Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Imagining the U.K. and the EU Three Years After Brexit - Bloomberg View

Imagining the U.K. and the EU Three Years After Brexit - Bloomberg View



...

We are still living in messy 2016, however, and this scenario for 2019 is but one of the two major possibilities for the global economy as it gets nearer to the consequential T junction in the world economy's path that I detailed in "The Only Game in Town." The other outcome, which is equally probable, would be even worse political dysfunction, resulting in a global recession, intense financial instability, greater isolationist policies and worsening inequality of income, wealth and opportunity....

Monday, June 27, 2016

How Seesaw accidentally became a teacher’s pet at 1/4 of US schools | TechCrunch

How Seesaw accidentally became a teacher’s pet at 1/4 of US schools | TechCrunch



Seesaw sounds simple but solves some major problems. It lets teachers easily collect assignments and track a student’s progress over time. When parents want to know what their kid did at school, rather than asking and getting the same moody “nothing!”, they can just look in Seesaw. Students learn 21st century technology skills while getting faster feedback on work and an audience that encourages them to try harder.
Instead of banning personal technology in the classroom, Seesaw lets teachers embrace it.

Sunday, June 26, 2016

Japan Debt Forecast (June 2016) Thoughts from the Frontline - Thinking the Unthinkable - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Thoughts from the Frontline - Thinking the Unthinkable - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail



Weak link number three is Japan. I have been talking about Japan for years. The line I coined six years ago is one that everybody tosses around now: “Japan is a bug in search of a windshield.” Japan is doing exactly what I said it would do in my book End Game five years ago and in Code Red over two years ago. It will get honorable mention in the next book.
Japan is monetizing its debt and putting it into the central bank. They are going to continue doing this at an astounding rate. I shorted the yen when it was at 100. I should have shorted it when it was at 90, because I was already writing about it then, but at the time I didn’t have the money or the testosterone. I was a lot happier when it was at 125 than now when it is back down to 102. One of the things I try to avoid when I place money with money managers is a “true believer.” A true believer’s certainties can take you over the cliff. But I must confess to being a true believer about the ultimate weakness of the yen. I still think 200 is a real possibility. For what it’s worth, I still have my money exactly where my mouth is. Only now, the cash value is back to where I started almost 2½ years ago. Oh well… We true believers are a hardy bunch. By the way, have I introduced you to some of my gold bug friends? And then there’s the survivalists. Just saying…
The Japanese have placed 30% of their total government debt on the balance sheet of their central bank. It is going to 70–80% – count on it, says the true believer. That is a lot of yen to put into the system, and that is what I think drives the ultimate valuation of the yen.

...

We may just declare some kind of debt jubilee, which I said above was crazy and unthinkable. But then again, when our backs are to the wall and we are offered a last cigarette and a blindfold, we may start thinking about alternatives.
Could we, the major developed countries of the world, all monetize our debts together – not separately, together – and recognize that we all allowed debt to go too far? We have to rationalize the whole system. We need to do it in a coordinated fashion so that no one major country gets an advantage in terms of currency valuation. It’s a controlled currency war. The smaller, emerging markets will be on their own. Sadly, that is my attempt at an optimistic approach to thinking the unthinkable.

Brexit Leaders Back Away From Migration Promises After Victory - Bloomberg

Brexit Leaders Back Away From Migration Promises After Victory - Bloomberg



Johnson’s discomfort with the campaign tactics that delivered him victory reflect a deep division within the backers of Brexit. Many at the top want a liberal, free market, low-regulation country modeled on London, the city Johnson led for eight years. Johnson proposed an amnesty for illegal immigrants, and said anyone with a job should be able to come to the country. But the people whose votes they relied on want dramatically reduced immigration and more regulation, even if it means being poorer.

‘Crucial Split’

“It’s a crucial split within the Leave group,” said Gerry Stoker, professor of political science at Southampton University. “It was absolutely clear that a lot of their supporters weren’t just voting for ending new immigration, but for sending back existing immigrants.”

