Sunday, July 5, 2020

Covid-Like Virus Was Sent to Wuhan in 2013, Sunday Times Says - Bloomberg

Covid-Like Virus Was Sent to Wuhan in 2013, Sunday Times Says - Bloomberg





Covid-Like Virus Was
Sent to Wuhan in 2013, Sunday Times Says
By Thomas Seal
July 5, 2020, 4:32 PM GMT+1

The P4 laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in
Wuhan in China's central Hubei province on April 17.

Virus samples sent to the Wuhan Institute of Virology seven
years ago closely resemble Covid-19, according to a report in the Sunday Times
that highlights unanswered questions about the origins of the global pandemic.

Scientists in 2013
sent frozen samples to the Wuhan lab from a bat-infested former copper mine in
southwest China after six men who had
been clearing out bat feces there contracted a severe pneumonia
, the
newspaper said.

Three of them died and the most likely cause was a
coronavirus transmitted from a bat,
the Sunday Times reported, citing a
medic whose supervisor worked in the emergency department that treated the men.
The same mine in Yunnan province was subsequently studied by Shi Zhengli, an
expert in SARS-like coronaviruses of bat origins at the Wuhan Institute of
Virology.

Shi, nicknamed “bat
woman”
for her expeditions in bat caves, described Covid-19 in a February
2020 paper, saying it was 96.2% similar to a coronavirus sample named
RaTG13 obtained in Yunnan in 2013. The Sunday Times said RaTG13 is “almost
certainly” the virus that was found in the abandoned mine.

China’s ‘Bat Woman’ Warns Coronavirus Is Just Tip of the
Iceberg

The differences between the samples may still represent
decades’ worth of evolutionary distance
, according to dissenting scientists
cited in the article. The Sunday Times said the Wuhan lab did not respond to
its questions.

In May, the director of the Wuhan Institute of Virology said
there was no live copy of the RaTG13 virus in the lab, so it would have been impossible
for it to leak. There is no evidence the lab was the source of the global
outbreak that began in Wuhan. But U.S. President Donald Trump claimed in May
he’d seen proof of the theory, contradicting intelligence services.

El Erian _ Covid-19: Sunny Third-Quarter Economic Outlook Turns Cloudier - Bloomberg

Covid-19: Sunny Third-Quarter Economic Outlook Turns Cloudier - Bloomberg





Sunny Third-Quarter Economic Outlook Turns Cloudier
Confidence is waning in economic improvement as the Covid-19
situation worsens in several states.

By Mohamed A. El-Erian
Storm clouds are rolling in.
Storm clouds are rolling in. Photographer: Guillaume
Souvant/AFP/Getty Images
Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is
the chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco, where he
served as CEO and co-CIO. He is president-elect of Queens' College, Cambridge,
senior adviser at Gramercy and professor of practice at Wharton. His books
include "The Only Game in Town" and "When Markets Collide."
Read more opinion
Follow @elerianm on Twitter

A few weeks ago, the expectation was that the onset of the
third quarter would mark the close of a highly damaging and uncertain second
quarter for the U.S. economy and, importantly, herald a sharp and durable
reversal. Instead, with health concerns forcing a growing number of states to
either stop or reverse their reopenings, and with some businesses and
households withdrawing from active economic re-engagements, a cloud is now
forming over the third quarter, threatening the depth and breadth of the
economic recovery.

With an initial phase of seemingly healthy reopenings, and
with government relief measures in full force, high-frequency indicators of
economic well-being (household confidence, new jobs and retail sales) started
improving in May or deteriorated at a slower rate (jobless claims). Such absolute
and relative improvements were countering what was shaping up to be a brutal
set of economic data for the second quarter as a whole, including the largest
contraction in gross domestic product on record. But with a continuing uptick
in economic data that repeatedly beat consensus expectations, the thinking was
the hit to this year’s GDP could be contained to 5% to 8%, with the prospects
of recovering the entire loss of output in 2021.

Since then, however, confidence in improving high-frequency
data has been dented by indications that the “R-naught” of Covid-19 — the
average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person —
has increased above 1 once again in a majority of states. Even though
hospitalizations and deaths have not surged at the same rate as the sharp
increase in positive cases because of the much lower average age of the newly
infected, there is little confidence that this will continue given the material
risk of younger people, especially those who are asymptomatic, turning into
super-spreaders — a concern accentuated by evidence that this group has shown
little inclination to modify its behavior yet. 
Policy makers are reacting, including either halting or reversing
economic reopenings in about 40 states, according to Goldman Sachs, but many
health experts view the cumulative response by local, state and federal
officials as too incremental and overly hesitant.

