Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Max Hastings: How Delusions About World War II Fed Brexit Mania - Bloomberg

Max Hastings: How Delusions About World War II Fed Brexit Mania - Bloomberg

How Delusions About World War II Fed Brexit Mania

Even Churchill recognized that Britain was a small power made large through connections to Europe.

 

By Max Hastings

January 3, 2021, 2:00 AM EST

 

Three days ago, Britain completed the process of quitting the European Union, a major act of foreign policy that most of the world finds bewildering, and considers ill-advised.

 

It brought to mind comments at an Anglo-German conference some 15 years ago made by the then-chairman of Mercedes-Benz: “I want to tell our British friends how much we hope they will remain partners in the EU. Should they decide to leave, however, I hope you will not consider it impolite if I suggest that, in an age of giant trading blocs, you may find it cold out there.”

 

So why has Britain taken this leap into the unknown? What follows is a rumination on the British character, rather than on our government.

 

Nonetheless, we shall begin with a remark last month by Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, who possesses the fiercely contested distinction of being the least impressive member of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s cabinet. Asked why Britain had been the first nation to authorize a Covid-19 vaccine, he compared the quality of U.S. and European scientists and regulators, then said, “We’re a much better country than every single one of them, aren’t we?”

 

Underpinning almost everything Britain has done since 1945 is a belief among most of its people that we are special, different, important. Many middle-sized nations cherish this conceit in some degree — think of France — but few allow it to influence their political courses as doggedly as do Winston Churchill’s inheritors.

 

World War II still dominates British self-image. As a historian of the conflict, I am sometimes driven to despair by my fellow-countrymen’s determination to preserve nationalistic myths about it, rather than to acknowledge harsh realities. The phrase “Grand Alliance,” coined by Churchill, fitted the glorious, largely fictional pageant of which he became the most influential literary begetter, through his six-volume history of the conflict.

 

In truth, the U.S., Britain and the Soviet Union waged war with very different objectives, and emerged in much different conditions. The U.S. was an indisputable victor, and the only one to emerge from the war in a vastly strengthened economic condition. Russia suffered unspeakable human losses — 27 million dead, against fewer than half a million each for the U.S. and Britain — but the capture of Berlin enabled the Communist leadership to claim its only unequivocal national success between 1917 and its collapse in 1991 (with the possible exception of the 1957 launch of the Sputnik satellite).

 

This goes far to explain why Russia still makes more of annual commemorations of its “Great Patriotic War” than does any other nation.

 

Britain, meanwhile, was financially ruined by the war, which also rang the tocsin for its empire. Yet no postwar event or success, including attainment of a modern standard of living that would seem sybaritic to our fathers and grandfathers, has matched the magic, in national folklore, of our lone 1940-41 defiance of the Nazis. Modern Brexiteers warm to King George VI’s wonderfully foolish remark to his mother, after France surrendered, that he was happier that “we have no allies to be polite to and to pamper.”

 

I have written books in which I point out that Churchill himself saw absolutely nothing glorious about Britain’s isolation. Before the French acknowledged defeat, he made the desperate, hopeless gesture of offering their prime minister, Paul Reynaud, “indissoluble political union” between the two countries, if only France would fight on.

 

Most of the British upper class despised Americans almost as much as they did Continentals. Their prime minister was among the few who sincerely respected the U.S. He recognized that victory over Hitler was unattainable without American belligerence.

 

A middle-class Londoner named Vere Hodgson wrote in her wartime diary, acknowledging a debt to the prime minister’s half-American parentage, “Had he been pure English aristocracy he would not have been able to lead in the way he has.” She recognized that many of Churchill’s fellow members of the upper class regarded him as a vulgarian, but she observed wisely: “We need more than good taste to save Britain at this particular moment.”

 

Churchill himself wrote of the night following Pearl Harbor, when he knew that America was in the war, “I went to bed and slept the sleep of the saved and thankful.”

 

Wartime opinion surveys nonetheless showed the British far less enthusiastic about their transatlantic allies than was the prime minister, and still in love with their vision of plucky little Britain, crying defiance from the White Cliffs of Dover.

 

Richard Weight, author of a 2002 study of the modern British search for identity, has written of the wartime era that many politicians, poets, historians and newspapers drew explicit parallels with the Elizabethan and Napoleonic eras: “They portrayed Hitler as the latest in a long line of jumped-up, power-crazed Continental dictators, and they emphasized the unshakeable continuity of ‘the island story.’”

 

What is remarkable is not that this thesis exercised such power over British imaginations in 1940, but that it continues to do so 80 years later. A year or two ago, I lamented to my old friend the historian Michael Howard, an exceptionally wise nonagenarian, the xenophobia at the heart of the Brexit movement. It is extraordinary, I said, that the British should regard foreigners with such disdain. He gave a theatrical sigh and said: “Dear boy, they always have done.”

