WSJ CIO - Startup Burn Rates

Marc Andreessen Worries About Startup Burn Rates When tech bubble dismisser Marc Andreessen worries about startup burn rates, it might be a good idea to pay attention. His venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz has invested in more than 50 enterprise startups companies including Box Inc. He’s joining a growing chorus of venture capitalists who are sounding alarm bells over excessive spending by tech startups, writes the Journal’s Zoran Basich. CIOs who rely on startups may want to inquire about how fast they’re burning cash and make contingency plans in case they can’t raise follow-on funding.

On-Line Self Analysis Quizzes (from WSJ 10 Point Guide, 9.23.2014)

In recent months, social-media sites have seen an explosion of online quizzes, such as those asking users to reveal what kind of cheese they might be or which "Friends" character they are. The trend has been sparked largely by a push from the New York media company BuzzFeed. Our story looks at how these quizzes have become a cheap form of modern self-analysis—a completely unscientific one, with the questions (and computer-generated results) put together by writers more interested in driving traffic than deep psychological insight. We find that in January BuzzFeed's online quiz team landed its first big hit with, "What City Should You Actually Live In?" Soon it was surpassed in February with "What State Do You Actually Belong In?" "At some point, we figured out we had told more people to move to Wisconsin than actually live in Wisconsin," said BuzzFeed's managing editorial director in charge of the quiz-creating team. 

Subsidy Costs - Merkel’s Taste for Coal to Upset $130 Billion Green Drive - Bloomberg

Merkel’s Taste for Coal to Upset $130 Billion Green Drive - Bloomberg



Consumers paid 106 billion euros between 2000 and 2013 to renewable energy producers, according to the nation’s four grids. To stem gains, the government cut green subsidies last month by 29 percent on average to 120 euros a megawatt-hour, according to the Economics and Energy Ministry’s website.

Merkel’s Taste for Coal to Upset $130 Billion Green Drive - Bloomberg

Merkel’s Taste for Coal to Upset $130 Billion Green Drive - Bloomberg



The cost of renewable energy - Germany:



"...The transition, dubbed the Energiewende, has so far added more than 100 billion euros ($134 billion) to the power bills of households, shop owners and small factories as renewable energy met a record 25 percent of demand last year. RWE AG (RWE), the nation’s biggest power producer, last year reported its first loss since 1949 as utility margins are getting squeezed because laws give green power priority to the grids."

dangers & warning signs: Dirty Secret of $1 Trillion Loans Is When Do You Get Money Back - Bloomberg

Dirty Secret of $1 Trillion Loans Is When Do You Get Money Back - Bloomberg

Imagine a trillion-dollar market that runs on faxes and phone calls while routinely tying up investors’ money for months before they get any return.

That’s not fiction: It’s the unregulated market for leveraged corporate loans....seeking yield...

The antiquated structure of a market that’s ballooned from a mere $35 billion in 1997 poses a growing threat, raising the odds of gridlock in a downturn when investors expect to get their money back with a click of a button. As of yet, no regulators have taken responsibility for fixing the deficiency....

Some of the worst delays in settlement times can be found in the market for new loans, where Pimco’s MacLean said it’s not uncommon for months to pass before a purchase is completed....

...Investors committed $1.2 billion in October to fund a loan for junk-rated Huntsman Corp. For about 10 months, they didn’t receive a dime.

Salt Lake City-based Huntsman obtained the financing to help pay for its purchase of Rockwood Holdings Inc.’s titanium dioxide business. The merger has taken longer than anticipated because of an antitrust holdup....

While buyers and sellers can trade stocks and bonds among themselves, they need the approval of corporate borrowers before they can exchange loans. Clerks must then update loan documents to reflect new lenders.....

The concern is that there may be a mass exodus from mutual funds that could strain the loan market as investors anticipate rising borrowing costs and defaults. Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds settle investors’ redemption requests within three to seven days, according to Moody’s Investors Service data.

“There’s kind of a liquidity mismatch,” the University of Michigan’s Gordon said. When investors try to redeem and can’t get their money back right away, more will try to pull cash, risking a run, he said.

U.S. Health System Among Least Efficient Before Obamacare - Bloomberg

U.S. Health System Among Least Efficient Before Obamacare - Bloomberg



...There’s a lack of accountability among Americans, according to policy experts. “We keep protecting individuals from the health-care costs that come from the fact that we don’t have healthy lifestyles,” Cindy Gillespie, a senior managing director at the law and policy firm McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP. “We haven’t accepted that people have an element of personal responsibility around their health.”...



