Toyota Plans California Fuel Cell Plant to Make Power, Hydrogen - Bloomberg
...The Tri-Gen system from FuelCell Energy Inc. will convert waste materials including manure from California farms into hydrogen, electricity and water. This hydrogen will be used in vehicles including the fuel-cell-powered Class 8 trucks that Toyota is testing now in short-distance fleets that run back and forth between the Long Beach docks and nearby warehouses operated by retailing giants.
...FuelCell Energy, based in Danbury, Connecticut, gained 2.5 percent to $1.67 at 12:33 p.m. in New York.
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Outside the Box - McKinsey: Automation may wipe out 1/3 of America’s workforce by 2030 - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox/mckinsey-automation-may-wipe-out-1-3-of-americas-workforce-by-2030#
But this time, it’s not young people leaving farms, but mid-career workers who need new skills. “There are few precedents in which societies have successfully retrained such large numbers of people,” the report says, and that is the key question: how do you retrain people in their 30s, 40s and 50s for entirely new professions?
=> potential impact on housing as people have to sell when lose their jobs
But this time, it’s not young people leaving farms, but mid-career workers who need new skills. “There are few precedents in which societies have successfully retrained such large numbers of people,” the report says, and that is the key question: how do you retrain people in their 30s, 40s and 50s for entirely new professions?
=> potential impact on housing as people have to sell when lose their jobs
U.S. Home Shortage Eases in 2018, Realtors Say; Home Prices Next? - Bloomberg
U.S. Home Shortage Eases in 2018, Realtors Say; Home Prices Next? - Bloomberg
The shortage of listings that has defined the U.S. home sales market in recent years will begin to ease in the second half of 2018, according to a new report, but not before setting a record for consecutive months of decline....
...Florida metros occupy half the slots on Realtor.com’s list of areas where prices will grow the most next year....
....I think it will be a three-year recovery process to get back to normal,” Hale said. “We’re still going to be in a shortage situation in much of the country.”
The shortage of listings that has defined the U.S. home sales market in recent years will begin to ease in the second half of 2018, according to a new report, but not before setting a record for consecutive months of decline....
...Florida metros occupy half the slots on Realtor.com’s list of areas where prices will grow the most next year....
....I think it will be a three-year recovery process to get back to normal,” Hale said. “We’re still going to be in a shortage situation in much of the country.”
Monday, November 27, 2017
Right, Left, and Macron
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/macron-economic-reform-right-left-politics-by-zaki-laidi-2017-11?utm_source=Project+Syndicate+Newsletter&utm_campaign=3cb5da1806-sunday_newsletter_26_11_2017&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-3cb5da1806-93854061
...In an innovation-oriented economy that is now funded by capital rather than debt, the wealth tax had become a historical handicap, thwarting French industry and entrepreneurship.
...In an innovation-oriented economy that is now funded by capital rather than debt, the wealth tax had become a historical handicap, thwarting French industry and entrepreneurship.
In Greenwich and Manhattan, Tax-Hike Fears Fuel Talk of Exodus - Bloomberg
In Greenwich and Manhattan, Tax-Hike Fears Fuel Talk of Exodus - Bloomberg
...When Tepper moved his firm to Florida, forecasters warned it could jeopardize New Jersey’s budget because the firm generated more than $100 million in state income tax.
In 2013, state income tax generated by residents of seven of the wealthiest towns in Fairfield County amounted to $1.8 billion, according to the Hartford Courant, or about 9 percent of the Connecticut state budget.
...When Tepper moved his firm to Florida, forecasters warned it could jeopardize New Jersey’s budget because the firm generated more than $100 million in state income tax.
In 2013, state income tax generated by residents of seven of the wealthiest towns in Fairfield County amounted to $1.8 billion, according to the Hartford Courant, or about 9 percent of the Connecticut state budget.