 

In an important study of Britain’s relationship with the EU published in 1998, the journalist Hugo Young, himself a passionate European, wrote of Conservative Party antics: “The world they defended seemed … to be nostalgic and narrow; assailed by demons, racked by existential confusion. They were incapable of absorbing the possibility that Europe, by immensely strengthening the postwar local economies, might have been the making of the nation-state in the modern world.”

 

Almost half a century ago, in 1973, the British people reluctantly acquiesced in joining the European Economic Community only because they had exhausted all other possibilities of extending their influence abroad. While U.K. governments enjoyed close relationships with Washington, none doubted that we were immeasurably subordinate to the U.S.

 

When Britain’s empire was lost, it sought instead to sustain global reach through mastery of the Commonwealth, to which most of its former colonies and dominions belonged. This institution has proved to possess a ritual significance which pleases the Queen, its official head, but has yielded only marginal economic benefits and negligible political ones.

 

Many in the British governing establishment hesitantly accepted the notion of joining Europe because they deluded themselves that they could dominate it. They failed to recognize that relative British economic weakness, measured against Germany’s ascent and France’s recovery, would make this impossible.

 

They also sold membership to the British people on a false prospectus, asserting that the EEC was solely a trading partnership, which demanded no sacrifice of sovereignty. This was a lie, known to be such by all thoughtful politicians. The betrayal — to use a word favored by Brexiteers ever since — laid foundations for the outright hostility to Europe that has lately supplanted mere general indifference.

 

In the 21st century, the anti-European faction was transformed into a mass movement by immigration, which a majority of the British people oppose, because they view our crowded island as full. In 2000, Britain had a population of 59 million. Today, the figure is 68 million.

 

Yet an irony, still little understood by most of the public, is that leaving Europe will do nothing to curb immigration from beyond the continent, which continues to surge. Net migration from EU countries to Britain has fallen dramatically, to 58,000 last year, and will presumably fall further as EU citizens lose their right to live and work here. Meanwhile, between March 2019 and March 2020, 316,000 non-EU migrants arrived in Britain, and absolutely nothing about Brexit will empower Britain to reduce this figure.

 

The great political success of the Brexiteers is that they have convinced a narrow majority of the British people that most of their woes, even the weather, derive from Europe. In truth, scarcely any do, but foreigners make convenient scapegoats. There are close similarities between the tribal attitude of President Donald Trump’s supporters in the U.S. and Johnson supporters in Britain. Both see themselves, above all, as patriots.

 

Both have lost faith in their respective nations’ traditional governing establishments, and in the collectivist principles upon which they have based our respective nations’ foreign policies. Hugo Young once described Europe as “the graveyard where the reputations of a large [British] political class lie buried.”

 

Just as in the U.S. where many of society’s “haves” support Donald Trump from economic self-interest, so in Britain a spoiled, rich minority has formed an unexpected alliance with humbler Brexiteers, because its members are privileged enough to be personally impervious to the national economic cost of Brexit. They share the “have-nots” dislike of the Continent, save as a holiday destination.

 

Some of us have always believed that partnership with Europe, despite all its imperfections, offers our nation’s only plausible future, while isolation represents bondage to a mummified past. But we have lost the argument, because the island heritage vision still exercises extraordinary power over many British people, especially elderly white people. Though they might not quote Shakespeare from memory, their guiding spirit is that of the lines about England — as it then was — attributed to John of Gaunt in “Richard II”:

 

This happy breed of men, this little world

 

This precious stone set in the silver sea,

 

Which serves it in the office of a wall,

 

Or as a moat defensive to a house,

 

Against the envy of less happier lands,

 

It is pretty potty, of course, that a middle-ranking offshore island, with little indigenous industrial capacity, should aspire to condescend to other nations. But the French social historian Francois Bedarida, who possessed a deep understanding of the British displayed in several books, was not wrong when he wrote a generation ago that “the train of prejudice” against France ran through British souls, and was “still on the rails.”

 

Many British people, at the onset of this year of our Lord 2021, still sincerely suppose that, because we were on the winning side in 1918 and 1945, while most Continental nations were humiliated or shamed, we are superior beings. Michael Howard observed after the 2016 Brexit referendum: “We shall be condemned to become global harlots, doing business with any regime that will accommodate us, however unpleasant.”

 

Some commentators believe that the British will henceforward experience a slow, painful awakening. More likely, in my view, however, is that most will not notice our decline in wealth, relative to what we might have enjoyed had we retained membership of the EU.

