Friday, March 29, 2019

Zillow, Opendoor, and ‘iBuyers’ are changing real estate transactions - Curbed

Zillow, Opendoor, and ‘iBuyers’ are changing real estate transactions - Curbed



...Imagine everything you need to do to buy a new home. If you already own a property, you’ll probably need a broker to sell it. You may also need a broker to find you a new place. You’ll need a mortgage lender to finance the purchase. You’ll have to buy title insurance and home insurance, and then find a moving company to haul all your stuff to the new digs.

Now imagine being able to get all of these services from one company. And better yet, imagine that this company will coordinate the timing of each stage of the transaction so that moving from one place to another becomes virtually seamless. Several real estate tech companies are racing to make this dream a reality.
Has tech-world “disruption” finally come for the cumbersome process of buying and selling a home? Algorithm-driven home-flipping companies like Opendoor, along with strategic shifts by major companies like Zillow and consolidations across the industry, seem to say yes.
...Factor in its existing listings sites and Zillow is currently the closest to providing an end-to-end customer experience for real estate....
...But as more players jump into the space and markets are saturated with various competing platforms, profit margins that are already paper thin get squeezed even more. Zillow says it’s making $1,723 per home flip at a minuscule 0.6 percent profit, which leads one to wonder if this space is really worth getting into if you don’t have multiple modes of monetization...

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Merkel Doesn't Want to Tell Germans the Good Times May Be Over - Bloomberg

Merkel Doesn't Want to Tell Germans the Good Times May Be Over - Bloomberg 



...Merkel herself has carefully avoided setting off any alarm bells, even as Brexit, China’s slowdown and U.S. trade tensions weigh on Germany. In an address to the Bundestag last week, she told lawmakers that she foresees “times of growth” ahead, while the outlook for the European Union has become “somewhat clouded.”




Wednesday, March 27, 2019

BBC - Future - Are we close to solving the puzzle of consciousness?

BBC - Future - Are we close to solving the puzzle of consciousness?

The eviction crisis is starting to look a lot like the subprime mortgage crisis - MarketWatch

The eviction crisis is starting to look a lot like the subprime mortgage crisis - MarketWatch



...It’s worth noting that many observers of the housing market believe the predatory lending practices that encouraged many people to stretch beyond their means to buy homes, and the failure of policymakers to address the pain experienced by so many Americans as a result, led to populist politics, including the shift driving the 2016 presidential campaign.

Indeed, the authors quote an unpublished research paper from Matthew Desmond and others that notes that serial filings can create “psychological strain, social withdrawal and legal cynicism toward the court system.”

Apple's News Subscription Service Still Doesn't Get It Right - Bloomberg

Apple's News Subscription Service Still Doesn't Get It Right - Bloomberg



...Apple went about creating the universal subscription in a boring, unimaginative way: It offered publishers access to its large installed base, offered to pay per view (like the Dutch start-up Blendle, which, however, also charges readers this way) and claimed a huge revenue cut: 50 percent. Then it went ahead without those who didn’t want to play by these rules.

The New York Times, meanwhile, has nothing against bundles: It has onewith Scribd, which also offers access to magazines and books. But bundling cuts into profit margins, and adding Apple’s cut makes playing along financially unattractive to a publisher confident of being able to sell its content without Apple’s help.
... fewer than 3 percent of monthly visitors run into a paywall as most people read fewer stories than their free monthly allotment.
... for example, some kind of digital key that lets a reader unlock the paywalls of all participating publishers until a monthly limit of articles is reached. The subscription price would depend on the limit, say, 200, 500 or 1,000 articles per month, and a publisher’s share of subscription revenue would depend on the share of a subscriber’s traffic that the publisher captures.

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

How residential energy storage could help support the power grid

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/how-residential-energy-storage-could-help-support-the-power-grid?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck&hlkid=b0e5ad18d07743058db5cd50ff3c47a7&hctky=3200528&hdpid=7ca329aa-60d8-4c8d-808a-226379142e86

he growth of battery storage in the power sector has attracted a great deal of attention in the industry and media. Much of that attention focuses on utility-scale batteries and on batteries for commercial and industrial customers. While these larger batteries are critical segments of the energy-storage market, the rapid growth of residential energy storage is outpacing expectations, and these household systems will likely become important assets sooner than many expect. 

