Thursday, September 16, 2021

Kids Mental Health - POLITICO's Global Insider: Up close and personal with Linda Thomas-Greenfield - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

POLITICO's Global Insider: Up close and personal with Linda Thomas-Greenfield - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

... THE KIDS ARE NOT ALRIGHT #1 — CLIMATE ANXIETY: The first major study of climate anxiety in children, soon to be published in the The Lancet Planetary Health, surveyed 10,000 people aged 16 to 25 from four continents. The full report is available here.

The study’s lead author, University of Bath psychotherapist Caroline Hickman, said by email: “We didn't know how scared they were. We knew children's lives were affected on a daily basis but we didn't know how much this was affecting their eating, sleeping, playing. We knew this anxiety was affecting childrens’ thinking and cognition. What we did not know was how this correlated with beliefs about government action or inaction. We now know two-thirds of children believe governments are lying, failing and betraying them and future generations.”

THE KIDS ARE NOT ALRIGHT #2 — SCHOOL LOCKDOWNS MAY LEAD TO NEAR TOTAL LEARNING LOSS: I’m not a parent, so I can’t talk to you first-hand about what it was like to have kids stuck at home during Covid lockdowns. But any suspicions you have that digital-only learning failed your kids will be fueled by a new Dutch study of the learning outcomes of 350,000 students in 2020. It concludes that in some cases students effectively learn nothing during lockdown periods . The effects are, of course, worse for students from poorer backgrounds.

Monday, September 13, 2021

Biden’s ‘cradle to grave’ agenda - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Biden’s ‘cradle to grave’ agenda - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

DRIVING THE DAY

A busy week to start a busy month: Unemployment benefits have ended for millions of Americans … Biden visits storm-damaged areas of New Jersey and Queens today … House committees continue to work on the Dems’ reconciliation bill in advance of a Sept. 15 deadline … The Producer Price Index , a key measure of inflation, is released Friday … The 20th anniversary of 9/11 is Saturday

WHAT TO WATCH THIS MONTH: One challenge in covering the Dems’ $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill is conveying the sheer enormity of it.

Nobody really even knows what to call it. Is it a jobs package? A human infrastructure bill? A climate bill? Social welfare legislation? Yes.

Because Dems aim to pass into law every major domestic priority on which they can find agreement, it is all of those things and more.

The NYT’s Jonathan Weisman today has one of the better distillations of the breadth of this legislation by looking at its “cradle to grave” qualities and how they would affect the relationship between Americans and the federal government:

“[C]onsider a life, from conception to death. Democrats intend to fund paid family and medical leave” — see Tara’s take on this below — “to allow a parent to take some time off during pregnancy and after a child’s birth.

“When that parent is ready to return to work, expanded funding for child care would kick in to help cover day care costs. When that child turns 3, another part of the bill, universal prekindergarten, would ensure public education can begin at an earlier age, regardless of where that child lives.

“Most families with children would continue to receive federal income supplements each month in the form of an expanded child tax credit …

“And at high school graduation, most students would be guaranteed two years of higher education through expanded federal financial aid, geared toward community colleges.

“Even after that, income supplements and generous work force training programs — including specific efforts to train home health and elder-care workers — would keep the government present in many adult lives. In old age, people would be helped by tax credits to offset the cost of elder care and by an expansion of Medicare to cover dental, hearing and vision services.”

Even this description doesn’t capture the bill’s ambitions when it comes to policies on taxes, climate and immigration.

While previous Democratic administrations shied away from emphasizing the “government” part of new government benefits, members of the White House staff are embracing it.

“If we get this passed, a decade from now, people are going to see many more touch points of government supporting them and their families,” HEATHER BOUSHEY, one of President JOE BIDEN’s top economists, tells Weisman.

Before Democrats pass any of this, they will need to deal with the September Scylla and Charybdis of keeping the government open after annual funding bills expire Oct. 1 and raising the debt limit.

There will be an enormous amount of parliamentary intrigue about how they navigate around those two legislative monsters, and we’ll be watching it carefully for you. (Take a shot every time you read “high-stakes political gamesmanship.”)

But we don’t believe a Democratic Congress and president will allow a government shutdown or a debt default. How Biden, Speaker NANCY PELOSI and Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER find the votes will be interesting, but keep your eye on what’s more important: the substance of the reconciliation bill, which is what this Congress will be remembered for.

Grisham dishes on Melania - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Grisham dishes on Melania - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

... #BEBEST — Sometimes it seems that everything has already been said about the Trump years though not everyone has said it.

In the latter camp is STEPHANIE GRISHAM, the former Trump White House press secretary best known for never holding a press briefing.

Now Grisham is breaking her silence, and POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman emails us with a scoopy preview of her forthcoming tell-all:

At 1:25 p.m. on Jan. 6, soon after rioters had broken through barricades outside of the Capitol, MELANIA TRUMP received a text message from her then-chief of staff, STEPHANIE GRISHAM.

“Do you want to tweet that peaceful protests are the right of every American, but there is no place for lawlessness and violence?” Grisham asked the first lady.

A minute later, Melania replied with a one-word answer: “No.” At that moment, she was at the White House preparing for a photo shoot of a rug she had selected, according to exclusive excerpts of Grisham’s forthcoming book, “I’ll Take Your Questions Now: What I Saw in The Trump White House,” obtained by POLITICO.

Grisham, a years-long Trump loyalist who resigned within hours of that text exchange, also writes that she asked Melania a couple times whether she should reach out to JILL BIDEN during the transition to set up the traditional inauguration tea. But instead of setting up the meeting, Melania told her that they should “see what the West Wing does.” The reason, according to Grisham: Melania, like her husband, believed the election was illegitimate.