 

The issue of Europe has not merely poisoned Britain’s politics, but induced a drugged stupor in many of its people. They have embraced a nostalgic vision that some of us fear will deny us a stake in the most important and exciting things the world will achieve in the years ahead. We have voted to become a theme park.

 

I wrote two years ago that if Johnson achieved his ambition to become prime minister, Britain would forsake any claim to be regarded as a serious country. I do not retract those words. My own vanquished faction can only stand by in sorrow, as the victors in our tragic debate over Europe enfold themselves in the tired old Union flag.

 

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

 

To contact the author of this story:

Max Hastings at mhastings32@bloomberg.net

 

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net

 


Monday, January 4, 2021

Trump’s Georgia Call Raises New Prosecution Risk in Final Days - Bloomberg

Trump’s Georgia Call Raises New Prosecution Risk in Final Days - Bloomberg

Trump’s Georgia Call Raises New Prosecution Risk in Final Days

By Erik Larson

January 4, 2021, 10:24 PM GMT

 

President Donald Trump’s phone call pressing Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes” to reverse his defeat in the state may have ironically produced what Republicans have failed to put forth in dozens of lawsuits: smoking-gun evidence of election fraud.

 

That’s certainly how U.S. Representative Ted Lieu, a former military prosecutor, sees it. Noting that any conduct that “knowingly and willfully deprives, defrauds, or attempts to deprive or defraud” residents of a fair election is a federal crime, the California Democrat on Monday called on FBI Director Christopher Wray to open a probe into Trump’s suggestion that Raffensperger “recalculate” the election tally.

 

“We believe Donald Trump engaged in solicitation of, or conspiracy to commit, a number of election crimes,” Lieu said in a letter joined by fellow Democratic Representative Kathleen Rice of New York, former district attorney. “Mr. Trump, for purposes of a federal election, solicited Secretary of State Raffensperger to procure ballots that are known to be false.”

 

While the request for a Trump appointee to investigate his boss during his last few weeks in office may be a long shot, the fiery reaction to the Saturday call is likely to add to the pressure Joe Biden‘s Justice Department will face to pursue a prosecution of the current president.

 

 “I think in order to deter potentially authoritarian-oriented presidents and presidential candidates it would be important to prosecute activity like this because it really does undermine the very basic aspect of a democracy -- that we don’t stuff the ballot box,” said Richard Hasen, a law professor at the University of California Irvine.

 

The White House press office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

 

Such a prosecution would cut against the stated desire of Biden and other Democrats to move on from Trump’s divisive term in office, and would be difficult to prove without clear evidence that the president knew he lost the election and wanted Georgia officials to overturn it anyway. Once Trump leaves office on Jan. 20, he will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy, and an election-fraud probe will join an array of potential criminal cases that could theoretically be brought against him.

 

Norm Eisen, a lawyer for the nonprofit Voter Protection Program, said Trump’s words gave “more than enough” justification to open an investigation, particularly the president’s apparent threat to open a criminal probe into Raffensperger if he didn’t comply.

 

“The liability here is quite serious,” Eisen said in a call with reporters on Monday. “Federal law prohibits attempts to engage in election fraud. It provides criminal penalties for such attempts.”

 

State Investigation

Hasen pointed out that knowingly committing voter fraud is also a state crime in Georgia. Raffensperger said on Monday it was possible that state prosecutors could launch an investigation.

 

Trump’s call with Raffensperger came after weeks of failed efforts by Republicans to convince judges across the country that Democrats stole the election through a variety of illegal means. Dozens of suits by Trump and his supporters have been tossed by courts after they failed to produce evidence of a widespread scheme.

 

But a number of Congressional Republicans have cited those baseless claims in saying they will oppose certifying Biden’s victory on Wednesday, a previously routine step ahead of inauguration. Though their effort is doomed to fail, many have expressed fears that Trump’s GOP is moving away from democratic norms, concerns intensified by the call.

 

“It’s not okay or normal for anyone” including Trump “to call up an election official and ask them to change the result, and that’s exactly what happened,” Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, a Democrat whose state was one of several targeted by the GOP in lawsuits before and after the election, said on the call with Eisen. “I am astounded by this. Being upset with the election result does not justify this.”

 

Proving Intent

Hasen said a criminal case over the call could be complicated by difficulties proving that Trump “knowingly” committed election fraud, since the president may have evidence that he believes his own conspiracy claims.

 

Trump may be “so deluded into believing the nonsense he’s spouting, it would be impossible to prove he was knowingly making false statements about how much fraud there was in the Georgia election,” Hasen said.

 

The president raised many of the wilder voter-fraud conspiracy claims on his call with Raffensperger, suggesting that thousands of dead people had voted, ballots had been shredded or counted multiple times and that voting machines had been tampered with. Raffensperger who denied these claims as false.