Convictional - The top 10 startups from Y Combinator W19 Demo Day 1 | TechCrunch

The top 10 startups from Y Combinator W19 Demo Day 1 | TechCrunch



Convictional

Convictional helps direct-to-consumer companies approach larger retailers more simply. It takes a lot of time for a supplier to build a relationship with a retailer and start selling their products. Convictional wants to speed things up by building a B2B self-service commerce platform that allows retailers to easily approach brands and make orders.
Why we picked Convictional: There’s been an explosion of D2C businesses selling everything from suitcases to shaving kits. But to drive exposure and scale, they need retail partners who’re eager not to be cut out of this growing commerce segment. Playing middleman could put Convictional in a lucrative position, while also making it a nexus of valuable shopping data.

‘Gazundering’ Hits House Prices in U.K. Property Market - Bloomberg

‘Gazundering’ Hits House Prices in U.K. Property Market - Bloomberg



...Gazundering, where a buyer lowers their offer for a home at the last minute, is becoming a growing problem, according to a report.

Some 45 percent of people surveyed think gazundering is a serious problem, up from 40 percent when similar research was carried out last year.
Gazundering can happen just before a sale is set to go through, with sellers sometimes feeling under pressure to accept the lower price to stop the deal collapsing.

Sunday, March 24, 2019

On My Radar: QE is Coming Back - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

On My Radar: QE is Coming Back - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail



...The Fed will now taper the liquidation of its Treasury holdings in May and stop in September. More important, they will also let their mortgage securities portfolio mature and use the proceeds to buy more Treasury securities. That means purchasing a minimum of $300 billion in predominately shorter-term U.S. Treasuries in 2020. Concluding, basically, QE-lite is coming.



... with the aging demographic, is a very, very, very, very low neutral interest rate.


"That's why Japan's at zero, Sweden's negative, the euro zone is at zero, Australia, New Zealand are at 1–2% with their high population rate and all these countries are decelerating [in growth]. There's a massive amount of debt and that may be contributing to an incredibly low neutral level of interest rates."

....We know exactly what they (Fed) will do… seen movie before. 2007, Bank of Japan (“BOJ”) was at 26% of GDP on their balance sheet and said no more QQE, markets fell, QQE resumed and now BOJ has 100% GDP on its balance sheet and they own 46% of Japanese Government Bonds and 75% of ETFs… The ECB and the Fed are just BOJ with 9 to 11-year lag.”

... I’m more in the “OMG, what must be happening that we are not yet seeing” camp. Is a major systemic player in crisis? My father used to say, “Watch what they are doing not what they are saying.”  I see doing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oTLk8t0nwk&feature=youtu.be

Mauldin/Blumenthal/Cucchiaro Podcast




Rise of Private Investments Undermines Mark-to-Market Values - Bloomberg

Rise of Private Investments Undermines Mark-to-Market Values - Bloomberg



The world is wealthier now than it’s ever been — but only on paper. Much of this prosperity may prove illusory as a global shift toward less liquid investments undermines the basis of valuation.
Private equity, infrastructure and private credit have become a bigger share of investment portfolios, making mark-to-market values increasingly uncertain. The standard method of valuing assets assumes prices are available and that there is adequate trading liquidity to be able to sell at those levels. This may hold for traditional investments such as stocks and bonds. But assets such as private equity are rarely traded or not tradable at all, necessitating the use of models or proxies instead...
...Over recent years, trading volumes have declined for most asset classes due to a reduction in dealer numbers, regulations that make it more expensive to hold trading inventory, and central bank intervention. Meanwhile, prices for smaller-cap shares, as well as many corporate and structured bonds, emerging- and frontier-market securities, and distressed debt may not be consistently available. These factors combined with the growth of large funds and the size of holdings mean that the ability to sell at quoted prices is questionable.  
...discounting future cash flows. These may be distorted by low rates and decreased risk premiums. The models typically require a residual value...
...Sometimes, known sales are used as proxies to establish or calibrate model values. These suffer from the problem of small sample sizes and a lack of exact correspondence to the asset being valued. Adjustments are necessarily subjective. ...
...Where the asset value secures borrowings, unrealized losses may trigger margin calls, creating a liquidity squeeze and forced sales that further depress prices.
...Performance-based compensation encourages aggressive valuations that increase assets under management and generate higher fees for managers....

