Wednesday, June 26, 2024

What would it take to turn Florida blue? - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

What would it take to turn Florida blue? - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Florida!!!

Let’s do some math: Florida Democrats currently trail Republicans in voter registrations by 940,000 voters.

Taylor Swift, who’s advocated for Dems — including President Biden— in the past, will be performing at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami for three nights in the lead-up to the election: Oct. 18, 19 and 20. The capacity for that venue is 65,326. Triple that and you’re nearly at 200,000. Sure, plenty of people in the audience will already be registered to vote or too young to cast a ballot. But a good number of them will be newly-minted adults, having turned 18 over the summer. Could she get them to sign up? All it would take is for her (and Travis Kelce, ideally) to say something like, “everyone in the audience, text five of your friends to vote.” And, boom! She’s over a million.

There’s strength in numbers. Photographer: Julien De Rosa/AFP

And that’s not even factoring in the power of social media. Throughout the years, the singer has issued multiple pleas online to urge her followers to do their civic duty. On National Voter Registration Day last year, her Instagram post helped drive a 72% increase in 18-year-olds registering compared to 2019. A push like that in Miami could turn the state blue. Or lavender haze, at the very least.

If that sounds like a long-shot to you, you’re not alone: “Few pundits consider Florida a true swing state,” Mary Ellen Klas writes (free read). “But after two years of Governor Ron DeSantis pushing his extremist agenda, including one of the toughest abortion bans in the country, and policies curtailing the teaching of Black history and gender identity, there’s a case to be made that Florida voters have had enough of the Republican Party’s obsession with culture wars.”

Public opinion polls speak to that fatigue. In a recent Fox News poll, 69% of respondents supported the right to an abortion up until fetal viability — “a resounding rejection of the six-week ban rammed into law by DeSantis,” Mary Ellen argues. No wonder the governor has one of the highest disapproval ratings of any state leader. Then there’s his “wish list” of extreme MAGA policies that landed in the legislative trash can: Bills that would prevent the removal of Confederate monuments, ban Pride flags and allow 18-year-olds to acquire AR-15s have been completely abandoned by Florida lawmakers.

Even so, state Republicans — and Donald Trump — think they have the November election in the bag. Democrats, seeing the frustration bubbling up among Sunshine State voters, hope to make the opposing party eat its words. By fielding candidates for all 140 legislative seats and 28 congressional races on the ballot this year, the left has done something no party in the state has accomplished in nearly half a century. 

“We’re going to make Republicans spend money defending their dangerous and unpopular policies and make sure that Democrats, independents and even moderate Republicans know they have another option,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried recently said. If they manage to pull off the impossible, it’d send shockwaves through the nation. And if they could get Taylor’s help… who knows! She certainly has a history of making history

Saturday, June 8, 2024

Pippa M. - race between inflation and innovation - Geopolitical Breakdown - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Geopolitical Breakdown - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

...Pippa went on about how this affects the economy.

“I think we’re in a massive race between inflation and innovation, and part of the reason the Fed did the zero interest rate and the free-money policy, their view was if we throw enough cash at it, the innovators will get going and they will build the next Apple and the next Microsoft, and that will begin to pull the economy into the future. And I remember being very skeptical about that at the time because I’m a little bit more hardcore on inflation. But I am now looking at it, and I’m not sure it was wrong. And we have had such extraordinary innovation.

“Interestingly, once you start getting into strategic-security conflict, then the defense community becomes a provider of dollars. And I’ve gone so far as to say that defense spending is the new quantitative easing because you can spend an unlimited amount of money. Nobody ever asks any questions. If you tried to do it through the Fed, everyone would be having a heart attack. But if it comes through this strategic-security fiscal angle, nobody can complain, especially because the risk of conflict is real and it’s a clear and present danger.

“One reason you see the private equity firms aligning with the defense community is because that’s where the dollars are, and it is where the innovation occurs. War and conflict spur innovation. No question about it.

