influence and power over how a lot of our urban areas look,” says Gail Hansen, a professor of environmental horticulture at the University of Florida. But she and others are trying to turn that dynamic of enforced uniformity into an advantage by prodding HOAs to broaden their definition of what an acceptable yard looks like, in order to boost native-friendly landscaping across a community rather than rely on piecemeal efforts by environmentally minded homeowners. Sometimes that includes creating government programs, enacting state or local laws—or simply speaking with HOAs and residents themselves.
For over 30 years, a state government program has encouraged Florida residents to switch to sustainable landscapes with plants that are pest-resistant, drought-tolerant and thrive in most conditions, Hansen says. In northern Florida that could include the silvery pineapple guava shrub, while in the south an evergreen called natal plum can be kept trimmed low serve as groundcover. State law dictates that HOAs cannot prevent residents from planting these “Florida-Friendly” options. However, HOAs can still push back if homeowners choose plants or designs that do not meet neighborhood aesthetic standards. Hansen speaks with residents about how the initiative can work within HOA rulesand she also sometimes persuades board members to rewrite their mandates to accommodate the program. There are about 500 yards certified with the program, with still more properties practicing at least some of the recommended conservation measures. Last year a majority of the more than 220,000 attendees of water conservation workshops taught by University of Florida extension faculty reported scaling back their lawn watering afterwards.
A nascent state government program in Minnesota—which will offer funds for residents who plant flowers and legume species that support native insects—hopes to find HOAs that could become demonstration neighborhoods, where multiple homes would replant to boost overall interest in the project. In Texas, meanwhile, sustainable lawns have been a contentious topic. A few other subdivisions there have joined Travis Country in promoting them—but the state legislature had to pass a law prohibiting other HOAs from banning low-irrigation landscapes.
Scientists have worked to understand some of the strong social pressures that led HOAs and some of their residents to desire lawn uniformity in the first place, in order to harness those pressures in a more sustainable direction. Some of the reluctance Hansen runs into has to do with the notion that “sustainable” lawns look disorderly. In surveys of residents in Detroit and other U.S. cities, Joan Nassauer, a University of Michigan professor who investigates ecological design, found that 80 percent of respondents—no matter what yard style they preferred—said they wanted it to be neat. “When you introduce something new in a neighborhood that has ecological benefits, it can never look messy by neighborhood standards,” she says. To show that eco-friendly lawns can be tidy, Hansen punctuates her presentations with photos of well-maintained examples. Where changes like mowing a yard less often might make yards a little scruffier, printable yard signs provided by the U.S. Forest Service can help explain to neighbors that the lawn’s appearance has a larger purpose.
Nassauer’s research also shows that residents want their yards to fit in with those of their neighbors, so environmentally friendly aesthetics might be easier to pull off if the entire neighborhood adopts the practices instead of a few individual homes. When residents and their HOAS are both reluctant to push boundaries, Hansen also shows ways to make sustainable landscaping blend in—such as keeping a strip of grass to give the illusion of a yard.
Then there is the ultimate concern of any homeowner: property value. HOAs and homeowners see traditional lawns as a safe bet that sells, Hansen notes. New approaches are more likely to appeal to residents if the changes explicitly help property values, says Matthew Freedman, an economist at the University of California, Irvine, who has studied how HOAs impact housing prices and neighborhood conformity. “We don’t see a lot of HOAs encouraging activities that will have benefits that extend beyond their community,” he says. “But they do encourage plants that limit runoff, and that directly affects the immediate neighborhood.” In Florida, for example, Hansen found residents will remove their grass when fertilizer runoff exacerbates unsightly algae blooms in backyard retention ponds.
Future suburbs might be easier to persuade to adopt these strategies, Nassauer thinks, as people are more willing to embrace a sustainable aesthetic if it is already built for them. Hansen has noticed some developers implementing sustainable landscaping from the start. But the examples in Florida and Texas show progress can be made in converting existing lawns too. “It is possible to have a yard where we already have lots of yards,” Nassauer says, “and just have a better one.”

10 things to know about George Nakashima | Christie's

10 things to know about George Nakashima | Christie's



...Nakashima embraced the unique qualities of wood — cracks, holes and the like. For him, they revealed the ‘soul of the tree’. He believed that the individuality of the wood should be celebrated, and it was the role of the craftsman to bring it out.

‘Each flitch, each board, each plank can have only one ideal use,’ he opined. ‘The woodworker, applying a thousands skills, must find that ideal use and then shape the wood to realise its true potential.’
...

Redesign U — The California Sunday Magazine

Redesign U — The California Sunday Magazine



Tackling immense social and political systems does pose challenges for a design approach. Several years ago, Reich began to talk with Stein Greenberg and Kelley about applying design thinking to improve democratic institutions, discussions that resulted in a course called Design for Bipartisanship. 

The Fastest Growing Energy Sectors Of 2019 | OilPrice.com

The Fastest Growing Energy Sectors Of 2019 | OilPrice.com



...9.8 billion by 2050. Coupled with rapid urbanization, this will continue to drive energy demand. 