...For example, Singapore hospital wards are classified by amenities and level of government subsidy provided, according to the book Affordable Excellence, the Singapore Healthcare Story by William Haseltine, president of the consulting group Access Health International. The wards range from A, where there are private rooms and a choice of doctors, to C, where as many as nine people share a room and doctors are assigned. People in A wards don’t get a subsidy while those in C wards get 80 of their care paid for by the government....

A Better Future Needs a Bit of a Push - Bloomberg View

A Better Future Needs a Bit of a Push - Bloomberg View



...Thiel identifies one big problem as stagnation in energy. For centuries, we kept getting better energy sources -- first coal, then oil. That powered faster transportation, cheaper construction, bigger appliances and better materials....

...Another important Thiel point is that our public infrastructure is decaying. This is partly a result of stagnant spending, but we’re also getting less bang for our buck. ...

...Bringing down high infrastructure costs will involve taking on a lot of entrenched interests -- government contractors, property owners and unions. ...

...A third good point by Thiel is that regulation may already be slowing progress dramatically in the field of biosciences. 

Thoughts from the Frontline - Scotland Allowing 16-year- olds to vote in the election

What’s on Your Radar Screen? By John Mauldin | Sep 14, 2014

Scotland. What has not been widely discussed is that the voting age was changed in Scotland just a few years ago. For this election, anyone in Scotland over 16 years old is eligible. Think about that for a second. Have you ever asked 16-year-olds whether they would like to be more free and independent and gotten a “no” answer? They don’t think with their economic brains, or at least most of them don’t. If we can believe the polls, this is going to be a very close election. The winning margin may be determined by whether the “yes” vote can bring out the young generation (especially young males, who are running 90% yes) in greater numbers than the “no” vote can bring out the older folks. Right now it looks as though it will be all about voter turnout.

BlackRock Money Market Funds Refuse to Lose Value - Bloomberg View

Sort of proof that the well-intentioned benevolence of regulators shouldn't be one-sided in its approach. If the broader market wants something that the regulators are prohibiting, the market will find a way. Highlights below:



BlackRock Money Market Funds Refuse to Lose Value - Bloomberg View

See, the way it normally works is, if you have $10,000 in a money market fund, you have 10,000 shares each worth $1.2 When the fund pays interest, it does it by distributing shares: You had 10,000 shares, it paid 0.1 percent interest, now you have 10,010 shares each worth $1.

BlackRock's innovation is: When the fund pays negative interest, it does it by distributing negative shares. You had 10,000 shares, it paid negative 0.1 percent interest, now you have 9,990 shares each worth $1. But your shares never lost value. Some of them just disappeared is all. It's a reverse distribution.3

The Most Profound Revolution in World Affairs in Almost Four Centuries (from Bloomberg 8 Sept. 2014)

Toxic Stew of New Technology, Old Hatreds in World Crises - Bloomberg (excerpts)

...The crises that dominate today’s news -- Ukraine, Islamic State, Libya, Ebola, Gaza, cyber-attacks -- are symptoms of the most profound revolution in world affairs in almost four centuries.

A toxic stew of new technologies, old hatreds, eroding boundaries, tattered alliances, environmental dangers and independent groups are making the world more interconnected and less stable at an accelerating rate, forcing the U.S. and other nations to re-invent their approaches to defending their borders, populations and economies.

“We need to look at the world as it is, not as it used to be,” 

Epochal events of the past century, from two world wars and the Holocaust to the rise and fall of the Soviet Union and China’s emergence on the world stage, all have taken place within the architecture of nation-states.

Kissinger and others say that swelling urban populations, masses of underemployed youth, dwindling food and water supplies and social media’s quicksilver connections are eroding the western European, state-based system that was ushered in 366 years ago next month by the Peace of Westphalia.

“When you look at the world today, there are whole countries where there are 60 percent of the population under the age of 30, 50 percent under the age of 21, and 40 percent under the age of
18,” Secretary of State John Kerry said at the State Department in Washington on Sept. 3.

“We know that all of these young people in today’s interconnected globalized world, with the media that’s available to them -- just look at the numbers in sub-Sahara Africa of young people walking around with smartphones -- they don’t have a job, they don’t have an education, but they’re connected,” Kerry said.