Consistent with these developments, the highest-frequency
indicators of  household economic
activity, such as mobility and restaurant bookings, have already flattened or
started to head back down in a growing number of states. Some businesses, such
as Apple, have decided to reclose stores in certain places. And this process
has been accelerated in recent days with some states and cities closing bars
and barring in-restaurant dining.

Over the next few weeks, this will lead economists and Wall
Street analysts to revise down growth projections for the third quarter and to
push out the process of recovery. Both will be less consistent with a sharp and
lasting V-shaped recovery and more likely will align with my previous
characterization of a square-root-shaped recovery. And with certain relief
measures scheduled to sunset soon, including the Paycheck Protection Program
and the supplementary unemployment benefits, the U.S. economy would be exposed
to a bigger risk of short-term problems becoming structurally embedded.
This would include a significantly larger
number of corporate bankruptcies and greater risk of long-term unemployment in
which jobless workers run a high risk of becoming unemployable.

Absent any policy and behavioral changes, the overall impact
of these measures would most likely be an overall GDP contraction for 2020
in the 8% to 12% range,
assuming no second round of infections in improving
states such as New York. Moreover, the recovery of lost output would not be
completed in 2021. And the uncertainty surrounding these predictions would
notably increase, with the balance of risk tilted to the downside.

Such a diminished outlook would worsen the
already-concerning inequality trifecta of income, wealth and opportunity
at a time of greater recognition and heightened sensitivity to long-standing
social injustices. It would also undermine the type of synchronized global
recovery
in which external demand reinforces domestic economic
improvements. It would increase the likelihood of more protectionism and
faster deglobalization
. And it would risk pulling down longer-term
economic growth and prosperity
.

The answer is not to roll back health measures aimed at
regaining control of what is a worrisome acceleration of infections. Rather, it
is to ensure changes in behavior and
policy
that allow for healthier and sustainable economic reopenings
during this tricky period of living with Covid-19.

A necessary component of the answer is to combine policy
relief measures with greater emphasis on steps to reduce the risk of infection
and deal better with the ill, as well as to counter more quickly a post-virus
world of low productivity and high
household insecurity
. But it is imperative the private sector joins in —
whether through individuals and companies better adopting health safeguards or
by working harder to protect the most vulnerable segments of the population.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the
editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Mohamed A. El-Erian at melerian@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Daniel Niemi at dniemi1@bloomberg.net

How the World Missed Covid-19’s Silent Spread - The New York Times

How the World Missed Covid-19’s Silent Spread - The New York Times



...Virologists had discovered a subtle genetic mutation in the infections of two patients from the Munich cluster. They had crossed paths for the briefest of moments, one passing a saltshaker to the other in the company cafeteria, when neither had symptoms. Their shared mutation made it clear that one had infected the other.



...‘If this is true, we’re in trouble.’”



... “Seriously people — STOP BUYING MASKS!” Surgeon General Jerome M. Adams tweeted on Feb. 29.




Thursday, July 2, 2020

How a Chinese Firm Jumped to the Front of the Virus Vaccine Race - Bloomberg

How a Chinese Firm Jumped to the Front of the Virus Vaccine Race - Bloomberg





How a Chinese Firm Jumped to the Front of the Virus Vaccine
Race
Bloomberg News
July 1, 2020, 10:24 PM GMT+1 Updated on July 2, 2020, 9:02
AM GMT+1

When a group of Chinese
scientists
gathered over barbecue and beer in a Toronto backyard a decade ago, talk drifted to their homeland’s
vaccines, which had long lagged the developed world on quality and safety. Four
of them decided to act.

They left top positions at global pharmaceutical
companies in Canada to set up a biotechnology firm half a world away in
Tianjin, China
, hoping to produce vaccines on par with Western countries.
Now, that company, CanSino Biologics Inc., is vaulting into the global
spotlight as connections on both sides of the Pacific make it one of the
front-runners in the race for a coronavirus vaccine.

CanSino’s Chinese-born chief executive officer, Yu Xuefeng,
formerly a senior executive at drugmaker Sanofi’s Canadian vaccine operations,
has maintained relationships in Canada and China even as geopolitical
disagreements polarize both countries. Yu has boosted his firm’s scientific prowess
by tying up with the Canadian
government’s largest research organization
. At home, he’s worked with a
prominent Chinese military scientist,
first on an Ebola vaccine and now on CanSino’s experimental coronavirus shot.