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Number26 raises another $40 million for its vision for the future of banking | TechCrunch

Number26 raises another $40 million for its vision for the future of banking | TechCrunch



At heart, Number26 provides a free current account with a MasterCard...you can pay or withdraw money everywhere around the world — Number26 won’t charge you with foreign transaction fees or crappy exchange rates. Number26 uses the MasterCard exchange rate and doesn’t add any fee on top of it...



...Over time, the company has added new features. In Germany, you can withdraw cash at retail shops, set up overdraft and more. The company has expanded to six other European countries (France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Slovakia and Spain) and partnered with TransferWise for international transfers in foreign currencies. And this partnership is key to the company’s future.

With All Else Failing, Try Rate Hikes to Rescue the Economy - Bloomberg View

With All Else Failing, Try Rate Hikes to Rescue the Economy - Bloomberg View



...One big problem with artificially engineering low borrowing costs is that capital can end up trapped in so-called zombie companies. What the economist Joseph Schumpeter called "creative destruction" is less likely when money is free. That prevents economic Darwinism from weeding out the weak....



...If central banks (and indeed financial markets) are telling the world that money will be free for the foreseeable future, what incentive do consumers or companies have to borrow today to consume or invest, ...

Obamacare Premiums Are Going Up. Again. Now What? - Bloomberg View

Obamacare Premiums Are Going Up. Again. Now What? - Bloomberg View



...A few months back I was on a panel with a very smart health-care reporter who said, basically, “Yes, there will be rate hikes, but there is some price at which insurance can be sold profitably, and eventually, insurers will figure out what that price is.” My response was that this isn’t necessarily true. Insurance markets have some interesting features, one of which is that it is quite possible for there to be no price at which insurance can be profitably sold.

In health insurance markets, this phenomenon is known as the adverse-selection death spiral. Basically, every time the price of insurance goes up, many of the people in the insurance pool who use the least health care decide that it makes more sense to go without the insurance and bear the risk themselves, and they drop their coverage. That means you’re left with the more expensive patients to cover, which means the average cost goes up, which means prices have to go up … and, well, you get the idea. The price the market eventually finds may be so high that very few people want to buy the insurance....
...The subsidies, on the other hand, are obviously affecting behavior, because most of the people buying exchange policies qualify for substantial subsidies. The good news is that this will blunt the desire for healthier people to drop their coverage as the price of policies rises, because those cost increases will be passed on to the government rather than the consumer....
...

Astronomers just discovered a huge planet orbiting two suns | TechCrunch

Astronomers just discovered a huge planet orbiting two suns | TechCrunch



In the seven years since the Kepler space telescope was launched, astronomers have confirmed a couple thousand exoplanets in a single batch of sky in the Milky Way Galaxy, including a few planets very similar to Earth and Venus. Just two months ago, NASAannounced the largest batch of new planets ever discovered with 1,284 confirmed exoplanets at once.
“Before the Kepler space telescope launched, we did not know whether exoplanets were rare or common in the galaxy.” Paul Hertz, Astrophysics Division director at NASA Headquarters.
Throughout modern history, scientists believed that there were other planets out there, but Kepler was the crucial tool required to prove that hypothesis. Because of data from Kepler, scientists now know that planets could be even more frequent than stars in the universe.

Monday, June 20, 2016

Gravitational waves have been detected for the second time in history | TechCrunch

Gravitational waves have been detected for the second time in history | TechCrunch



For the second time in history, scientists have directly detected gravitational waves. And just like that, a new era of astronomy is underway.
Like the first gravitational wave detected, scientists believe that the signal was created by the collision of two black holes, albeit a completely different binary black hole system than the first.

Sunday, June 19, 2016

Obama’s Bitter Afghan Legacy

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/afghan-war-obama-pakistan-by-brahma-chellaney-2016-06


If there were any doubts about Pakistan’s duplicity, they should have been eliminated in 2011, when Osama bin Laden was killed in a military garrison town near the country’s capital. Yet, five years later, Pakistan still has not revealed who helped bin Laden hide for all those years. Meanwhile, the Obama administration has continued to shower the country with billions of dollars in aid.