 

Hasen said another possibility would be for Trump to be impeached again over the call. Several Democratic lawmakers including U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez voiced support for such action on Monday. Though it might seem pointless to impeach a president leaving office in roughly two weeks, Hasen noted that a Senate conviction would prevent Trump, who has teased running for president in 2024, from ever holding federal office again.

 


Saturday, January 2, 2021

Don't Just Blame Billionaires for Wealth Inequality - Bloomberg

Don't Just Blame Billionaires for Wealth Inequality - Bloomberg

For Corrosive Inequality, Look to the Upper Middle Class

It's not only billionaires that are the problem.

 

By Noah Smith

December 24, 2020, 6:00 AM EST

The service economy is part of the problem

 

The U.S. seems to finally have decided that inequality is a problem. The reassurance that a rising tide would lift all boats rings hollow after a series of recessions left so many stuck in the mud. Economists are realizing that allowing greater inequality often doesn’t boost growth. And the moral case for inequality — the notion that rich people are fairly compensated for creating huge amounts of economic value — also seems to have largely collapsed. Even some Republicans are now talking about the problem.

 

But the difficult and interrelated questions of why inequality has increased, and what to do about it, remain largely unanswered. The loudest voices on the issue tend to emphasize the upper tail of the distribution — the vast fortunes of Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg or Elon Musk. Even before the recent surge in stock valuations, a small sliver of Americans was controlling a noticeably larger share of the nation’s wealth.

 

Typically, the most prominent crusaders against inequality call for much higher taxes as a way of bringing the mega-rich down to earth.

 

But while upper-tail wealth inequality has certainly increased a lot, there’s another, subtler kind of inequality that gets far less attention. In the 1980s, the middle class diverged, with the upper middle pulling away from the lower middle.

 

You can see this by looking at the U.S. Gini Index. The Gini is a traditional measure of inequality that isn’t very sensitive to what happens at the ends of the distribution. This makes it a reasonably good measure of inequality between the upper and lower middle class. It also measures income, which is more relevant to most people’s daily consumption habits and living standards than wealth. The Gini Index increased a lot in the 1980s, but by the mid-1990s it had stabilized at the new higher level:

 

The fact that the widening of inequality in the middle class happened decades in the past, and was largely complete by the mid-1990s, probably helps explain why it doesn’t get discussed much these days.  But it’s a change that never reversed itself; It's become a permanent feature of our economy, something we now just take for granted. And it may be having a long-term corrosive effect on American society and politics.

 

Richard Reeves, in his 2017 book “Dream Hoarders,” suggests that the upper middle class has been hoarding the best educational, occupational and residential opportunities from the lower middle class, creating resentment among the latter group. If the people making $50,000 a year feel that there’s just no way for them to live in the same neighborhoods or go to the same schools as the $100,000-a-year set, they may become disaffected and resentful. In fact, this separation could eventually deal a death blow to America’s perception of itself as a middle-class society; something akin to Karl Marx’s distinction between the proletariat and the petit bourgeoisie might emerge in the U.S., fomenting social strife similar to what Marx successfully predicted in Europe.

 

The big question, of course, is why middle-class inequality rose back in the 1980s. One possibility is education. The Hamilton Project, part of the Brookings Institution, calculates that the wage premiums from a college degree and from an advanced degree both increased enormously between 1979 and 1994, from under 40% to around 200%, and flattened out thereafter — exactly mimicking the behavior of the Gini Index. So it’s possible that the rise of computers and information technology benefitted educated people much more than those without a degree.

 

A second, related explanation is an industrial shift. Economic research shows that middle-skilled, routine jobs have disappeared from big cities, meaning that it’s now very hard to move to New York or Los Angeles and get a good job as an office drone or factory worker. That could be due to the rise of knowledge-industry clusters that push old-line industries out of cities. It could also be related to the general decline of manufacturing relative to services as the country’s main engine of job growth, and to the offshoring of routine work.

 

A third potential reason is the decline of private-sector unions, which really accelerated in the 1980s:

 

Weak or nonexistent unions could also exacerbate the changes from industrial shifts and changing technology by preventing workers in restaurants, shops and other local services from forcing companies to make sure their jobs are as good as the factory jobs they replaced.

 

So as the U.S. focuses on the fortunes of Bezos and Musk, it would do well not to forget this other kind of inequality. The 1980s left the U.S. an uncomfortable legacy that we’ve never dealt with. If we want to restore the ideal of a middle-class nation, we will eventually need to do something about it.