In May, CanSino became the first globally to publish a full
scientific study
on its early human trials, an important step because it
allows researchers worldwide to assess a vaccine’s potential.

The company -- which is yet to generate revenue and logged a
$22 million loss last year -- has so far kept up with, and occasionally even
outpaced, Western pharmaceutical giants with the speed of its initial
coronavirus vaccine trials. The research is still too nascent to know if the
shot from CanSino, or indeed any company, will provide the magic bullet
countries are seeking to open up while the pandemic rages. But CanSino’s
inroads show China’s young biotechnology industry is becoming a global
contender, and a powerful tool for President Xi Jinping.

CanSino “deserves credit for the speed with which they
pushed the vaccine through pre-clinical studies and human testing,” said Wang
Ruizhe, a pharmaceutical industry analyst at Capital Securities Corp. in
Shanghai. “It tells you something about their ability to mobilize and leverage
the resources that it takes to get all these done. The resources required here
are substantial.”

A spokesperson for the Chinese company, citing media reports
in May, said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is supportive of the
Canadian researchers working on clinical trials for a coronavirus vaccine with
CanSino.

China’s pharmaceutical industry has been dogged by safety
incidents and quality scandals. But in recent years, parts of it have grown
more advanced as hundreds of Chinese scientists trained in the West have come
home.

Called hai gui, or “sea turtles,” these returnees have
capitalized on relationships and expertise gained in countries like the U.S.
and Canada, and created new companies. CanSino’s CEO Yu -- 57, who has a
doctorate from Canada’s McGill University in microbiology and was the head of
vaccine development and production at Sanofi Pasteur in Canada -- belongs to
this new breed of executives.

In the prospectus for CanSino’s 2019 public offering in Hong
Kong, Yu described the difficult choices he and his colleagues made in forging
their new path back home in China.

“Most of our families
stayed in Canada,
and we could only see them a few times a year,” he wrote.
“When you think about your young kids and teenagers growing up without dads,
when you know your wife had to shovel out of 10 inches of deep snow early
morning in -20°C wind chill all by herself – those were the tough moments.”

Both Sides
The name CanSino represents the Chinese characters for
health, hope and promises, while in English it’s a combination of Canada and
China. Besides Yu, other top officials at the firm have Canadian connections.
Chief Scientific Officer Zhu Tao was also a senior scientist at Sanofi Pasteur
in Canada. The company’s success has relied on threading the needle between
both nations.

In February 2014,
about five years after returning to China, Yu licensed a technology from the
National Research Council of Canada called HEK 293 cell lines, which is
required to produce large quantities of a vaccine reliably.
That science
went on to partly underpin CanSino’s viral vector technology.

An advanced way to make a vaccine, a viral vector is a
genetically modified virus that is no longer harmful to humans, but can serve
as a vehicle to carry the genes of another germ to prepare the immune system
for attack. Few Chinese companies had that technology in 2014, when a Chinese
army researcher called Chen Wei began looking for viral vector expertise to
produce a vaccine amid Africa’s Ebola outbreak.

Ebola Vaccine
A major general in China’s People’s Liberation Army, Chen
headed the Institute of Biotechnology at the country’s Academy of Military
Medical Sciences. She went on to work with CanSino to develop an Ebola vaccine
that in 2017 was approved in China for emergency use and national stockpiling.

Chen has star status in China. In a nationalistic movie
called Wolf Warrior II, the character of a scientist who develops a vaccine
against a deadly African virus is believed to be modeled on her. She developed
a therapy used by Chinese health workers during the SARS outbreak of 2003.

Chen is also known for a singular dedication to her work. In
a 2004 interview with state-run CCTV, she said she presented her findings on
the SARS therapy to Beijing’s municipal authorities after dosing her
four-year-old son with it for two months because she was so sure about her
research.

CanSino’s long-running relationship with Chen paid off again
this year. CanSino and her team raced through pre-clinical studies on the
coronavirus vaccine -- called Ad5-nCoV. They secured Beijing’s help on
everything from isolating virus strains to animal testing. Chen and the
institute couldn’t be reached for comment.

Mixed Results
The team started human clinical trials in Wuhan, the Chinese
city where the coronavirus first emerged, on March 16. Massachusetts-based
Moderna Inc., seen as one of the best contenders to produce an American
vaccine, started its tests in the U.S. the same day. Less than a month later,
CanSino began the second phase of wide-scale human trials. On May 22, when it published a study in the
medical journal the Lancet, the results were mixed: The shot appeared to be
safe and generated some immune response, but there were shortcomings.