Saturday, March 23, 2019

No Free Lunch, Part 2

https://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/TFTF_Mar_22_2019.pdf



...There are many ways to manage portfolio risk and control losses. The tools include direct hedges (e.g., options), portfolio structure (e.g., diversification), and active management (e.g., dollar cost averaging, rebalancing, value investing). Some investment funds and financial advisors provide these for investors who don’t have the time or interest in actively managing their portfolios.



,,,John Mauldin here. Long time readers know I’m a fan of diversifying your trading strategies as opposed to merely diversifying asset classes. 

Friday, March 22, 2019

Atheism Is Inconsistent with the Scientific Method, Prizewinning Physicist Says

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atheism-is-inconsistent-with-the-scientific-method-prizewinning-physicist-says/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily-digest&utm_content=link&utm_term=2019-03-21_featured-this-week&spMailingID=58798902&spUserID=Mzk5MzY5OTMwNjI2S0&spJobID=1602779071&spReportId=MTYwMjc3OTA3MQS2

when you look at the history of life on Earth, you will realize this place called Earth is absolutely amazing. And maybe, yes, there are others out there, possibly—who knows, we certainly expect so—but right now what we know is that we have this world, and we are these amazing molecular machines capable of self-awareness, and all that makes us very special indeed. And we know for a fact that there will be no other humans in the universe; there may be some humanoids somewhere out there, but we are unique products of our single, small planet’s long history.

Why Is There More Matter Than Antimatter? - scientific american

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-is-there-more-matter-than-antimatter/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily-digest&utm_content=link&utm_term=2019-03-21_top-stories&spMailingID=58798902&spUserID=Mzk5MzY5OTMwNjI2S0&spJobID=1602779071&spReportId=MTYwMjc3OTA3MQS2

Why do we exist? This is arguably the most profound question there is and one that may seem completely outside the scope of particle physics. But our new experiment at CERN’s Large Hadron Collider has taken us a step closer to figuring it out.

To understand why, let’s go back in time some 13.8 billion years to the Big Bang. This event produced equal amounts of the matter you are made of and something called antimatter. It is believed that every particle has an antimatter companion that is virtually identical to itself, but with the opposite charge. When a particle and its antiparticle meet, they annihilate each other—disappearing in a burst of light.

Why the universe we see today is made entirely out of matter is one of the greatest mysteries of modern physics....

...Antimatter particles should in principle be perfect mirror images of their normal companions. But experiments show this isn’t always the case. Take for instance particles known as mesons, which are made of one quark and one anti-quark. Neutral mesons have a fascinating feature: they can spontaneously turn into their anti-meson and vice versa. In this process, the quark turns into an anti-quark or the anti-quark turns into a quark. But experiments have shown that this can happen more in one direction than the opposite one—creating more matter than antimatter over time.

...While we still cannot completely solve the mystery of the universe’s matter-antimatter asymmetry, our latest discovery has opened the door to an era of precision measurements that have the potential to uncover yet unknown phenomena. There’s every reason to be optimistic that physics will one day be able to explain why we are here at all.






Thursday, March 21, 2019

In Revolut's Rush to Be Uber of Finance, Mobile Bank Tests Limits - Bloomberg

In Revolut's Rush to Be Uber of Finance, Mobile Bank Tests Limits - Bloomberg



...The potential risks of the rapid expansion emerged when the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority said it was looking into allegations raised on Feb. 28 by British newspaper, The Telegraph, that Revolut switched off a key compliance software for three months last summer.

On the same day, tech publication Wired quoted former employees and job applicants recounting burn-out inducing work conditions, bullying managers and potentially illegal hiring practices. Earlier in February, Revolut was caught using phony statistics in an advertising campaign.
...His solution: a pre-paid debit card with no foreign transaction fees.
It was an instant hit and gave him and Revolut co-founder Vlad Yatsenko the momentum to expand quickly into other services: international money transfers, budgeting tools, travel and mobile phone insurance and cryptocurrency trading. Within months it will unveil savings and checking accounts, loans and commission-free stock trading.
...“Unless you solve financial crime and compliance issues through automation, our business won’t scale,” Storonsky said.
Problem is, many important sources of data, such as emails, paper documents, and PDF files, aren't easily vetted by computer programs, ..Making a thorough check is even harder when a potential customer's information is spread across several countries.


When the U.S. falls into a recession, a credit bubble will explode - MarketWatch

When the U.S. falls into a recession, a credit bubble will explode - MarketWatch



.... Corporate debt issuance, especially high-yield debt, has exploded since 2009.