 

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

 

To contact the author of this story:

Noah Smith at nsmith150@bloomberg.net

 

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Susan Warren at susanwarren@bloomberg.net

 


Homebuyers Brace for Pain in a Post-Vaccine Housing Market - Bloomberg

Homebuyers Brace for Pain in a Post-Vaccine Housing Market - Bloomberg

Homebuyers Brace for Pain in a Post-Pandemic Market

Record-low housing inventories, rising demand and higher prices will strengthen the argument for renting next year.

By Conor Sen

December 1, 2020, 8:30 AM EST

 

As coronavirus vaccines approach a widespread rollout, the next six months of economic activity are going to be dominated by the impact of society's growing immunity — and easing fears. Combined with historically low levels of housing inventory, that could make the traditional spring homebuying season a particularly frustrating one for buyers.

 

Recent housing data show how tight inventories already are. The supply of existing homes fell to 2.5 months in October, a record low for a period when normal inventory levels are four to five months of supply. For new homes, the months’ supply of inventory fell to 3.3 in October, also a record low.

 

Real-time inventory data from Altos Research show that the supply of homes on the market continues to be down more than 40% year-over-year. This is one reason sentiment from homebuilders is at record-high levels and why home-price growth is accelerating.

 

Now layer on the timing for potential vaccine rollouts. Goldman Sachs forecasts that half of Americans will be vaccinated by May. When you consider that some people have acquired natural immunity through infection — perhaps as many as 30% — it's possible that the U.S. could be approaching herd immunity by late spring. At the least, we should see far less spread of the virus than we've seen since the onset of the pandemic.

 

That portends a V-shaped recovery by the middle of next year in areas of the economy hardest-hit by the pandemic. While questions will remain about business travel and going into the office — activities that may see permanent shifts from the pandemic — there will be a rise in employment and demand for travel and leisure industries.

 

That should have positive second-order effects even for workers and consumers who haven't been directly affected by the pandemic. Workers who didn't lose income may have increased their savings for fear they might yet get laid off. The abatement of that risk should give them more confidence to spend.

 

That could mean a new cohort of U.S. households looking to buy homes in the spring. While the pandemic accelerated the purchase plans of many renters, there was also the view among some people that a pandemic is a poor time to make a big financial decision, such as buying a house. It's these households that may decide that early 2021 is their time to buy, only to run into the challenges of low inventories and high prices.

 

There might be some offsetting factors on the supply side. Some homeowners who decided not to list their homes for sale during the pandemic may now choose to do so. And an end to foreclosure moratoriums, which contributed to the inventory shortage by holding homes off the market in 2020, could increase supply in 2021.

 

Post-pandemic market signals might also lead households to make different decisions than they would have a year ago. Let's say home prices are 12% higher in the second quarter of 2021 than they were at the end of 2019. Meanwhile, apartment rents have fallen in many cities, particularly high-cost cities like New York and San Francisco.

 

It's possible that the rent-versus-own math may have shifted as much as 30% toward renting rather than buying by May. For those so inclined, it might be a better financial move to rent for a while at a bargain price rather than getting into bidding wars for suburban homes selling at elevated prices. This sort of dynamic could help rebalance the housing market and give hard-hit cities a lift as they begin their post-pandemic recoveries.

 

But the base case next year should be a historically strong first half for the housing market, fueled by crisis-level inventories, low interest rates, a post-vaccine economic boom and a demographic tailwind from family-forming millennial households. This will be welcome news for the economy — unless you're looking to buy.

 

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

 

To contact the author of this story:

Conor Sen at csen9@bloomberg.net

 

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Susan Warren at susanwarren@bloomberg.net

 


Friday, January 1, 2021

Monoclonal antibodies: Overburdened hospitals are not offering this treatment against covid-19 - The Washington Post

Monoclonal antibodies: Overburdened hospitals are not offering this treatment against covid-19 - The Washington Post

Only one covid-19 treatment is designed to keep people out of the hospital. Many overburdened hospitals are not offering it.

Laurie McGinley

Dec. 31, 2020 at 3:00 p.m. GMT

 

Medical centers in the United States are balking at providing the only treatment for covid-19 that aims to keep people out of the hospital, leaving hundreds of thousands of doses of the medication unused.

 

Monoclonal antibodies — described as “unbelievable” by President Trump, who received the treatment this fall — are designed for patients newly diagnosed with covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, who have a high risk of developing complications and becoming seriously ill.

 

But for hospitals already strained by a surge of covid-19 cases, the outpatient pharmaceutical treatment presents a major logistical challenge as exhausted staff scramble to care for patients and race to inoculate front-line workers with the first coronavirus vaccines.

 

As of Wednesday, the federal government had allocated 550,000 doses to states and territorial health departments, which had distributed 378,000 doses to health-care facilities, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. But only 20 percent of the supply had been used, HHS said.