Global electricity demand has been growing about twice as fast as overall energy use and could climb by more than 50 percent by 2040, with energy demand growing by 25 percent over the timespan. 
Meanwhile, the challenge of meeting growing energy demand while reducing harmful emissions and greenhouse gases continues to be a very significant one. Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide rose 1.4 percent in 2017, the biggest annual rise on record.
..Here in the U.S., clean energy employs 777,000 people, roughly the same as the telecom industry. Wind and solar energy employ more people than coal energy in 30 states.

Saturday, December 7, 2019

Porch Pirates: Amazon and FedEx Can Do More to Stop Them - Bloomberg

Porch Pirates: Amazon and FedEx Can Do More to Stop Them - Bloomberg



The Wrong Way to Fight Porch Pirates

New laws against theft won’t be of much help, but retailers and package-delivery companies can be.
Keep them all safe.
Keep them all safe. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
One consequence of America’s Cyber Monday shopping binge is the imminent arrival of $9.4 billion worth of merchandise on the nation’s doorsteps. And that will cue the annual cries of frustration about porch pirates — along with a raft of local news stories on how to evade them, and a few viral tales of consumers attempting to spook them with booby-trapped packages or glitter bombs.

Unburied Treasures

The seasonal spike in Google searches for "porch pirates" suggests that this form of theft is on people's minds as they shop online for the holidays
Source: Google Trends
The fixation on thwarting porch pirates is understandable. (I, for one, will confess to being irrationally angry recently when a $27 baby onesie was swiped from my front stoop.) But it is also a flawed way of thinking about a legitimate and persistent problem with e-commerce.
The problem is not just theft. It is that shipping giants such as United Parcel Service Inc. and FedEx Corp., as well as big retailers, are not moving fast enough to make delivery of online orders more flexible and to turn over more control to shoppers.
Consumers and neighborhood associations should spend less time trying to answer the question, “How can we create a world where expensive goods can sit on my doorstep for hours and not get stolen?” Instead, they should be asking, “How can we make it so that expensive goods are not left on my doorstep in the first place?”
UPS and FedEx, to be fair, have made strides toward giving customers more options. Each has a network of thousands of access points where shoppers can pick up packages, including at ubiquitous stores such as Dollar General or CVS Pharmacy. Both shippers have apps that allow residents to provide delivery instructions for a driver.
Retailers, too, are getting more creative. Amazon.com Inc. now offers the option of choosing a single day each week for all of your recent orders to arrive, making it easier to ensure you’ll be home when your haul is delivered. And both Amazon and Walmart Inc. are piloting services that rely on smart-home technology that allows a driver one-time, secure access to your home.
Surely such a service, or some variation of it, will become commonplace within a decade. (After all, there was once a time when it was creepy to get in a stranger’s car, but thanks to Uber and Lyft that’s now ordinary.) For now, though, the choices for consumers are underwhelming or confusing — or, in some cases, both.
For example, UPS and FedEx both trumpet the convenience of letting you reroute an in-progress shipment to an access point. But online shoppers aren’t able to fully take advantage because retailers can put restrictions on packages preventing the recipient from redirecting them. This is likely a well-intentioned anti-fraud tactic, but it means access points aren’t the reliable solution they’re cracked up to be.
And retailers aren’t always great at steering customers toward desirable secure options. Amazon, for example, routinely tries to nudge me at checkout to try a pickup point that is a 30-minute drive from my home, even though there is a Whole Foods Market with Amazon lockers in walking distance.
But there are bigger ideas that could do even more to ensure package security. What if UPS or FedEx were to more routinely provide narrower time windows for drop-offs, or to allocate more workers for nighttime deliveries when nine-to-fivers are likely to be at home? What if retailers allowed customers to choose their shipping provider at checkout, which might force shippers to compete for their loyalty?
Such changes would further complicate the “last-mile” delivery challenges the industry has been addressing for decades, and would likely add costs. But these are the same logistics experts and retailers that were able to make speedy two-day delivery standard.  It’s not unreasonable to expect them to innovate their way to giving shoppers more choice.

The Two-Day Standard

When asked "When you opt for fast shipping, how long are you willing to wait to receive your product?" the largest share of consumers says two days
Source: Deloitte
Even if it’s difficult, improved delivery flexibility is a far better remedy for porch piracy than other headline-grabbing approaches. Police departments have experimented with planting bait packages on doorsteps that are outfitted with GPS trackers, potentially allowing them to catch individual thieves. Texas has a new law on the books that makes package theft punishable by up to 10 years in prison.
Never mind that there are already laws against theft. These kinds of punitive measures are not useless, but they are likely to be helpful only in a limited area for a limited period of time.
The more productive approach is to focus on reducing the unsecured supply of porch treasures. And no one is better equipped to attack that problem than the retailers and shippers. So shoppers should raise their expectations of these companies and demand that they do more.
    This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
    To contact the author of this story:
    Sarah Halzack at shalzack@bloomberg.net
    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    Michael Newman at mnewman43@bloomberg.net