Watch These Synthetic Leaves Suck CO2 Out of the Sky - Bloomberg

Watch These Synthetic Leaves Suck CO2 Out of the Sky - Bloomberg

Startups and immigration: Myths, lies and half-truths | TechCrunch

Startups and immigration: Myths, lies and half-truths | TechCrunch



immigrants founded 51 percent (44 out of 87) of U.S. billion-dollar startups and are key members in more than 70 percent (62 out of 87) of these companies.

NASA’s new X-plane and the future of electric aircraft | TechCrunch

NASA’s new X-plane and the future of electric aircraft | TechCrunch




As the smartphone wars reheat, the threat of chilling innovation looms | TechCrunch

As the smartphone wars reheat, the threat of chilling innovation looms | TechCrunch



...A timely example of the court’s influence in the system is the high-profile Apple versus Samsung design patent case, which represents an opportunity for critical clarity. In April, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to review the case and a ruling that raises questions regarding how to protect investment in product development, as well as the appropriate remedies when infringement is found....


...The Electronic Frontier Foundation also submitted a brief about the ruling under review, which states that, “the patent system is supposed to offer fair reward for inventors, not excessive, unfair compensation that threatens our access to technology.”...


...At the center of the Apple versus Samsung case are design patents. Unlike utility patents, which cover “function,” design patents protect “ornamental appearance” (akin to a trade dress style of protection), a term not easily defined. And therein lies the problem. When design patent protections were first devised, more than 100 years ago, they were typically issued to protect entire objects or products from copying, wherein copyright law was not applicable, as utilitarian functionality is a premise for protection.


Thus, a “total profit” remedy seemed equitable and logical and provided patentees with a vehicle for the lost profit restitution if they fell victim to unlawful copying of their products, often with decorative characteristics that set them apart from the other carpet, teapot or saddle.
Today, design patents are typically applied for and issued covering singular features of a product’s design. In the Apple case, those designs are the rounded rectangle casing of the phone, a grid of icons on the screen and a bezel. Under a previous court ruling, Samsung was ordered to pay Apple the total profits it received from the smartphones that infringed these patents...
...Design patents offer a far more lucrative weapon for patent trolls,...patent trolls have cost U.S. startup entrepreneurs about $21.7 billion in venture capital funds in the five years preceding the report. 

Andy Rubin explains his $300M bet on the future of hardware | TechCrunch

Andy Rubin explains his $300M bet on the future of hardware | TechCrunch



At Playground, Rubin and his team — a bench of around 15 engineers that are experts in fields like computer science and mechanical engineering — are incubating around 15 companies, Rubin said. The way it works is that companies that are basically envisioning new ways of how computing can interact with the real world come up, they’re given the resources — and financing — figure it out and then head off into the real world...



... “One thing playground does well is we have the bench of engineers, a lot of capital to invest, we act as a traditional Venture Capital firm. We wait for people to come through the door, like the quantum computing company, and say yes we’ll invest in that. Every now and then we’ll do our pattern matching. We’ll notice that someone isn’t walking in the door. So we the notion of hatching companies out of Playground using the resources that are the bench of engineers, funding it and setting it free. I do have one actively being hatched in the mobile space.”

Sunday, June 12, 2016

Thoughts from the Frontline - Hot Summer Economic Weirdness - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Thoughts from the Frontline - Hot Summer Economic Weirdness - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail



If you are the board of a Eurozone company and your central bank offers you free or better-than-free cash, of course you take it. Japan already proved that this can work back in January, when it first bought corporate bonds at a below-zero interest rate. And this new tactic of the ECB is going to affect more than just corporate bonds in Europe. US multinationals with European subsidiaries (and most have them) are going to be lining up to take advantage of a central bank that will buy up to 70% of anything the corporations issue, at rates that can’t be matched in the US. At least for now. You think that’s not going to bring European-style central banking to the United States?
If you’re a corporation in Europe, the harder question is what to do with your free cash. The ECB wants you to buy stuff and drive up prices. That would leave you owning stuff, which isn’t rational if you think deflation will continue. So the ECB has a chicken-egg problem. They can’t have inflation unless businesses and individuals spend their cash, but everyone will hoard their cash until they’re convinced inflation is back.
Liquidity is another problem. Bloomberg calculates that the universe of corporate debt eligible for ECB purchase totals about 620 billion. To produce the desired effect, the ECB will have to own a significant chunk of that market. At some point it then stops being a “market” by any normal definition.
Japan is already dealing with that problem and worse, since it buys equity ETFs as well as bonds. The Japanese government bond (JGB) market is becoming a monopsony – the opposite of a monopoly. Instead of one seller, JGBs have only one buyer. It is very possible that other markets will soon operate similarly. How can the center hold in such an economy?...
Regardless, Draghi will keep buying assets. He could buy most of the Eurozone and still not have any inflation.
German Banks Hoarding Cash
Speaking of cash-hoarding behavior – which is one side effect of negative rates – one of Germany’s largest banks is seriously considering it. Sources within Commerzbank havetold Reuters they are “examining the possibility” of hoarding physical euros by the billions in secure vaults. This would let them avoid the -0.4% NIRP penalty for parking cash with the ECB....
The only way that tactic makes sense is if the bank can’t profitably lend the cash to its customers, which, given the rules for lending in Europe, actually happens to be the case.
Nonbank financial institutions are also storing cash. Munich Re said back in March it would store both physical cash and gold to avoid paying negative interest rates...
...cease issuing 500-euro notes after 2018...
...How in the Wide Wide World of Sports does anybody think that pensions and insurance companies can survive in such a market? Remember, they are required to hold a certain amount of government bonds, and their investment return targets are north of 5%. I could do a whole letter on the coming debacle in European insurance companies. ...




Saturday, June 11, 2016

A startup that pays cash to buy homes now offers money-back guarantee | TechCrunch

A startup that pays cash to buy homes now offers money-back guarantee | TechCrunch

U.S. Taxpayers Are Funding Iran's Military Expansion - Bloomberg View

U.S. Taxpayers Are Funding Iran's Military Expansion - Bloomberg View



"Article 22 of the budget for 2017 says the Central Bank is required to give the money from the legal settlement of Iran's pre- and post-revolutionary arms sales of up to $1.7 billion to the defense budget," he said. 
Republicans and some Democrats who opposed Obama's nuclear deal have argued that the end of some sanctions would help to fund Iran's military. But at least that was Iran's money already (albeit frozen in overseas bank accounts). The $1.7 billion that Treasury transferred to Iran in January is different.
A portion of it, $400 million, came from a trust fund comprising money paid by the government of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a U.S. ally, for arms sold to Iran before the 1979 revolution. Those sales were cut off in 1979 after revolutionaries took over the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held the American staff hostage for 444 days. The remaining $1.3 billion represents interest on the $400 million principle over more than 36 years.

Sotheby’s Is Paying Buyers to Bid on Its Artwork - Bloomberg

Sotheby’s Is Paying Buyers to Bid on Its Artwork - Bloomberg



Sotheby’s was in a bind. The auction house had won several top consignments for its bellwether spring auction, including a Jean-Michel Basquiat that sold for $7.4 million four years ago, by guaranteeing the sellers minimum prices.
But as volatile financial markets sent jitters through the art world, Sotheby’s faced the prospect of owning the work if it failed to sell. In the weeks leading up to its May 11 auction, the company began pitching a new perk to potential buyers: a fixed fee to those who agree, before the auction even starts, to make at least a minimum bid. The new incentive helped Sotheby’s find buyers for guaranteed pieces.

Friday, June 10, 2016

Musk’s SpaceX, Once Pooh-Poohed, Is Wake-Up Call for Europeans - Bloomberg

Musk’s SpaceX, Once Pooh-Poohed, Is Wake-Up Call for Europeans - Bloomberg



“SpaceX is like a giant wake up call,” Jean-Yves Le Gall, head of CNES, the French space agency, said in an interview. “Six to nine months ago many in Europe thought Elon Musk was just hot air, even among the big shots in the space industry. But he showed he was able to do it, to potentially reuse rockets one day. He’s clearly shaking things up.”
More than just European pride is at stake. The space industry represents 38,000 jobs in Europe, most of them in France, according to Aerospace Defense Industries, an industry group. 