 

Some hospitals, including Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, have declined allocations, while others have simply not used the antibody treatments. The slow rollout reflects myriad challenges involving the intravenous drugs, which are made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Eli Lilly and were granted emergency use authorizations in November.

 

The treatments must be given within 10 days of the onset of symptoms — a time when many patients are hunkering down at home, hoping to get better. Clinics and hospitals need to set up a special infusion space to keep contagious patients away from other people, including cancer patients receiving chemotherapy. Nurses must be pulled from other duties to monitor patients for the two-hour sessions, in part to watch for rare allergic reactions.

 

Questions about the drugs’ effectiveness further complicate matters. The Infectious Diseases Society of America recommends against routine use of the drugs, citing a lack of evidence, and the National Institutes of Health says “insufficient data” exists to recommend for or against the medications. Clinical trials of the two antibody treatments continue.

 

 “Right now, we are swamped with both covid and non-covid patients,” said Pieter Cohen, an associate professor at Harvard Medical School and physician at the Cambridge Health Alliance, a health-care system in the Boston area that does not offer the treatment.

 

 “The last thing we want is to use our resources for an unproven treatment,” said Cohen, who works at the system’s Somerville, Mass., clinic.

 

The lagging demand was not anticipated by experts who warned of a shortage, not a surplus, of antibody treatments. In clearing the products in November, the Food and Drug Administration said they could be used broadly for high-risk covid-19 patients, a group that includes millions of older people and those with medical conditions such as diabetes. The Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed, which aims to develop drugs and vaccines for covid-19, ordered 1.2 million doses for delivery by the end of January, said Janet Woodcock, leader of Operation Warp Speed’s therapeutics arm.

 

Demand was expected to surge when Trump made a laudatory video after receiving the Regeneron medication and promised to make the antibody treatments free to patients needing them. Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie (R) and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson were treated with monoclonal antibodies after developing covid-19. Trump attorney Rudolph W. Giuliani told the New York Daily News he received the Regeneron drug. Some people predicted only VIPs would get access to the drugs.

 

But many patients and doctors don’t know much about the medicine and have not been asking for it, officials say. In an appearance on CNBC on Dec. 15, HHS Secretary Alex Azar lamented a surprising surplus of the medications, partly because “people are waiting too long to seek out the treatments.” Such delays, he warned, meant that, for some patients, “it may be too late in order to get the benefit of these antibody treatments that beat back the spread of the virus.”

 

Experts say states’ experiences vary, with some, including Louisiana, Nebraska and Texas, embracing the treatment and others showing little interest. HHS has predicted that the pace will pick up as more facilities, including nursing homes, begin administering the drugs and mandatory reporting begins early in January.

 

Monoclonal antibodies are proteins created in the laboratory to mimic the human immune system. The treatment works by imitating natural defenses instead of waiting for the body to mount its own response and make it harder for the coronavirus to infect human cells.

 

The Lilly product, called bamlanivimab, is a single antibody cleared by the FDA on Nov. 9. Regeneron’s cocktail, made up of two monoclonal antibodies, casirivimab and imdevimab, was authorized less than two weeks later.

 

At UCLA Health, four or so patients a day are being given the antibody treatments, according to Tara Vijayan, an infectious-disease specialist there. “Implementation has been difficult to say the least,” with lively debates about how to allocate space and staff, she said. “It took a month of constant meetings for a drug that doesn’t have a lot of data.”

 

Still, she said, with intensive care units reaching capacity amid a covid-19 surge in Los Angeles, “if there are ways to reduce that, we will try it.”

 

Operation Warp Speed’s Woodcock acknowledged the difficulties of administering the antibody treatments for hospitals under stress from a raging pandemic. “It is not easy,” she said. “These hospitals are being hammered.”

 

But, she said, the medications could ease hospitals’ burdens by reducing admissions. Although the clinical trials for the treatments are not large, she said, “the totality of evidence is very convincing” that the drugs can keep people out of the hospital.

 

“This is the only thing we have for outpatients, other than just telling them to stay home and isolate,” she said. She added that the government is planning steps to increase uptake of the treatments.

 

Mark McClellan, a former FDA commissioner who has been working to increase use of the drugs, said: “If it were my mom, I would want her to get it.”

 

But many doctors remain skeptical or undecided. Rajesh Gandhi, an infectious-disease doctor at Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, said his hospital is offering the treatment to high-risk patients in clinical trials and outside of studies. He said he was glad Regeneron and Lilly plan to complete their trials, saying additional data is needed.

 

 “We are still trying to get a definitive answer to how beneficial this is” and which patients are helped, he said.