2. Tighter regulations discouraged banks from making markets in corporate and high-yield debt.
Both are problems, but the second is worse. Experts tell me that Dodd-Frank requirements have reduced major banks’ market-making abilities by around 90%. For now, bond market liquidity is fine because hedge funds and other non-bank lenders have filled the gap.
The problem is they are not true market makers. Nothing requires them to hold inventory or to buy when you want to sell. That means all the bids can “magically” disappear just when you need them most.
Worse, I don’t have enough exclamation points to describe the disaster when all high-yield funds try to sell at once and at fire-sale prices to meet redemptions. In a bear market, you sell what you can, not what you want to. The picture will not be pretty.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Good enough to eat? The toxic truth about modern food | Books | The Guardian





Good enough to eat? The toxic truth about modern food | Books | The Guardian



...What we eat now is a greater cause of disease and death in the world than either tobacco or alcohol. In 2015 around 7 million people died from tobacco smoke, and 2.75 million from causes related to alcohol, but 12m deaths could be attributed to “dietary risks” such as diets low in vegetables, nuts and seafood or diets high in processed meats and sugary drinks.



...The nutrient content of our meals is one thing that has radically changed; the psychology of eating is another.



...no population in the world eats exactly the combination of healthy foods that a nutritionist might prescribe.



Every human community across the globe eats a mixture of the “healthy” and the “unhealthy”, but the salient question is where the balance falls. 
...The occasional bowl of instant ramen noodles or frosted cereal is no cause for panic. But when ultra-processed foods start to form the bulk of what whole populations eat on any given day, we are in new and disturbing territory for human nutrition. More than half of the calorie intake in the US – 57.9% – now consists of ultra-processed food, and the UK is not far behind, with a diet that is around 50.4% ultra-processed. The fastest growing ingredient in global diets is not sugar, as I’d always presumed, but refined vegetable oils such as soybean oil, which are a common ingredient in many fast and processed foods, and which have added more calories to what we eat over the past 50 years than any other food group, by a wide margin.
...If you want to find the people who eat the most wholegrains, you will either have to look to the affluent Nordic countries where they still eat rye bread or to the poor countries of sub-Saharan Africa, where nourishing grains such as sorghum, maize, millet and teff are made into healthy main dishes usually accompanied by some kind of stew, soup or relish.

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Going Out of Business Is Hottest Trend in U.K. Shopping - Bloomberg

Going Out of Business Is Hottest Trend in U.K. Shopping - Bloomberg



...High rents and property taxes are making it difficult for companies to keep stores open, and closings now outnumber openings. Once buzzing town centers are emptying out as shutters are drawn.

Online Dominates

Britain is in the global vanguard of online sales
With 17 percent of retail sales occurring online, Britain is well ahead of the U.S. and other European countries. (23% China, 13.7 US)

Obesity Is Now Africa’s Health Care Crisis, Too - Bloomberg

Obesity Is Now Africa’s Health Care Crisis, Too - Bloomberg



... A quarter or more of adults in many African countries have at least three of these four risk factors. Most of these adults are women aged 45 to 64. 

One of the main causes are dietary habits that include too many refined carbohydrates, oils and sugars that have come with the proliferation of convenience foods. In addition, there is a traditional belief that excess weight is a symbol of prosperity and wealth. Often obese people are unaware of the risks until told by doctors, and most of them say they wish they had known about it earlier. 

Saturday, March 16, 2019

Puerto Rico's bond saga is messing up mainland municipal markets — Quartz

Puerto Rico's bond saga is messing up mainland municipal markets — Quartz



...Stern estimates that special revenue bonds now make up around a third of the $3.8 trillion municipal bond market in the US. 



...Puerto Rico’s bankruptcy has raised questions about whether special revenue bonds are really as safe as investors thought.



...2016, and after Puerto Rico defaulted on its general obligation bonds, those bondholders sued to grab a share of the sales tax revenues. They claimed the money was rightfully theirs, since the Puerto Rican Constitution says that general obligation bonds must be paid first with “all available” resources.



... COFINA bondholders also agreed to give back $456 million in annual sales tax revenues to the government (nearly half of the yearly revenues that had initially been pledged), which can use the funds to pay the general obligation bondholders, among others. That was key to convincing the hedge funds gunning for the COFINAs to drop their lawsuit, and what has left investors questioning how safe other such structures will prove to be.



...backed by tolls collected by Puerto Rico’s Highways and Transportation Authority (HTA), has also raised big questions for investors.