Viral vector technology can have limitations when some
people already have pre-existing
immunity
to the vector virus used to create the vaccine. This was the case
for the adenovirus -- a genetically-altered cold-causing virus -- which CanSino used for its vaccine.
Many of those with pre-existing adenovirus immunity showed diminished response
to its coronavirus shot in the Lancet study.

‘In the Game’
For upcoming trials in Canada, CanSino has added a booster
shot for some participants to attempt to address the lackluster response from
those with pre-existing immunity to the adenovirus vector, according to a
person with knowledge of its trial design who didn’t want to be named
discussing information that’s not public.

“CanSino is in the game and it’s about where the other
so-called leaders are,” said William Haseltine, a former Harvard University HIV
researcher. “Whether anybody will cross the finish line where we ever can see
safety data that we would like to see is unknown.”

Final-stage trials could yet stymie CanSino’s outsized
ambitions. Its Ebola vaccine was approved on an emergency basis after two
stages of human testing, but the company never completed the final phase as the
epidemic petered out in Africa. CanSino doesn’t generate much revenue because
most of its products, including two late-stage meningitis vaccines, are still
in development.

The company has received some funding from Beijing for the
coronavirus vaccine, although the amount isn’t large, the person familiar with
its trials said.

Phase III
CanSino’s founders’ ties with Canada are once again proving
fortuitous as it looks to conduct Phase III tests on its vaccine. Still, there
could be challenges in conducting the sizable studies required in the final
stages if new coronavirus infections continue to taper in Canada. China has
largely stamped out its outbreak.

Researchers at Dalhousie University’s Canadian Center for
Vaccinology, who are leading the clinical trials, have said they hope to start
Phase III studies of the CanSino shot as early as this fall. Canada’s National
Research Council said if the vaccine candidate is approved by authorities
there, it has the option to produce doses of the vaccine for emergency pandemic
use in Canada. (CanSino is responsible for funding its own trials, Health
Canada, the government’s health agency, said in an email.)

Meanwhile, China’s reputation in Canada -- already damaged
by Beijing’s reaction to the arrest of Huawei Technologies Co.’s chief
financial officer in Vancouver -- has been dealt a further blow by the pandemic
and perceptions China hid the virus initially. That could fuel more scrutiny of
CanSino and its vaccine in Canada.

Other companies are also racing ahead. Moderna is set to
test its vaccine among 30,000 people in the U.S. in July, while an early-stage
trial of a Pfizer Inc. and BioNtech SE shot showed it’s safe and prompted
patients to produce antibodies against the coronavirus. A vaccine co-developed
by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc also started the final stage of
human testing in Brazil in June.

At home, state-run vaccine developer China National Biotec
Group Co. has secured approval from health authorities in the U.A.E. to conduct
Phase III testing for the two shots it developed against the coronavirus.
Beijing-based Sinovac Biotech Ltd. has inked a deal to do final tests in
Brazil, too. The outcome for all of these companies -- and CanSino -- will only
be known once this ultimate stage of scientific studies is complete.

“The viral vector CanSino is using is a relatively safe
approach compared to other techniques but it’s hard to make a call on efficacy
for now,”
said Wang, the Shanghai-based analyst. “There’s no shortage of
histories where promising efforts made it to the last stage of testing only to
see things fall apart.”

— With assistance by Natalie Obiko Pearson, Dong Lyu, and
Yunong Wu


Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Coronavirus: Thousands attend 'farewell' pandemic party in Prague

Coronavirus: Thousands attend 'farewell' pandemic party in Prague

whole business securitizations_ How Are Planet Fitness and Massage Envy Securitizations Doing? - Bloomberg

How Are Planet Fitness and Massage Envy Securitizations Doing? - Bloomberg





How Are Planet Fitness and IHOP Securitizations Doing Now?
Wall Street's structured products for brand-name chains such
as Applebee’s and TGI Friday’s are under unexpected
pressure from Covid-19
.

By Brian Chappatta
June 30, 2020, 11:00 AM GMT+1

Brian Chappatta is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering
debt markets. He previously covered bonds for Bloomberg News. He is also a CFA
charterholder.

It looked like the
perfect feat of Wall Street ingenuity. Then
the coronavirus pandemic
struck.