 

One of the biggest obstacles for clinics is identifying patients within the 10-day window during which the drugs are effective. Karen Bloch, an infectious-disease doctor at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said the hospital uses coronavirus test results to identify eligible patients.

 

“We look at the test results and reach out to the folks who fit,” said Bloch, who added that the medical center is providing the treatments to 18 to 22 patients a day.

 

To keep covid-19 patients apart from other patients, Vanderbilt created a free-standing area with walls, heat and light in what used to be a parking garage. Bloch said she doesn’t know whether the treatments are helpful, because she is not conducting a clinical trial.

 

 “But from patients, we are hearing good reports,” she said.

 

Tufts Medical Center in Boston has been offering the treatment for about a month in its new Respiratory Infection Clinic, said Helen Boucher, an infectious-disease specialist. “The demand has not been overwhelming,” she said, “but it’s still early days.”

 

Woodcock said the government plans to ensure the drugs are distributed to a wider range of facilities, including home-infusion companies and other sites. CVS Health is running a pilot project to provide the medicine at home. Woodcock said she also plans to talk to groups such as the American Medical Association and to highlight “early adopters,” including the Mayo Clinic and the state of Maryland, which has set up regional antibody infusion centers, including in Baltimore’s convention center.

 

Lilly said it is working with hospitals and other providers to try to ensure that patients who need bamlanivimab can get it. The company said infusion centers are being created in several health facilities and repurposed public spaces to provide the treatment during off hours.

 

Even as coronavirus vaccines steal the spotlight, McClellan said, monoclonal antibodies will be needed “for people who don’t take the vaccine, or don’t mount an immune response when they do. This is something we need to set up and work out for the long term.”

 


Mitsubishi Heavy to build biggest zero-carbon steel plant - Nikkei Asia

Mitsubishi Heavy to build biggest zero-carbon steel plant - Nikkei Asia

Mitsubishi Heavy to build biggest zero-carbon steel plant

Austrian test facility to run on hydrogen when it goes online next year

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will build the new hydrogen steel pilot plant at a complex of Austrian steelmaker Voestalpine.   © Reuters

TOKYO -- Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will soon complete in Austria the world's largest steel plant capable of attaining net-zero carbon dioxide emissions.

Mitsubishi Heavy, through a British unit, is constructing the pilot plant at a complex of Austrian steelmaker Voestalpine. Trial operation is slated to begin in 2021.

The plant will use hydrogen instead of coal in the reduction process for iron ore. The next-generation equipment will produce 250,000 tons of steel product a year.

The global steel industry generated about 2 billion tons of CO2 in 2018, according to the International Energy Agency -- double the volume in 2000. The steel sector's share among all industries grew 5 percentage points to 25%.

Iron ore reduction accounts for much of the CO2 emissions in steelmaking. Japanese steelmakers including Nippon Steel are developing hydrogen-consuming reduction processes based on the conventional blast furnace design.

Mitsubishi Heavy's plant adopts a process called direct reduced iron, or DRI. New blast furnaces require trillions of yen (1 trillion yen equals $9.6 billion) in investment. Although DRI equipment produces less steel, the investment is estimated at less than half of blast furnaces.

For DRI to attain the same level of cost-competitiveness as blast furnaces, low-cost hydrogen will be key. Market costs for hydrogen now stand at around 100 yen per normal cu. meter, estimates the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

The government aims to get the hydrogen costs down to 30 yen per normal cu. meter by 2030, mainly via mass production.

But for DRI to be feasible in the steel industry, "the level needs to go below 10 yen," said an executive at a large steelmaker.

Germany's SMS, the world's leading supplier of steelmaking equipment, is pursuing the hydrogen-fueled steelmaking process, along with runner-up Danieli of Italy. Among steelmakers, Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal plans to build a German pilot hydrogen steel plant in 2021. Competitors such as Germany's Thyssenkrupp and Salzgitter are investing in DRI.

Mitsubishi Heavy, the world's third-largest steelmaking equipment supplier, is also securing a hydrogen supply chain. In October, the company bought a stake in a Norwegian outfit that makes hydrogen-producing equipment.

Elsewhere, Mitsubishi Heavy has decided to acquire stakes in hydrogen producers in such places as Australia. The group will oversee supply of hydrogen, together with equipment construction and engineering.

The European Union announced in July an initiative to invest 470 billion euros ($572 billion) in hydrogen by 2050. Hydrogen steel plants are anticipated to receive support. Europe is home to a growing number of businesses that deal in hydrogen. Mitsubishi Heavy will capture the steel industry's demand for hydrogen to offset the softer growth prospects for thermal power plant equipment.