Swain held that the HTA, which has $4.3 billion in outstanding debt,  doesn’t have to make payments to its bondholders during the island’s bankruptcy. 
...Swain’s decision is under appeal. Long, like many analysts, believe she got it wrong, and the dispute will likely be litigated all the way to the Supreme Court

New carmaker on the block: Byton’s CEO on China’s car of the future

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/new-carmaker-on-the-block-bytons-ceo-on-chinas-car-of-the-future?cid=mobility-eml-alt-mcq-mck&hlkid=534b0782f9e54989bd5602fd52be3cde&hctky=3200528&hdpid=64275caa-1d28-4eed-ac1c-4fd13432b97d

....Carsten Breitfeld: China is the place where the future of mobility will be shaped, developed, and designed, for four reasons. One, it’s the biggest market in the world, with about 30 million yearly car sales right now. Two, everything in China is developing at high speed, in every sense. Three, there’s a lot of money, and its investors are prepared to invest not just in early-stage companies but also in teams and ideas. We raised $240 million in A-round funding from Chinese investors, based just on a design we had as a team and on a business plan. This would never happen in Europe, and rarely in the United States. The fourth factor is the strong political will to make this happen. The Chinese government wants future transportation to be electric and smart. And when it comes to smart transportation, you need a strong 5G network and infrastructure.

No Free Lunch: Valuation Determines Return

https://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/TFTF_Mar_15_2019.pdf

Valuation Matters

Markowitz advised us to use relevant assumptions. To assess relevance and reasonableness, let’s consider a period long enough to smooth short-term fluctuations, yet not so long that an investor loses the opportunity to adjust expectations, lifestyle, savings rate, etc. For most investors, that period is a decade or two. If you are age 55 or over, 20 years starts to sound like the long run.
As previously mentioned, the stock market’s nominal long-term annualized total return has been around 10%. Total return includes capital gains as well as dividends. The century-long 10% average is also close to the average annualized return across all 110 decade-long periods since 1900 (i.e., 1900–1909, 1901–1910, etc.). Yet none of those decades delivered exactly 10%.
To assess the reasonableness of using 10% as an assumption for future annualized returns, a range is more relevant than a single value. If a high percentage of the decades fall near the average, then it would be reasonable to assume that average is relevant and has a reasonable likelihood of occurring. However, if near-average is rare, then such an assumption would be foolish.
To be generous to the analysis, let’s say 8% to 12% represent a near-average range. Although 8% and 12% deliver quite different long-term return results, our purpose here is just to assess credibility.
As shown below, only 21% of the decade-long periods since 1900 delivered annualized total return from the S&P 500 Index between 8% and 12%, and strikingly few were close to the 10% average. Only about one-third of the periods showed a compounded rate over 12%. Almost half of the periods showed less than 8% annual returns!
With almost 80% of the decade-long periods not near-average, using 10% as a relevant assumption for the next decade or two is a long-shot bet. For investors patient enough to evaluate twenty-year periods, the incidence of near-average values between 8% and 12% increases to 35%. Thus, the odds-on bet—at least two-thirds of the time—is to assume nowhere close to 10%.
Taking the analysis of decade-long periods a step further, let’s explore the effect of relative valuation on returns. Stock market valuation is most often measured with the price/earnings ratio (P/E).
Across the 110 decade-long periods, total return for the S&P 500 Index ranged from an annualized loss of almost -2% to an annualized gain of just under 20%. Even a ten-year period wasn’t enough to ensure a gain. Four of the decade-long periods delivered losses, and even more when inflation is taken into account.
The next chart divides the series into five quintiles, each with twenty-two of the decades. The first quintile includes the twenty-two periods with the lowest starting value for P/E. The second quintile has the next lowest set and the fifth quintile includes the decades starting with the highest P/E values.
The graph and table present the average value for P/E in each of the quintiles as well as the corresponding average annualized total return. As the market’s valuation level rises, the level of return realized from the stock market declines.
For example, the average P/E for the lowest twenty-two decades is 8.5 and the average compounded annualized return is 13.5%. The average P/E across the highest twenty-two periods is 26.9, with return averaging 4.8%. As beginning P/E rises, the subsequent return slides.
There is some variation and occasional outliers within these quintiles. For example, some periods start with high valuation and end with even higher valuation (e.g., 1995). In other instances (e.g., 1974), relatively low valuation was even lower ten years later. Bull market and bear market cycles run for various lengths. But when assessed in the aggregate, the relationship of valuation and subsequent return is strong. A higher valuation is strongly associated with diminished returns over the next 10­–20 years.
This is intriguing because the results are counterintuitive. It raises a question about whether either or both of the extremes might be predictable. Is there a way to know at the start of the ten-year period whether it’s likely to deliver above-average or below-average returns?
The quintiles provide a hint to the underlying cause, but don’t provide all of the answers. It also doesn’t address whether the relationship of valuation and return is simple correlation or is causal. These answers and insights could significantly impact an investor’s decision about the most appropriate investment approach. It would even provide buy-and-hold investors with a better expectation for their likely outcome.