For the past few years, asset-backed securities known
as “whole business securitizations”
had become a steadily growing presence in the structured-finance market.
Chain restaurants like Dunkin’,
Hooters, TGI Friday’s and Wendy’s were among the first to take up bankers on
this process, which involves
companies selling almost all revenue-generating assets into bankruptcy-remote,
special-purpose entities
in exchange for investment-grade credit ratings
and much cheaper financing.
More recently, other franchise-focused
enterprises like Planet Fitness Inc. and Massage Envy LLC followed.

There’s a lot to like about these securities for
fixed-income investors. They usually offer higher
yields
than comparably rated corporate bonds, for one. They’re backed by
cash flow
from hundreds, if not thousands, of individual locations across
the country that each have unique demand
dynamics
and would likely keep operating and sending money to investors
even if the parent company filed for bankruptcy.

You might be able to guess where the story goes from here.
Yes, some securitizations are doing fine, like Domino’s Pizza Inc., whose stock
price reached a record this month. And Driven Brands, which has more than 3,200
automotive services shops across 49 U.S. states and all Canadian provinces,
successfully priced $175 million of debt on Friday in the first such deal since
March. But a handful of the bonds are showing signs of cracking under pressure
from Covid-19. Specifically, restaurants that are overwhelmingly dine-in or
concentrated in malls, as well as the aforementioned Planet Fitness and Massage
Envy.

Consider Dine Brands Global Inc., the parent of the Applebee’s and IHOP brands. Obviously,
it’s hardly a boom time for going out for breakfast. Its whole-business
securitization from 2019, rated triple-B by S&P Global Ratings, traded at
more than 100 cents on the dollar on March 11, then tumbled to about 77 cents
in April, Trace data show. While trading in this kind of debt is relatively
sparse, it seems to have rebounded to 87 cents, equivalent to a yield of
about 8%
. The average junk bond yields 6.77%, according to a Bloomberg
Barclays index.

S&P said in a report last week that it could lower the
transaction’s ratings within the next three months, given the sharp drop in
dine-in revenue. In a sign of how serious this is for Dine Brands, it’s waiving
its right to a management fee at least through the beginning of September and
has redirected the residual to pre-fund debt service, S&P said. Dine
Brands also voluntarily doubled the interest reserve to $32.8 million
from $16.4 million.

At least in S&P’s view, the situation is even worse for TGI Friday’s, which had already cut
total restaurants to 796 in March from 894 three years earlier. In mid-May, the
rating agency downgraded the chain’s 2017 notes to B+, four steps below
investment grade, and said there’s a 50-50 chance it would drop it even
further. “Though the pandemic has placed significant stress on the restaurant
industry broadly, we believe TGIF will face near-term revenue stress that is
particularly severe,” the S&P analysts wrote. They found the
securitization can withstand a 43% decline in collections before experiencing
an interest shortfall
in the next several months. That’s a high hurdle, to
be sure, but hardly impossible.

Focus Brands, the
parent of popular mall chains like Auntie Anne’s, Cinnabon and Jamba, is also
having a rough time. Its whole-business securitization from 2017 traded at
about 93 cents on the dollar last week, implying a yield of 12% (its
expected maturity is April 2021). Kroll Bond Rating Agency has said it might downgrade
the transaction, along with others that combined have a $3.1 billion
outstanding balance.

Planet Fitness’s
whole-business securitization, which helped Guggenheim Securities win
GlobalCapital’s 2019 best securitization bank of the year award, sunk to as low
as 64 cents on the dollar in April, down from 103 cents previously. One of its
gyms in West Virginia may have exposed more than 200 people to Covid-19,
according to reports Monday. The company said the gym was closed “for an
additional deep cleaning by a third party” but would quickly open again.
Whether customers return just as swiftly is an open question.

If there’s one company to watch, though, it just might be Massage Envy. The private-equity-backed
spa chain, which had more than 1,000 locations when it issued its
whole-business securitization, was always something of an outlier, given a
60-minute wellness massage or healthy skin facial costs about $50 for members.
That’s a different price point than Domino’s, Five Guys or Taco Bell. The price
of its securitization fell to 73 cents on the dollar in May. Now at 82 cents,
that’s still equivalent to a yield of more than 12%, a level in the
corporate-bond market that would indicate distress.


It’s still quite likely that investors end up unimpaired,
even in these struggling bonds. But this is certainly not what they thought
they were signing up for, with plenty of competing forces now muddling the outlook.
Anecdotally, I’ve made buffalo wings twice during lockdown that I’d consider
better than TGI Friday’s and generally feel more adept in the kitchen than
ever. I suspect others feel similarly. All else equal, how many people will
want to venture out to support a dine-in chain over a small business, given all
the painful stories about their struggles to make ends meet? Who exactly is
eager to stroll around a shopping mall, let alone get their hands messy with a
Cinnabon or Auntie Anne’s pretzel?