“We know that all of them are, as a result, demanding opportunity and dignity,” he said. “We also know that a cadre of extremists -- nihilists, people like ISIL -- are just waiting to seduce these people into accepting the dead end.”

…“The economic system has become global, while the political structure of the world remains based on the nation-state,” … “Economic globalization, in its essence, ignores national frontiers.”...

VW Says: Stay Just Three Years Behind

Toyota’s fuel-cell car going on sale next year, initially in California, will cost about $50 to fill up for about 300 miles of range, Bob Carter, senior vice president at Toyota’s U.S. operations, said Aug. 12 at a JPMorgan Chase & Co. conference. The cost will eventually fall to about $30 based on Energy Department estimates, he said.

Toyota partnered with the University of California to model the specific locations that would be needed to handle a population of more than 10,000 fuel cells and believes it needs only 68 stations initially, Carter said last month. The state plans to spend $200 million to build at least 100 stations by 2024, with 40 ready by the end of 2016, he said.

“There are still a lot of questions lingering about how practical it is even though Toyota launches next year,” said Maruta, the Volkswagen spokesman. “By the time it gets very usable by the normal customers, it’s maybe still a decade or two decades away.”

Still, Volkswagen is hedging its bets. The company is monitoring Toyota’s progress with the aim of staying within no more than three years of development work behind its Japanese rival in matching its fuel cell technology, Shoji said.



VW Says Fuel-Cell Cars Doomed to Struggle Beyond Japan - Bloomberg

If one ever doubted the ability to accurately focus most marketing studies on any longer-term basis...

EU Bets a Billion on Fantastic Voyage Exploiting Graphene - Bloomberg



Here is just a hint of what's contained in the article:



"Novalia, a Cambridge, England-based startup, mixes graphene in ink to print posters and packaging that play music. The graphene acts as a conductor, so when the image is touched, it sends a signal, via Bluetooth wireless, to a smartphone that sounds the chords. Another Cambridge company, Plastic Logic, is using it to make computer screens that can be folded like paper. Neither company receives EU graphene funding.



Four projects, receiving more than a million euros combined, are based at the Institute of Photonic Sciences, in Barcelona. One group is making night-vision cameras with graphene. Because the material is very efficient at absorbing light, a graphene camera can “see” in the dark with more precision than other kinds of night vision, said Frank Koppens, a professor at the institute.

“Graphene absorbs light from any wavelength, and can see on the infra-red and ultra-violet spectrum,” Koppens said. “A lion or a snake can do this, but we cannot. The device takes over this capability.”

Cars installed with night-vision cameras could project the enhanced image of the road onto the windshield, so driving at night could be as safe as during the day, he said. Koppens hopes to have a prototype to show auto manufacturers within three to four years, he said."

An Eccentric Thought – Should Japan Formally Monetize Much of Its Debt

An Eccentric Thought – Should Japan Formally Monetize Much of Its Debt Background: A. Japan has a stagnant economy; low or no inflation; and is talking about raising taxes on consumers; and, it has very high corporate taxes. B. The Japanese central bank has already been buying-in substantial amounts of government debt. Options: 1. Japan wants to grow its economy but it is actually talking about further increases to taxes to service its debt (note: most of this is principle only as interest rates are so low). 2. What would happen if Japan dropped its tax rates (sales and income) and monetized it (i.e. have the Japan Central Bank write the debt off)? Considerations: While in the early 1980’s US, the Federal Reserve worried about having to ‘start’ to monetize US debt to be able to fund the government, it never did so – back in the 1980’s. Since the 2007/08 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has essentially monetized several trillion dollars of US debt – what were the negative consequences that were feared (i.e. inflation) and what happened (i.e. no inflation). Individuals and businesses in the US frequently resort to bankruptcy to restructure and regrow. We have countries, like Japan, having a growth deficit. Should they consider their own bankruptcy (i.e. the monetizing of substantial amounts of Japanese debt). Summary: We appear to be in a different economy and long ago the US recognized that rather than debtors’ prison, it was better to restore economic vitality. Yes, other policy changes (i.e. reduced government spending may be very important) may be vital; but, take the burden of taxes off of individuals and businesses.

