Tuesday, March 9, 2010

One Year Into Bull Market, Economists Divided Over Future - WSJ.com

WHAT ISN'T BEING DISCUSSED: One Year Into Bull Market, Economists Divided Over Future - WSJ.com:

"It would seem as though more attention should be being paid to the impact of government fiscal policy on jobs and profits and corporate prospects in the US vs. other countries.

It would seem as though the US is like a family that still has some credit on its bank cards and as it spends, it ignores the fact that its income doesn't cover its spending and lifestyle.

A question would be as to how this is going to all end. Obama seems to think (with Congress) that running up the government credit card can go on relatively indefinitely.

But, as every family knows, eventually the bank raises the interest rate and just paying minimum monthly credit card payments can severely crimp the family budget. In every other way also, high credit card debt constrains the family.

As such, most economists already recognize that job growth will be subpar. And, if these restraints on job growth can be directly attributed to government fiscal policies, then these will have an outsize impact on the entire economy (which eventually is what is reflected in stock prices).

Under Reagan and Bush, tax cuts supported job growth. Obama's budget deficits and union-centric policies, with all of the projected tax increases do not support job growth or investment.

I'd say the potential macro- situation trumps and econometric statistical projections of stock prices (as discussed in the above article)"

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