Thursday, June 9, 2016

Gross Says Negative Rates Are Like ‘Supernova’ That Will Explode - Bloomberg

Gross Says Negative Rates Are Like ‘Supernova’ That Will Explode - Bloomberg



Gross has argued for some time that the economy is at the end of a decades-long cycle of expanding credit that has culminated in negative interest rates, a situation he said is unsustainable. Rather than spurring economic growth, low rates are promoting asset bubbles as investors reach for higher yields while punishing individual savers and industries that rely on interest rates, such as bank and insurance companies, according to Gross.
He said in a June 2 note that the era of 7.5 percent annualized investment gains is history and that investors should eventually take positions to protect principal or profit from market declines.

Once Taboo, Spain’s Nudes Go on Display at the Clark - WSJ

Once Taboo, Spain’s Nudes Go on Display at the Clark - WSJ



As religious tensions rose across Europe, the Catholic Church declared the painting of nudes a “mortal sin.” At the same time, artists increasingly considered the nude as a place to showcase their talent.
The debate was especially intense in Spain, in part because its kings had developed a taste for the genre. Records show Philip IV, an avid art collector whose rule began in 1621, often visited a private space—referred to at the time as the room “where His majesty retires after lunch”—filled with nudes by Titian. Visiting officials would gift him nude paintings in an attempt to win favor. (Furini’s “Lot and His Daughters” was a brown-nosing wedding present from the Grand Duke of Tuscany.)

Welcome to Larry Page’s Secret Flying Car Factories - Bloomberg

Welcome to Larry Page’s Secret Flying Car Factories - Bloomberg

Monday, June 6, 2016

California Makes America's Economy Great - Bloomberg View

California Makes America's Economy Great - Bloomberg View



...

 California had a 3.29 percent growth rate last year, more than five times that of No. 3 Japan, almost twice No. 4 Germany, about half again as much as No. 5 U.K., almost three times No. 6 France and a third more than No. 1 U.S.



California last year created the most jobs of any state, 483,000, more than the second- and third-most-populous states Florida and Texas combined (they added 257,900 and 175,700) and at a faster rate than any of the world's developed economies. 

Facebook Co-Founder Saverin Takes a Shine to Singapore Underdog - Bloomberg

Facebook Co-Founder Saverin Takes a Shine to Singapore Underdog - Bloomberg

Sunday, June 5, 2016

Overdosing on Heterodoxy Can Kill You by Ricardo Hausmann - Project Syndicate

Overdosing on Heterodoxy Can Kill You by Ricardo Hausmann - Project Syndicate



So what should the world learn from the country’s descent into misery? In short, Venezuela is the poster child of the perils of rejecting economic fundamentals.

Nouriel Roubini warns that advanced economies can either boost potential growth or face harsh consequences.

Since the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, productivity growth in the advanced economies – the United States, Europe, and Japan – has been very slow both in absolute terms and relative to previous decades. But this is at odds with the view, prevailing in Silicon Valley and other global technology hubs, that we are entering a new golden era of innovation, which will radically increase productivity growth and improve the way we live and work. So why haven’t those gains appeared, and what might happen if they don’t? https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/productivity-paradox-explanations-populism-by-nouriel-roubini-2016-06?utm_source=Project+Syndicate+Newsletter&utm_campaign=aba2f915c6-Generation_Jobless_OP_6_5_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-aba2f915c6-93854061

JIM ROGERS vote TRUMP - YouTube

JIM ROGERS vote TRUMP - YouTube

Friday, June 3, 2016

What's India Got Over China? Plenty. - Bloomberg View

What's India Got Over China? Plenty. - Bloomberg View



As of 2015, India had 1.25 billion people versus China’s 1.37 billion. It won't be long before India's population is bigger.