There is some controversy about whether it is true that the nominal lending rate should be broadly equal to the nominal GDP growth rate. In fact most studies of developed countries suggest that over the medium and long term this is indeed the case. UBS tried to show that this was not applicable to China and did a study several years ago showing that among developing countries this relationship didn’t hold. Their studies suggested that among developing countries nominal lending rates had on average been around two-thirds on nominal GDP growth rates (although China, at around one-third, was still well below anyone else’s at the time).

There is some controversy about whether it is true that the nominal lending rate should be broadly equal to the nominal GDP growth rate. In fact most studies of developed countries suggest that over the medium and long term this is indeed the case. UBS tried to show that this was not applicable to China and did a study several years ago showing that among developing countries this relationship didn’t hold. Their studies suggested that among developing countries nominal lending rates had on average been around two-thirds on nominal GDP growth rates (although China, at around one-third, was still well below anyone else’s at the time).



note (BB): interesting to think about the above re: the latest changes to European ECB rates with no growth in Europe.



What does a “good” Chinese adjustment look like? | Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS

Outside the Box - What does a "good" Chinese adjustment look like? - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

(from Maudlin newsletter, 9.3.2014)



...I contend that Xi and Li are the most radical leaders of the Chinese nation since Deng Xiaoping, with the emphasis being on Xi. He is shaking up the current power structure by going after some of the entrenched leaders for corruption. He has earned rebukes from a former president for his actions in op-eds in the Financial Times. This is extraordinary pushback and clearly shows that what is happening is beyond the normal regime-change shakeups we have seen in China.



for more, see:  http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/09/what-does-a-good-chinese-adjustment-look-like/

Why Chef Blumenthal Shunned New York and Will Open in Melbourne - Bloomberg

Why Chef Blumenthal Shunned New York and Will Open in Melbourne - Bloomberg



“We looked at New York really heavily,” he said yesterday in an interview. “We wanted to open there. I’ve got some good chef mates in the business in New York and they all said the same thing: If you can’t be union-free, don’t touch it.

from "Thoughts from the Frontline" - Maudlin (Sept. 1, 2014)

As Maudlin writes in his letter
to readers of “Thoughts from the Front Line” of Sept. 1, 2014

"…

This article from this week’s
Economist frames the story:

Over the past
few decades it has become clear that innovation – more than inputs of capital
and labour – is what drives a modern economy. In the developed world, the
application of technological know-how and scientific discoveries by companies,
institutions and government establishments accounts for over half of all
economic growth. Because of its seminal influence on wealth-creation in general
and employment in particular, the manner in which innovation functions –
especially, the way it comes and goes in Darwinian bursts of activity – has
emerged as a vital branch of scholarship.

What
researchers have learned is that waves of industrial activity, first identified
by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff in 1925, have a character all of
their own. Typically, a long upswing in a cycle starts when a new set of
technologies begins to emerge – eg, steam, rail and steel in the mid-19th
century; electricity, chemicals and the internal-combustion engine in the early
20th century. This upsurge in innovation stimulates investment and invigorates
the economy, as successful participants enjoy fat profits, set standards, kill
off weaker rivals and establish themselves as the dominant suppliers.

Over the
years, the boom peters out, as the technologies mature and returns to investors
slide. After a period of slower growth comes the inevitable decline. This is
followed eventually by a wave of fresh innovation, which destroys the old way
of doing things and creates conditions for a fresh upswing – a process Joseph
Schumpeter, an Austrian economist, labeled “creative destruction”.

Back in the
late 1990s, Babbage noticed that the waves of innovation had begun to speed up
(see “Catch the wave”, February 18th 1999). The industrial waves Kondratieff
observed in the 1920s came every 50-60 years or so. By the late 1990s, fresh
ones were arriving twice as often. Fifteen years on, their frequency appears to
have doubled yet again. Waves of new innovations now seem to be rolling in
every 10 to 15 years.

I think those waves are going to
come at us even faster in the next 20 years, resulting in what I call the Age of Transformation. Literally, our
lives will be transformed, and at an ever-increasing pace of change. The Gartner Group has developed a cool
paradigm that they call the “hype cycle.” They basically see every technology
through the lens of five different phases in this hype cycle: the innovation trigger, the peak of inflated
expectations, the trough of disillusionment, the slope of enlightenment, and
the plateau of productivity.

For the past 20 years, Gartner has produced an annual update
of various hype cycles that provide
snapshots of the progress certain technologies have made during the previous
year, where on the innovation cycle they currently reside, and how long they
will take to reach maturity (if ever). This year’s collection (published on
August 11) assesses the prospects of some 2,000 technologies, grouped into 119
aggregated areas of interest.