Russia's Annexation of Crimea 5 Years Ago Has Cost Putin Dearly - Bloomberg

Russia's Annexation of Crimea 5 Years Ago Has Cost Putin Dearly - Bloomberg



...If the Crimea operation was a flash of evil brilliance and daredevil’s luck, Putin’s later overconfidence ended up trapping him in this limbo of mistrust. Russia, the world and, likely, parts of the Russian establishment are waiting for Putin to go, even if no one can make him leave. Perhaps, with him out of the picture, deals, bargains, mutual concessions and all kinds of realpolitik games will be possible again, as they still were in the spring of 2014. Meanwhile, Fortress Russia is locked and no one’s coming to parley.

Friday, March 15, 2019

Income Before: $18,000. After: $85,000. Does Tiny Nonprofit Hold a Key to the Middle Class? - The New York Times

Income Before: $18,000. After: $85,000. Does Tiny Nonprofit Hold a Key to the Middle Class? - The New York Times





BUSINESS|Income Before: $18,000. After: $85,000. Does Tiny Nonprofit Hold a Key to the Middle Class?

Income Before: $18,000. After: $85,000. Does Tiny Nonprofit Hold a Key to the Middle Class?

The founders of Pursuit, Jukay Hsu, left, and David Yang, at their headquarters in Queens. Their nonprofit program has made a mark by placing trainees in well-paying technology jobs and financing its growth in an innovative way.CreditJohn Taggart for The New York Times
Image
The founders of Pursuit, Jukay Hsu, left, and David Yang, at their headquarters in Queens. Their nonprofit program has made a mark by placing trainees in well-paying technology jobs and financing its growth in an innovative way.CreditCreditJohn Taggart for The New York Times
Jukay Hsu is an enthusiastic Amazon backer. He wanted the company to build a big new campus in New York and participated in wooing it. He met with Amazon executives and appeared in a video pitch, and his tech-training program for disadvantaged New Yorkers was cited in the city’s written proposal to the company.
But Mr. Hsu said he also understood the local resistance to Amazon, and why it had won out.
“I believe tech can be a road to the middle class for large numbers of Americans,” said Mr. Hsu, a co-founder and the chief executive of Pursuit, a nonprofit social venture. “But there’s real skepticism about that among people who see the winners in technology as a small network of the privileged.”
He is using Pursuit, housed in a former zipper factory in Long Island City, the Queens neighborhood where Amazon had intended to locate, to try to prove those skeptics wrong.
The venture is a small yet innovative player in a growing number of nonprofits developing new models for work force training. Their overarching goal is upward mobility for low-income Americans and the two-thirds of workers without four-year college degrees.
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Pursuit, according to its donors and to work force experts, stands out for the size of the income gains of its graduates and its experiment with a kind of bond to finance growth. It is a program worth watching, they say, and beginning to attract attention nationally.
About 85 percent of Pursuit’s 300 graduates have landed well-paying tech jobs within a year. They work as software engineers both at major corporations like JPMorgan Chase and at start-ups like Oscar Health. They earn $85,000 a year on average, compared with $18,000 before the Pursuit program.
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“That jump in income is powerful and extraordinary, really closing the prosperity gap for people,” said Wes Moore, chief executive of the Robin Hood Foundation, one of Pursuit’s financial supporters.
The group is similar in many ways to larger regional and national initiatives like Opportunity@Work’s TechHire, Year Up, Per Scholas and the Markle Foundation’s Skillful.
The groups all focus on careers in technology because the jobs are plentiful and pay well. They measure success by the number of people placed in jobs and propelled into the middle class. Traditional government-funded job training programs tend to focus more on how many people sign up for courses.
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Pursuit, by design, seeks people with the “highest need” and potential, but it is selective, accepting only 10 percent of its applicants. Its outreach relies heavily on presentations at public housing buildings and libraries, and word-of-mouth referrals.
The program is free for the participants, who can attend either weekdays or on evenings and weekends. No previous coding experience is required.
Max Rosado heard about the Pursuit program from a friend. Intrigued, he filled out an online form, and made it through a written test in math and logic, interviews and a weekend workshop with simple coding drills, joining the 10-month program in 2016.
