Friday, January 11, 2019
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Why January 10 Could Spark (Another) Crisis in Venezuela | Americas Quarterly
Why January 10 Could Spark (Another) Crisis in Venezuela | Americas Quarterly
.... On Jan. 4, the Lima Group announced they would only recognize the country’s National Assembly as a legitimately elected body and called for the OAS to follow suit.
.... On Jan. 4, the Lima Group announced they would only recognize the country’s National Assembly as a legitimately elected body and called for the OAS to follow suit.
“On Jan. 10, the clock starts ticking on a full-fledged accountability crisis in Venezuela,” said Luisa Palacios, the head of Emerging Markets research at Medley Global Advisors.
The group includes the governments of Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay and Peru – but not Mexico. A president that much of the region considers illegitimate could mean that Venezuelans representing the Maduro government won’t be able to enter many countries. Further, financial dealings could be thwarted, accounts in foreign soil frozen, and weapons cooperation suspended. ...
...in 2019 with oil production falling below 1 million barrels a day.
What Venezuela’s severe economic crisis and hyperinflation mean is that Maduro’s capacity to distribute rents is significantly declining and the value of those rents is evaporating. ...
... I have always thought that regime change in Venezuela might be a two-stage process with some kind of political change within chavismo before there is a transition towards an opposition government.
Wednesday, January 9, 2019
Tuesday, January 8, 2019
Monday, January 7, 2019
Bridgewater Posts a Stellar 2018 | Institutional Investor
Bridgewater Posts a Stellar 2018 | Institutional Investor
...The firm’s flagship Pure Alpha strategy gained 14.6 percent net of fees in 2018, the person said. That compares with a loss of 6.7 percent in data tracker HFR’s HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index and a loss of 4.4 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, including dividends reinvested. The Pure Alpha strategy has produced an annualized return of 12 percent since its inception in December 1991, according to the person. Bridgewater declined to comment.
...The firm’s flagship Pure Alpha strategy gained 14.6 percent net of fees in 2018, the person said. That compares with a loss of 6.7 percent in data tracker HFR’s HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index and a loss of 4.4 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, including dividends reinvested. The Pure Alpha strategy has produced an annualized return of 12 percent since its inception in December 1991, according to the person. Bridgewater declined to comment.
Sunday, January 6, 2019
China's Dollar Debt Is Surging, and That Spells Trouble - Bloomberg
China's Dollar Debt Is Surging, and That Spells Trouble - Bloomberg
Bulls have long argued that China’s financial risks are contained because of the country’s low levels of external debt and large foreign-exchange reserves. That has changed. China’s external debt has been increasing by an average of $70 billion per quarter since the beginning of 2017. If it keeps rising, Beijing will have the unpalatable choice of burning through its reserves or letting the yuan fall, both of which would carry additional risks.
China and the world need to think clearly about this growing dollar debt dependence. Any cessation of funding could have severe and unforeseen consequences.
Friday, January 4, 2019
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