The chart below is the most
recent hype cycle, published by the Gartner Group last month. See if you can
find a few new technologies that you didn’t know even existed.

It would be nice if we could just
sit back and let growth happen. But as it turns out, our government seems to be
doing its best to retard growth. The bureaucracy of government has become what
Newt Gingrich calls “the prison guards of the past.”

In field after field, regulators
feel the necessity to control the spread of technology in ways that are
consistent with the past they seem to want to perpetuate. Neither Newt nor I are
against reasonable regulation (it is a requirement for civilization); but
regulation run amok kills growth and jobs, and in the case of one federal
regulatory body, it is killing people. (Warning: this hits one of my personal
hot buttons.)

This week I was confronted with a
single FDA bureaucrat slowing down a new medical technology by what may be five
months. Doesn’t sound like much time, does it? Except that this is a technology
that will literally save millions of lives per year. Not improve life,
understand: save lives. As in life or death. (Given the provision that the
technology must be proven to work as we expect it to.) Rather than focusing on
what we can do to move this crucial innovation along as fast as possible, the
regulator is forcing this company to spoon feed him information that has
already been provided in multiple forms. Because he evidently didn’t have the
time to read the massive amounts of information provided, he simply came up
with a bogus reason to excuse his inaction and delay further progress. The fact
that the lives of fathers and mothers and daughters and sons and spouses and
friends will be lost evidently doesn’t bother him.

I wish I could say it was just
this one instance, but we all know that this sort of thing happens many dozens
of times a year. The entire process of drug approval is broken. It is rigged to
benefit Big Pharma and largely prevents small startups from succeeding by
dramatically increasing costs beyond what is necessary.

If I could wave a magic wand and
change just one thing in our government, it would be to replace the FDA. Not reform it – I don’t want to tinker at the
margins. We need an FDA for the 21st century. I’m not advocating some wild west
scenario either – of course we need a regulatory process for the medical field,
but not one that is killing what should be the leading new technology in the
United States, not to mention delaying lifesaving and life-enhancing
technologies that are so needed. The majority of biotechnological research is
done in the US; but under the current regulatory regime, it is increasingly
likely that the early benefits will not be enjoyed by us, and that jobs that
should be created here will be shipped offshore.

Energy should not be the leading
job producer in the US – that should be new health and wellness technologies. I
am watching some of the most promising new technology companies involved in
extending life and healing bodies go shopping for venues outside of the US
because the regulatory process is so onerous and time-consuming that the
scientists literally don’t feel they can wade through it and don’t want to
wait.

By the time they can get a
process or drug approved, they are already three iterations beyond the original
process for which their applications were filed. The field is literally moving
that fast. We are going to be shipping jobs – high-paying, rewarding jobs –
overseas, along with the new technologies. Dear gods, Japan and other
forward-thinking countries are way ahead of us in the regulatory process. This
is just wrong on so many levels.

Much of the US regulatory process
is actually a fence-building program to protect the current workers or
companies in a field. To use a rather odd example, why do some states feel that
a nail technician needs to have a license that requires a 750-hour training
program (at considerable cost) to learn something that every teenage girl knows
how to do by the time she is 13 or 14? Seriously, do you need 750 hours of
training (that you have to pay for) in order to be able to do a manicure for
which you get paid 20 or 30 dollars?

As I probably don’t have many
manicurists among my readers, I have hopefully not offended too many of you.
But what if I started talking about your profession? Just saying! Many regulatory regimes are simply barriers
to entry for new competition. Current participants basically capture the bureaucracy
they deal with in order to ensure their own positions…

…The original point I was trying
to make is that the main driver of growth is not monetary policy,
notwithstanding the current fetish for dissecting every utterance of the
Federal Reserve. More important is US fiscal policy. Even more important is US
regulatory policy. I think we have to mention our educational system (which is showing signs of being increasingly
broken and inadequate for the 21st century) somewhere around here. But it’s
crucial that the natural innovative drive that is inherent not just in US
entrepreneurs but everywhere in the world is nurtured and encouraged.

That
is not to say that monetary policy
is not important. Get it wrong and we all lose. We all become poorer for the
impediments to growth misguided monetary policy can create. Burdening a country
with too much debt and crowding
out productive investments in the process is likewise destructive….