Stocks Skid on Fresh Economic Worries - WSJ.com

ECONOMETRIC MODELS REQUIRE THE RIGHT INPUT DATA - BUT IS THERE MUCH FROM THE 19TH c?: Stocks Skid on Fresh Economic Worries - WSJ.com: "- Sent using Google Toolbar"

It seems interesting how wrong most prognosticators and their models have become of late; but, perhaps not surprising. After all, most of the data they use comes from the 20th century or the last decade.

But, it is interesting how Donlan writes in this weeks Barrons an opinion piece suggesting that the current period is more akin to the 19th century when people moved off of farms to work in industry; and, that the current period (in the US) has a similar push to get better educated and take on non-industrial labor jobs.

Additionally of course, there is the fact that while the push to make Donlan's suggested changes has been going on for perhaps 30 years or more, the efforts on the part of governments and unions has been to push back against such changes, thus distorting the data streams that feed the econometric forecasting models being used.

We also seem to have fiscal policies that are so counter- and anti-change, with the dreamy belief that monetary policy can on its own cure all ills.

It's hard to know what the next steps will be, but to date, we seem to be seeing the results of more wrong moves on the policy front and only a November election offering even a glimmer of a change (see also the Fouad Ajami opinion piece about Obama in today's WSJ).