At Pursuit, Mr. Rosado, who has a two-year community college degree in liberal arts, got an intensive immersion in programming languages, concepts and projects. But the curriculum also covered so-called soft skills like making presentations, working in teams and writing résumés and thank-you notes.
Today, Mr. Rosado, 30, is an engineer at GrubHub, the meal delivery service, working on its smartphone software. In his previous jobs, in back office and sales associate roles in stores, he earned $15,000 to $20,000 a year. He makes nearly $100,000 now, he said.
Before Pursuit, Mr. Rosado, who is married with two young children, did not have enough to get by, living temporarily with relatives and sometimes in homeless shelters. Today, he and his family live in a two-bedroom apartment in the Bronx. Restaurant meals, movie outings with his children and a vacation to Florida last year are now within reach.
“Those are amenities that I never thought were possible before,” he said.
More than half of Pursuit fellows, as the venture calls its students, are on public assistance of some kind. Its classes are nearly half women, in contrast to many tech-training programs, which usually have far more men than women.
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Pursuit screens applicants for many characteristics, but those mainly fall into two categories: problem-solving skills and perseverance. The program, Mr. Hsu said, looks for people who are hungry and determined, willing to put in the time and effort to become a software developer, but also able to adapt to new and unfamiliar environments.
“We’re asking a person to make a huge change in life trajectory,” he said. “Are you up for that? All-in for the long term?”
The emphasis on long-term results is the reason Pursuit bills itself as a four-year program: about a year in the immersive program, and three years of mentorship.
“If we’re just focused on the front end, getting that initial job, that’s a mistake, a very lazy metric,” Mr. Hsu explained.
He said his life experiences helped him empathize with the challenges that Pursuit fellows faced. His family emigrated from Taiwan when he was 3, and his father abandoned the family soon after. His mother is a psychiatric social worker in Queens.
Mr. Hsu, 34, attended Stuyvesant High School, an elite public high school in Manhattan, where he was student body president. He then graduated from Harvard, majoring in economics.
While many of his Harvard classmates headed to Wall Street, Mr. Hsu signed up for the Reserve Officers Training Corps. He led combat patrols and economic development projects in Iraq.
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When Mr. Hsu returned in 2011, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s administration was promoting technology initiatives and education as a key to the city’s economic future. Mr. Hsu and another Queens native, David Yang, met and decided to pursue the opportunity to bring some of that to the borough, setting up their civic tech venture, then called Coalition for Queens.
They huddled with local officials, worked on a strategic plan and tried to rally support at meet-ups. Pursuit’s long-term vision is of “an inclusive tech community,” which would include building an incubator and investing in local entrepreneurs. They set up a for-profit arm for those activities, but those are more distant goals.
The immediate need, they saw, is for work force training.
“Building community is great, but people need skills,” Mr. Yang said. Its first class, in 2013, had just 24 people.
More than a dozen institutions support Pursuit’s work, including family foundations, the New York City Council, Salesforce, Google and Walmart.
But Pursuit is also a financial innovator, as it seeks funds beyond philanthropy to fuel its expansion. It calls its financing mechanism a bond — one for each annual cohort of fellows.
Begun in 2017, the Pursuit bonds have helped it double the number of people in the program. An investor is paid back by an income share agreement: If graduates make more than $60,000 a year, they agree to pay 12 percent of their income to the investors for three years.
To date, the principal investor in the Pursuit bond has been the Inherent Group, which also helped design it. The group invests in companies focused on environmental and social change and has a foundation.
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So far, the graduate placement rate exceeds Inherent’s assumptions, the default rate is lower, and the average salary of the repaying graduates is more than $85,000. The effective interest rate on the bonds is 6.6 percent, said Tony Davis, chief executive of Inherent.
Mr. Rosado, the GrubHub engineer, who is making income-share payments, views them as a fair bargain.
“It assists the next generation of Pursuit fellows to join the tech industry,” he said. “And I’m still making way more than I did.”
Follow Steve Lohr on Twitter: @SteveLohr
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