Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Rising Rates Fuel Boomlet in Buyouts - WSJ.com

DIFFERENT THIS TIME? MAYBE SOMEONE CAN ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS: Rising Rates Fuel Boomlet in Buyouts - WSJ.com

The question that would seem reasonable to keep in the forefront of one's thinking would be the situation in the 1970's in which Fed share of GDP over 19% or so was credited with the 'stag' part of stagflation.

While some are lauding the lack of inflation in the US right now - i.e. the 'flation' part of the above - others credit CPI adjustments coming from housing (rent) as holding down the number.

An unadjusted number for CPI is clearly evident in China.

What does all this portend? Obviously there are differing points of view.

Some see the economy turning around (but what about the GDP % of 25 vs. 19?)

Some see no inflation (but there are the questions).

So, if things are 'really different' this time, can someone explain what the differences might be? (It would seem as though the production numbers now equal to 2007 but with some 15% greater unemployment (approx.21 - 5) now vs. then, would suggest we've had stunning productivity gains; or, we've subtantially increased the amount of capital behind each job (thus to create new jobs for some of the 21% unemployed or underemployed will take a lot more capital; etc.).

The questions just keep coming and the answers stay hidden or few.

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