ARK's Cathie Wood Bets On DNA Innovators - Bloomberg

ARK's Cathie Wood Bets On DNA Innovators - Bloomberg

The Best Stock Picker of 2020 Wins With Disruptive DNA

How Cathie Wood left all the other top competitors far behind.

 

By Matthew A. Winkler

December 31, 2020, 10:00 AM GMT

2020 was a very good year for Cathie Wood.

 

That's because whatever benefits central bankers bequeathed to shareholders with next-to-zero interest rates and the record $14 trillion global money supply increase in 2020, Wood beat every stock picker by betting on the innovators in DNA development who are rescuing the world from the global pandemic.

 

Among the 367 U.S.-based mutual funds with 60% of their $5 billion (or more) in American equities, her ARK Genomic Revolution ETF, ARK Innovation ETF and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF are far ahead, reaping bonanzas of 203%, 159% and 157%, respectively.

 

Wood left her closest competitor trailing by 60 percentage points. She also delivered a total return (income plus appreciation) that is 11 times the gain for the S&P 500; 19 times the average of equity-exchange traded funds; 17 times the advance for the health-care benchmark, and 5 times the similar measure for technology, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

Wood achieved these feats with investments she considers so transformational that they have created enough wealth to change the economy's trajectory before and after the coronavirus killed more than 1.7 million people this year.

 

Her five favorites in ARK Genomic Revolution appreciated a combined 431%. They comprise Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, the San Diego-based biotech focused on treatments for diseases, including the coronavirus, representing 4.7% of the fund and returning 750% in 2020; Teladoc Health Inc., the Purchase, New York-based health-care services company, 4.6% of the fund and up 136%; Crispr Therapeutics AG, the Basel, Switzerland-based biotech maker of gene-based medicines, 6.2% of the fund and returning 177%; Pacific Biosciences of California Inc., the Menlo Park life science and diagnostics maker of inexpensive DNA sequencing, representing 7% of the fund and returning 432%; and San Francisco's Twist Bioscience Corp., specializing in synthetic DNA, including genome engineering, which gained 661% and is 5.9% of the fund, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

The 65-year-old Wood, a summa cum laude graduate in finance and economics from the University of Southern California, has made disruptive innovation her calling card ever since Ark Investment Management LLC became a registered adviser in January 2014 at a point when money management increasingly was a passive, index-driven business. Her focus on genome sequencing, robotics, artificial intelligence, energy storage and blockchain technology proved prescient: ARK Genomic Revolution has attracted record monthly inflows in December, bringing the fund's new money total for 2020 to $4.7 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

Unlike most of her competitors, who rely on market benchmarks to determine the size of their holdings, Wood enabled ARK Genomic Revolution to increase 225%, or $5.2 billion in the most recent quarter, by purchasing an additional 1.5 million shares of Arcturus Therapeutics, keeping its weighting at 4.7%. She added 7 million shares of Pacific Biosciences of California, raising its weighting to 7.1% from 5.6%, and boosted Twist Bioscience by 1.4 million shares, pushing its weighting to 5.9% from 4.7%. She reduced her Invitae Corp. holding to 3.6% of the fund from 12% and cut Crispr Therapeutics to 6.2% from 8%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

All of which proved her prowess for dynamic and transparent investing to the extent her ARK Innovation ETF, the second-best performer among the 367 funds this year with a total return of 159%, dethroned JPMorgan in December as the largest actively managed ETF. Among ARK Innovation's top three holdings, Palo Alto-based Tesla Inc. appreciated 696% this year and contributed 39 percentage points to the fund's performance; Roku Inc., the San Jose internet media company gained 154%, or 11 percentage points, and Crispr, 9 percentage points.

 

Wood is best known for championing Tesla soon after launching Ark seven years ago when more than 60% of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg were bearish on the maker of zero-emission, battery-electric vehicles. She made Tesla No. 1, or 10% of the fund, in 2018. She still considers it undervalued as legacy automakers lose money on their EVs, while Tesla becomes increasingly profitable because of its battery and chip technology.

 

Asked earlier this month what's it like having one of the best years in the history of money management, Wood told Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker on the Front Row program:

 

“The coronavirus created a tremendous number of problems, and our portfolios are all about solving problems, and our investors have been rewarded for helping to solve some of the world's most profound problems. I love bringing to life new ways of looking at the world, helping people understand how the world is going to change not only in their investment portfolios but also in their own lives, their children's lives, their grandchildren's lives — helping them understand how to move everyone to the right side of change and really benefit from the exponential growth trajectories that are just taking off now.”

 

(With assistance from Shin Pei, Brian Pennisi.)

 

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

 

To contact the author of this story:

Matthew A. Winkler at mwinkler@bloomberg.net

 

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Katy Roberts at kroberts29@bloomberg.net