I try not to get too committed to any one post-coronavirus
future, but at least within the whole-business securitization market, a clear
dichotomy is starting to emerge that roughly aligns with common-sense
expectations. If a chain delivers food to customers in the comfort of their own
home or car, it’ll be fine. If it’s a ubiquitous dine-in establishment, it’s a
more dicey proposition. If it’s a gym that offered free at-home classes during
lockdowns, people might very well just keep doing that, or make a one-time
splurge on their own equipment. And it could be a while before customers feel
truly relaxed when getting a massage or facial.

That’s what this niche market is saying, at least. If
investors think that assessment is out of whack, some huge yields beckon.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the
editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Brian Chappatta at bchappatta1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Daniel Niemi at dniemi1@bloomberg.net

A Pandemic Is a Terrible Time to Get Evicted - Bloomberg

A Pandemic Is a Terrible Time to Get Evicted - Bloomberg





Editorial Board
Don’t Let Covid-19 Cause a Surge of Evictions
Congress must do more to help renters stay in their homes.

By Editorial Board
June 30, 2020, 1:00 PM GMT+1

The coronavirus is putting Americans under severe stress,
challenging them to cope with uncertainty, protect themselves and their loved
ones, and in many cases just put food on the table. At such a harrowing time,
getting thrown out of your home would be an unthinkable hardship. Yet that’s
what is likely to happen to millions of renters — particularly people of color
— unless Congress finds a solution, soon.

More than 100 million people live in rental housing in the
U.S. A disproportionate share of that population consists of Black and Latino
families that the pandemic is already hitting hardest in many ways.

Even before the outbreak, these renters were in a fragile
position. Nearly half of all households — and a majority of Black and Hispanic
ones — were spending more than 30% of their income on rent, the government’s
threshold for excessive cost. Federal subsidies, designed to keep housing
expenses below that threshold, covered only a small fraction of qualifying
families. And instead of addressing the issue, Donald Trump’s administration
has been reversing efforts to expand access to affordable housing.

The coronavirus has only made things worse, and the U.S.
response is so far inadequate. The CARES Act, passed by
Congress in March, offered homeowners as much as six months of forbearance on
mortgage payments, but gave renters no
similar relief
— only a dollop of emergency funding and a temporary
moratorium on evictions from federally financed propertie
s. Other moratoriums, imposed by municipalities,
are already starting to expire. Meanwhile, more than 21 million people have little or no
confidence that they’ll be able to make next month’s rent payment,
according to the Census Bureau. That includes about 36% of people in Black
households, and 44% in Hispanic or Latino households.

So why not just extend the moratoriums? For one, doing so
won’t improve renters’ finances. Unpaid bills will accrue, creating a bigger
problem later. Beyond that, most
inexpensive rental units belong to smaller
individual investor
s, who often don’t have other sources of income
.
Driving them into default on their mortgages, or leaving them without
the wherewithal to maintain properties, will ultimately hurt everyone by
shrinking an already inadequate supply of affordable housing.

Extending enhanced
unemployment benefits,
which are providing an added $600 per week through
July 31, can help keep the problem from getting worse. But it won’t reach many
in distress, including those who for various reasons can’t access
unemployment insurance
.

The solution, then, is to provide direct federal housing
assistance. In the context of the vast support Congress has already provided,
the cost isn’t out of line: about $12 billion a month if combined with enhanced
unemployment benefits, or $16 billion a month without. This money should go
primarily toward expanding the existing Housing
Choice Voucher program
, which — despite some shortcomings — is designed to
automatically compensate for renters’ income loss while providing direct
payments to landlords.

Unfortunately, the money will take time to reach people,
partly because many local housing authorities are ill-equipped to handle a
surge in cases. In the meantime, Congress should give states the flexibility to
distribute relief funds through whatever channels — including private
nonprofits — can get assistance quickly to the people who need it most. It
should also protect those who nonetheless face eviction by requiring
municipalities receiving federal funds to provide services such as mediation
and legal advice.

A wave of evictions would severely deepen a crisis that is
already testing the resilience of American society, with unpredictable
consequences. At this crucial moment, Congress must do everything possible to
keep people in their homes.

To contact the senior editor responsible for Bloomberg
Opinion’s editorials: David Shipley at davidshipley@bloomberg.net .