A statement provided by the office of Melania Trump said: “The intent behind this book is obvious. It is an attempt to redeem herself after a poor performance as press secretary, failed personal relationships, and unprofessional behavior in the White House. Through mistruth and betrayal, she seeks to gain relevance and money at the expense of Mrs. Trump.” (Her mention of “failed personal relationships” appears likely to be a reference to Grisham’s past relationship with former Trump aide MAX MILLER . Citing three people familiar with the incident, POLITICO Magazine reported in July that the relationship “ended when he pushed her against a wall and slapped her in the face in his Washington apartment after she accused him of cheating on her.” He denied the allegation.)

On Jan. 11, Melania did issue a statement saying she was “disappointed and disheartened with what happened last week.” But she added that she found it “shameful that surrounding these tragic events there has been salacious gossip, unwarranted personal attacks, and false misleading accusations on me — from people who are looking to be relevant and have an agenda.” She seemed to be referring to her former close friend STEPHANIE WINSTON WOLKOFF, who penned an op-ed in the Daily Beast a few days earlier arguing that Melania “was complicit in the destruction of America.”

Grisham joined the Trump campaign in 2015 and, despite her misgivings, remained with the White House until close to the end. She writes that Melania’s response to her text on Jan. 6 “broke” her since she had long defended the first lady against accusations that she was a Marie Antoinette-type dilettante.

Now, Grisham writes, she sees Melania like “the doomed French queen. Dismissive. Defeated. Detached.”

Though it shouldn’t be a huge surprise that Melania stood by her husband on important questions like the election, Grisham writes in the book that she was “shocked” to learn that Melania seemed to share DONALD TRUMP’s view that the election was rigged.

Melania told Grisham that “something bad happened” and that the election results weren’t legitimate. She didn’t listen to Grisham when she tried to explain to her that there are small irregularities in all elections but there was no grand conspiracy to unfairly remove Trump from office, according to the book.

Grisham’s book is scheduled to be released on Oct. 5.

A publishing source said that “Stephanie knows she’s stirred up a hornet’s nest with this book.” It includes potentially unflattering nuggets about other officials with whom Grisham tangled during her time in the White House, according to the source. Among them are JARED KUSHNER and MARK MEADOWS, who removed her as White House press secretary, the person said.

“Stephanie has secrets about Trump that even the first lady doesn’t know,” the source said. “Secrets that he doesn’t want her to know. They will be in this book.”

Since news of the book broke late last week, numerous Trump-world figures have contacted Grisham to see how they are depicted in the book or to offer private messages of support, according to the source. Grisham, who is very familiar with how the Trumps operate, is also bracing for a potential smear campaign and legal fight if anyone sues to try to prevent publication. She knows, the source said, that there’s a hunt on to try to get a copy of the book to the Trumps; she’s received calls from people she barely knows asking for an early copy.

Sunday, September 12, 2021

Labor Shortage Feedback - Brook Sutherland - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

The earnings crunch is getting real - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Labor Shortage Feedback

Thanks to everyone who sent responses to the question posed in my last newsletter about why the U.S. labor shortage may be uniquely worse than other parts of the world. The comments were very thoughtful and I appreciated hearing your perspectives. Here are some of the best ideas and comments I received:

  • The U.S. puts too much emphasis on four-year college degrees as the gold standard. This creates a negative aura around careers in manual labor. There’s a false perception that brick masons and electricians — jobs that require a significant amount of technical skill and are usually well-paid — are somehow inferior to people who push papers around a desk simply because the latter group spent more time in a classroom. In a social-media obsessed world, these image problems may matter more than they used to. Other countries do a better job promoting vocational training. 
  • Unions traditionally played a major role in establishing and organizing apprenticeship programs that provided a reliable pipeline of U.S. workers to manufacturing companies. The decline of unions in the U.S. weakened that infrastructure and companies haven’t done enough to replace it.
  • Not all Covid stimulus is the same. While U.S. airlines got special payroll protection dispensation, manufacturers were free to lay off workers as they pleased during the pandemic and many of them did so in abundance. Enhanced unemployment insurance helped cushion the financial blow but the nature of the aid also meant there was nothing tying workers to their former position. It doesn’t take much of a mental leap to think that workers cast aside during the crisis weren’t eager to return to the same company, or even the same industry. In contrast, other countries crafted pandemic assistance in a way that kept workers connected to their employer and in a position to be called back as the economy rebounded. 
  • Younger workers want more flexibility. A 9-to-5 job on a manufacturing line can’t compete with the explosion of money-making opportunities in the gig economy and through social media. These may not be the most stable or well-paying jobs, but they allow people to set their own hours, and that may mean more to the younger generation.
  • Marijuana use may be keeping otherwise eligible workers from joining the manufacturing labor force. As more states legalize pot, removing this from drug screenings could help in the hiring process. Amazon.com Inc. is reportedly betting on this as a way to ease the current shortage of delivery drivers. The e-commerce giant found that screening for marijuana use reduces the prospective worker pool by up to 30%, whereas dropping this from the application process (and advertising the change) can boost the number of interested candidates by as much as 400%, according to correspondence reviewed by Bloomberg News. 



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Saturday, September 4, 2021

Cultural Revolution 2.0 - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Cultural Revolution 2.0 - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

... Xi’s revolution is top-down: the last thing he wants is chaos on the streets.

What does he intend, then? As my Bloomberg colleague Malcolm Scott reports, the pilot project for the economic future Xi imagines is Zhejiang province, one of the wealthiest parts of China (incomes there are approaching levels in southern Europe) and a hotbed of private enterprise. Zhejiang is also Xi’s power base; he was party secretary there before ascending to higher office in Beijing.

The evidence from Zhejiang suggests that on economic matters Xi is not Mao, in the sense that he wants to redirect the energies of entrepreneurs, not eliminate them as a class. The emphasis is on state control.