The iPhone X: Apple’s Ideology of American Techno-Exceptionalism
The iPhone X: Apple’s Ideology of American Techno-Exceptionalism
...Expectations were that the iPhone would at least catch up to, if not surpass, the bezel-less OLED-based flagship phones already offered by Samsung (the S8 and the Note 8) and LG (V30). It’s clear that by keeping its LCD platform around for another lifecycle, Apple effectively conceded that it could not produce an OLED iPhone in sufficient quantities, nor at a reasonably competitive price.
...Expectations were that the iPhone would at least catch up to, if not surpass, the bezel-less OLED-based flagship phones already offered by Samsung (the S8 and the Note 8) and LG (V30). It’s clear that by keeping its LCD platform around for another lifecycle, Apple effectively conceded that it could not produce an OLED iPhone in sufficient quantities, nor at a reasonably competitive price.
The reason for this is no secret: Apple doesn’t actually make OLED displays, and relies on its main competitor Samsung for its supply. This gives Samsung a deep competitive advantage as the market shifts towards OLED as the standard by allowing it to limit supply and control prices for perhaps the most important smartphone component. Despite nearly limitless amounts of money, Apple simply does not have the technology it needs to compete in the global marketplace....
...The primary issue of why the iPhone can’t be made by Americans is because America has no city that can rival the sheer technological ability of Shenzhen.Just across the Chinese border from Hong Kong, Shenzhen is known as “the world’s workshop.” It is the global capital of hardware technology innovation. If Foxconn is Apple’s Taiwanese-outsourced manufacturing cathedral, then it can only operate while embedded within Shenzhen’s futuristic, hyperdense, and mostly family-run electronics bazaar.
Sunday, November 26, 2017
Shale Is Confounding Everybody, But Never Mind - Bloomberg Gadfly
Shale Is Confounding Everybody, But Never Mind - Bloomberg Gadfly
...Forecasting output growth used to be a relatively simple undertaking. Developing oil fields had a lead time of several years and the flow of new oil coming from them was reasonably visible over a 12-month horizon.
...Forecasting output growth used to be a relatively simple undertaking. Developing oil fields had a lead time of several years and the flow of new oil coming from them was reasonably visible over a 12-month horizon.
Now, lead times are measured in weeks rather than years for new shale projects, and the large number of companies operating in the sector have made forecasting oil output growth almost impossible.
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
Hydrogen: The next wave for electric vehicles? | McKinsey & Company
Hydrogen: The next wave for electric vehicles? | McKinsey & Company
...18 companies in the automotive, oil and gas, industrial gas, and equipment industries—presented its vision of how hydrogen can contribute to the ambitious climate targets. It considers hydrogen an enabler of the transition to a renewable-energy system and a clean-energy carrier for a wide range of applications. If serious efforts are made to limit global warming to 2 degrees, the council estimates that hydrogen could contribute around one-fifth of the total abatement need by 2050.
Hydrogen can play seven major roles in the energy transformation
...18 companies in the automotive, oil and gas, industrial gas, and equipment industries—presented its vision of how hydrogen can contribute to the ambitious climate targets. It considers hydrogen an enabler of the transition to a renewable-energy system and a clean-energy carrier for a wide range of applications. If serious efforts are made to limit global warming to 2 degrees, the council estimates that hydrogen could contribute around one-fifth of the total abatement need by 2050.
Hydrogen can play seven major roles in the energy transformation
..By 2050, the members of the council believe hydrogen-powered fuel-cell vehicles could constitute up to 20 percent of the total vehicle fleet, some 400 million cars, 15 million to 20 million trucks, and around 5 million buses. In their scenario, hydrogen would play a larger role in heavier and long-range segments
Tuesday, November 21, 2017
Monday, November 20, 2017
Pre-Seed Venture Aims To Help Startups Do More With Less - Crunchbase News
Pre-Seed Venture Aims To Help Startups Do More With Less - Crunchbase News
What exactly is pre-seed? Since the round type is still new and evolving, there’s not yet a concrete definition of what defines a pre-seed firm. But industry observers say seed rounds today closely resemble what Series A funding looked like five to 10 years ago in terms of round size and valuation. So, it’s probably safe to say that pre-seed capital is what seed funding was 10 years ago.