“So the question is, can we get through this period without actually having the war, or can we remain in the invisible war that’s very real? Can we get to a resolution without the public really registering what the real dangers are? And I think the chances are yes, because everybody does want to cut a deal on Ukraine, which implies also a deal over Gaza, Israel, because Russia and China and Iran would back off supporting Hamas and the Houthis if there was an agreement on Ukraine—or rather, China and Russia would stop giving them so much support if there’s an agreement on Ukraine…

“And if we get that—and here’s maybe my key takeaway from today, because I’ve given you a lot of dark stuff about the realities of geopolitics, so it makes everybody nervous and scared. But here’s the thing: A peace dividend is rare and valuable. How many of us missed the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Soviet Union, and the extraordinary peace dividend that ensued? I would say most people did not anticipate that that was going to happen.

“This is another shot at that, and I would say in addition to whatever time you spend worrying about the downside, I want you to really think about, what is your strategy for the day that we get the headline in the Washington Post, ‘There’s a deal on Ukraine?’

“Because that is the day the peace dividend will begin again, and markets will go up and all this innovation will go crazy, and suddenly inflation will be an issue again. And there’ll be a question about how to solve that. But I would bet that in the race between inflation and innovation, in a peace dividend, innovation wins. So I just want to leave you with, I think there’s a real upside that most of the market isn’t even thinking possible.”

That was a curveball I didn’t expect, but an important one. We are often quick to assume the worst, but good outcomes are possible. The Cold War had one. While the various smaller conflicts brought tremendous pain and suffering, we avoided nuclear war.

It’s hard to imagine all today’s conflicts working out so peacefully. Yet it’s possible, and Pippa is right to say we should consider that scenario in our investment planning.

Thursday, June 6, 2024

A first ride in Zoox’s robotaxi - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

A first ride in Zoox’s robotaxi - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Bloomberg

Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg’s newsletter on the future of the auto world.

A Drama-Free Driverless Ride

The Zoox robotaxi has no steering wheel, no pedals and four inward-facing seats. Last week, I was the first journalist to hitch a ride in one of the vehicles in their eventual launch market: Las Vegas.

It’s an opportune time to be getting one’s arms around the state of robotaxis. Elon Musk is staking Tesla’s future on the concept and has set a date to unveil a vehicle in August. But after years of hype about fully autonomous vehicles transforming transportation, it remains to be seen whether the technology is ready, and how quickly companies like Zoox will be able to scale it with thousands of cars on the road.

Zoox’s car whisked me through a 5-mile loop of public roads not far from the strip across mixed, multi-lane traffic and at speeds of up to 45 miles per hour. The journey went much like any other ride-hail experience: Pull up the app on your smartphone, set the destination and confirm. Hop in, buckle up and press “Start” on one of the small control panels by each of the passenger seats. There’s air conditioning — a must in Sin City’s 100F (38C) desert heat — and you can play music. Beyond that, the interior is pretty bare bones.

I was escorted on the ride by Zoox's co-founder and chief technology officer Jesse Levinson, who wanted to demonstrate to me that Zoox has been making quiet progress since Amazon acquired the company four years ago. Its long-held objective has been to operate an autonomous ride-hailing service — think Uber or Lyft, without human drivers — using purpose-built robotaxi the company plans to own and operate itself: no retrofitted consumer cars, and no partnerships.

Zoox’s electric robotaxi. Source: Zoox

Zoox’s vehicle was familiar to me. I visited the company’s California headquarters in December 2020 and was the first to get a look at the car’s design and specifications. But this recent trip was my first time going for a ride in a non-controlled environment (Zoox already operates a limited 1-mile route between two of its facilities in Foster City, California.)

The Las Vegas deployment will render Zoox the first company in the US to operate a purpose-built robotaxi on public roads and at relatively high speeds. Over the years I’ve covered Zoox and known Levinson and its CEO, Aicha Evans, they’ve had this very clear end goal. But unlike Alphabet’s Waymo or General Motors’ Cruise, Zoox resisted the urge to shout about commercializing its technology or offer set timelines for a commercial service. In another big contrast, Zoox decided against testing the business model or giving the public a taste of the service in retrofitted cars that do have both a steering wheel and pedals.

