Perhaps the biggest issue for macro funds seems to be an overreliance on narrative. The underlying investment thesis is a story. To work, it must follow a series of twists and turns that unfold in a very specific way, on a very specific timeline. Compare that with value investing, which is much more math-driven because it relies on mean reversion. A reliance on mathematics is also true for quant funds.
And that's the trouble with macro. Large, potentially destabilizing events are unpredictable. Reactions to subsequent chains of unanticipated of reactions and counter-reactions are also inherently unknowable
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