Thursday, June 2, 2016

Rusty Ships and Unused Aircraft Carriers: the Other Side of Asia's Militaries - Bloomberg

Rusty Ships and Unused Aircraft Carriers: the Other Side of Asia's Militaries - Bloomberg



The outsize ambitions of the Royal Thai Navy are on display at a dock at the Sattahip naval base, south of Bangkok. The aircraft carrier HTMS Chakri Naruebet has no aircraft and has mostly been consigned to port since the 1997 financial crisis led to a funding shortfall. The ship is sometimes used in disaster relief, transporting the royal family, and in May this year participated in anti-submarine drills alongside the U.S. Navy.
Big Number: Thailand bought it for $230 million in 1997. The Spanish-made aircraft carrier's runway is too short for any aircraft other than helicopters and Harrier planes that can take off and land vertically.

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Wyeth, a Temple of Midcentury Modern Design, Seeks New Wallets - The New York Times

Wyeth, a Temple of Midcentury Modern Design, Seeks New Wallets - The New York Times



And then there’s 1stdibs. Once exclusive, the online site featuring modern and antique furniture, jewelry, fine art and other collectibles, has been ferociously signing up dealers who, as he puts it, “work out of storage lockers” in places like suburban Illinois with low rents, and don’t bother with the painstaking restoration for which Wyeth is known. The site is alsoincreasingly aggressive about collecting commissions on the online sales, a practice Mr. Birch sees as double-dipping.
Many of his Manhattan colleagues are already downsizing or folding up shop. Todd Merrill packed up his mirrored Paul Evans pieces and left Bleecker Street this winter for a location in the slightly more affordable financial district. In the fall, Alan Moss, the Art Deco purveyor, will close his Lafayette Street store and go online only.

Blade of Ancient Egyptian Dagger Analyzed - Archaeology Magazine

Blade of Ancient Egyptian Dagger Analyzed - Archaeology Magazine MILAN, ITALY—Daniela Comelli of the Polytechnic University of Milan and her team conducted an analysis of the dagger found in the wrappings of Tutankhamun’s mummy by Howard Carter in 1925. The dagger, which dates to the fourteenth century B.C., has a gold handle, a rock crystal pommel, a gold sheath, and an iron blade. But the ancient Egyptians are thought to have developed iron smelting much later, in the eighth century B.C. “The problem is iron working is related to its high melting point,” Comelli said in an Associated Press report. “Because of it, early smiths couldn’t heat ore enough to extract iron and couldn’t forge the iron into weapons.” Using a technique called X-ray fluorescence, Comelli found that Tutankhamun’s metal blade contains ten percent nickel and 0.6 percent cobalt, a composition that is similar to that of known metallic meteorites. The analysis suggests that the dagger could have been hammered from rare meteoritic iron, which is thought to have been considered more valuable than gold. For more, go to "Egypt’s Immigrant Elite."

Dear Apple, Please Make the iPhone Smarter - WSJ

Dear Apple, Please Make the iPhone Smarter - WSJ



Amazon’s Alexa is only in the Echo speaker in my living room, not with me 24/7, yet she is the closest thing I have to a computer-based valet. Alexa is always listening, quicker to respond (even if she doesn’t always know the answer as well as Siri) and works with third-party apps.
She can get me an Uber, she can order flowers via 1-800-FLOWERS, she can play Backstreet Boys on Spotify. Plus, unlike the hands-free “Hey Siri” prompt on my iPhone 6s, I don’t have to scream her name repeatedly when standing on the other side of the room. Microsoft’s Cortana integrated in Windows 10 may not yet work with third-party apps, either, but it is similarly responsive on the Dell XPS 13 from a few feet away.
The upcoming Google Assistant also promises to be able to carry a conversation. Available across apps and in a new Google Home speaker, the nongendered assistant will be able to help buy movie tickets and make dinner reservations without you typing or tapping.

Meet The Internet’s Best Productivity Tool: If This Then That - WSJ

Meet The Internet’s Best Productivity Tool: If This Then That - WSJ

The Genetic Tool That Will Modify Humanity - Bloomberg

The Genetic Tool That Will Modify Humanity - Bloomberg