During my journey, Zoox’s vehicle was able to conduct several unprotected right turns, where it had to yield the right-of-way to oncoming traffic and pedestrians before turning. Zoox’s car managed to discern that it was safe to turn right at a red light when there was no oncoming traffic. However, the vehicle didn’t attempt any left turns — protected or otherwise — during the journey. When I asked Levison about this, he said it was just the layout of the route and insisted that the vehicle is able to handle them.

In the course of our trip, we experienced cars cutting in front of us, as well as construction along the median and lane closures. Out an abundance of caution, Zoox wouldn’t let us set out on our journey until a busted light signal was fixed.

I’d liken the experience to being in an airport shuttle, or even on a monorail, with the biggest difference being that the Zoox can traverse several lanes of traffic and will change lanes based on the cars around it. I’ve taken a lot of Waymo autonomous ride-hail trips, and I’ve also tested the driver-assistance system that Tesla markets as Full Self-Driving in my Model Y.

My experience of this one, 5-mile ride was that Zoox’s vehicle drives more smoothly. It makes quicker decisions and behaves much more like a typical human driver. One big psychological difference to get over is that you can’t see out of the front or back windows, by design. Nor are there any screens showing a digital visualization of what the cars sees — something that both Waymo and Tesla do offer.

Zoox has an elaborate sensor suite on each corner of its car, comprising lidar, radar and cameras. The company designed a cheaper way to build its robotaxi and a simple assembly line in California. Most of the components, including drive units, arrive preassembled by suppliers. That’s an economic trade-off for Zoox, because while the per-unit cost of each robotaxi is high, its suppliers will be capable of building thousands of units per year. If those robotaxis can run for significant portions of the day and charge fares similar to what current ride-sharing apps do, then the company will quickly be able to cover its costs, and the business model will prove successful.

Levinson argues that a purpose-built robotaxi, operated by its maker, is the safest way for the technology to be deployed in the real world. He believes it would take any company a minimum of five years to pull this off.

“It takes a long time to design and build one of these things, and then to make sure that it’s safe,” Levinson told me during the ride. “Not only does nobody else have one of these out on the roads, we don’t know of anybody that’s even working on it right now. Of course, somebody could be, in secret.”

In many ways, Waymo and Cruise seemed to pull ahead of Zoox the last few years. The former two deployed fleets of test cars and converted them into vehicles for revenue-generating ride-hailing services. Cruise’s mishandling of an incident in which one of its cars struck and dragged a pedestrian derailed its business, and safety regulators have subjected all three of the players to closer scrutiny.

The triumvirate could get some company soon in the form of Tesla, which now appears to share Zoox's view that pursuing purpose-built robotaxis is the way to go. Musk is slated to unveil the company’s car on Aug. 8th.

But there are significant differences between Tesla’s approach to developing self-driving capability from the others. Musk, for instance, has espoused a camera-only system for detecting surroundings, whereas Zoox believes autonomous driving is only achievable with a multi-sensor suite of lidar, radar and other inputs for a richer and more robust 360-degree view around the car.

Zoox will soon be able to test its robotaxi in San Francisco, alongside the large fleet of retrofitted test cars it already has in the city. Other test-fleet locations are planned, including Austin and Miami, but the company will continue to be deliberately slow and steady in how it expands.

“I’ve really stayed away from the race and, you know, calling who has pole position and who doesn’t,” Evans told me at the company’s Vegas facility. “What I will tell you is that Zoox has even more conviction in the path that it’s chosen."

— By Ed Ludlow

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

☕ Prevent a KRACK attack - Another day, another record – hopefully you’re on board! - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

☕ Another day, another record – hopefully you’re on board! - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

5 – Prevent a KRACK attack 

Most people have no idea how vulnerable they are. 

 

I didn’t. 

 

You see, I got clobbered in the Tokyo airport a while back via a KRACK attack launched over Narita’s wireless network.  

 

A KRACK attack, in case you haven’t heard the term, happens when a bad actor manipulates a WiFi’s protected access via encryption keys used to establish a secure connection that allows ‘em to filch data when in close enough proximity. 

 

Anyway, I had quite the mess to clean up just 10 hours later when we landed in the US. 

 

I saw messages from my friends asking about the Nigerian princes who were apparently holding me hostage, heard from friends who’d been fished by crypto clowns promising to invest for ‘em and more. Even my bank wanted to check in! 

 

There are a couple of simple things you can do to help make your information safer when you’re out and about. 

 

  1. Start by turning off your WiFi in public areas, especially if you’re not connecting for any reason. 
  2. Turn off “auto-connect” and file-sharing, both of which can often be conveniently turned on by helpful programmers with each update. And do NOT connect to sensitive stuff like your bank account or key corporate systems if you can help it. 
  3. And while you’re at it, keep your Bluetooth off, too. This helps prevent BlueBorne attacks which are designed to allow the bad guys to take control of your devices by exploiting weaknesses in Bluetooth (which at this point is pretty dang dated). 

Sunday, June 2, 2024

On My Radar - May 31, 2024: Gundlach's Investment Thesis - CMG

On My Radar: Gundlach's Investment Thesis - CMG

On My Radar: 


  • Macro Masters Insights - Gundlach's Entire Investment Thesis
  • S&P 500 and Oil
  • The Hindenburg Omen
  • Random Tweets
  • Personal Note: New York and Dallas
  • Trade Signals: May 29, 2024


Macro Masters Insights – Gundlach’s Entire Investment Thesis


“We are in the last mile of this debt fueled situation.”

-Jeffrey Gundlach



...In short, Gundlach sees a slowdown—a recession nearing—and believes the Fed will respond aggressively. Another round of inflation will follow, and it will be higher for longer. He believes we are in a debt trap, and some form of government yield curve control is probable.

  • ...I think Jay Powell even said so in a kind of off-the-cuff in one of his press conferences (a couple of Fed meetings ago), that the Fed needs to reduce the Fed balance sheet so that they can get it back up again in the next recession.
  • This indicates to me, sadly, that the response to the next economic downturn will be more money printing and inflationary policies.

...
  • ...the interest expense problem is getting very real.
  • We have trillions and trillions of dollars of treasury bonds that are maturing in this this calendar year in the next two calendar years or ~ $17 trillion. And many of them have coupons of 50 basis points or 25 basis points on 10-year treasuries. And these are coming due and if the debt is refinanced where interest rates are today, the interest expense is going to start turning into one of the largest budget items.
  • It has already surpassed the official military spending and higher for longer means that these maturing bonds are going to be priced at 400 basis points or 300 basis points or 200 basis points higher than what’s rolling off.

  • ...So they’re going to run out of money in the 2020s… if there’s a recession, which I certainly believe there will be by 2030 and the Medicaid Medicare trustees say they’re out of money in 2030. No recession.
  • So out of money like before the next presidential election after this one.


What are we going to do? I’ve got a sort of radical idea, and I’m not predicting this, but it’s something that I’ve started to implement.



  • So, I’ve got this crazy idea that I want to buy only the lowest coupon treasuries, zeros if possible. Because if I have a very low coupon treasury, I don’t have to worry about being restructured. I worry that the federal government might be forced to restructure the Treasury debt. People say that’s impossible… That it is a contract… It’s illegal.


...So, the fact that something is viewed as a contract doesn’t mean it won’t happen because it’s been happening with regularity over the last several years, so what if, and I’m not predicting this… What if the Treasury says, hey, we’ve got all these bonds out there, and some of them are quite old and some are paying 4%, 5%, 6%?


  • They come out and say, “We’re in a jam.”
  • What if the Fed then decides that they are going to cap the yield on all Treasury’s at 1%?
  • If you own a 6% coupon, 20-year bond, and it gets reset down to 1%, I’m not predicting it’ll happen, but it might… If it does, you’ll lose at least 50% of your value.
  • People haven’t figured this out. This is a real risk.

  • ... the Fed may move to potentially running negative interest rates and causing more inflation.
  • That’s why I think the dollar will go down in the next recession, not up.