...investors aren’t putting as much into seed rounds as they used to – thus leaving a hole attempting to be filled by this new breed of “pre-seed” firms.
What exactly is pre-seed? Since the round type is still new and evolving, there’s not yet a concrete definition of what defines a pre-seed firm. But industry observers say seed rounds today closely resemble what Series A funding looked like five to 10 years ago in terms of round size and valuation. So, it’s probably safe to say that pre-seed capital is what seed funding was 10 years ago.
...investors aren’t putting as much into seed rounds as they used to – thus leaving a hole attempting to be filled by this new breed of “pre-seed” firms.
To fill the gap, a handful of funds have recently formed to exclusively invest in the new and evolving “pre-seed” stage: Afore Capital, XFactor Ventures, K9 Ventures, Notation Capital, and Precursor Ventures.
...In setting up their fund, the founders performed an analysis of more than 180 unicorn companies—startups valued at over $1 billion—and their earliest funding rounds. They found that, in the U.S., more than one-third of those unicorns started with rounds that today would be considered pre-seed level, including Uber ($200,000), Airbnb ($620,000), Stripe ($120,000), Lyft ($300,000), and Pinterest ($600,000).
...Afore’s aim is to institutionalize that angels, friends, and family round.
...“Today a seed round is more like $3 million... “The cost of scaling has increased while the cost of starting has decreased.
...companies that are able to raise less than $1 million with a concrete product roadmap and distribution make for more robust companies when they get to the seed stage,”
Sunday, November 19, 2017
student loan issues - The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia
The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia
Twenty states suspend people’s professional or driver’s licenses if they fall behind on loan payments, according to records obtained by The NePublish Postw York Times.
Twenty states suspend people’s professional or driver’s licenses if they fall behind on loan payments, according to records obtained by The NePublish Postw York Times.
How Politics and Bad Decisions Starved New York’s Subways - The New York Times
How Politics and Bad Decisions Starved New York’s Subways - The New York Times
...he problems plaguing the subway ... might have been avoided if decision makers had put the interests of train riders and daily operations ahead of flashy projects and financial gimmicks....
...Century-old tunnels and track routes are crumbling, but The Times found that the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s budget for subway maintenance has barely changed, when adjusted for inflation, from what it was 25 years ago.
...but hundreds of mechanic positions have been cut because there is not enough money to pay them — even though the average total compensation for subway managers has grown to nearly $300,000 a year.
Daily ridership has nearly doubled in the past two decades to 5.7 million, but New York is the only major city in the world with fewer miles of track than it had during World War II. Efforts to add new lines have been hampered by generous agreements with labor unions and private contractors that have inflated construction costs to five times the international average.
...both Republican and Democratic politicians — governors from George E. Pataki to Mr. Cuomo and mayors from Rudolph W. Giuliani to Bill de Blasio. Each of them cut the subway’s budget or co-opted it for their own priorities.
...he problems plaguing the subway ... might have been avoided if decision makers had put the interests of train riders and daily operations ahead of flashy projects and financial gimmicks....
...Century-old tunnels and track routes are crumbling, but The Times found that the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s budget for subway maintenance has barely changed, when adjusted for inflation, from what it was 25 years ago.
...but hundreds of mechanic positions have been cut because there is not enough money to pay them — even though the average total compensation for subway managers has grown to nearly $300,000 a year.
Daily ridership has nearly doubled in the past two decades to 5.7 million, but New York is the only major city in the world with fewer miles of track than it had during World War II. Efforts to add new lines have been hampered by generous agreements with labor unions and private contractors that have inflated construction costs to five times the international average.
...both Republican and Democratic politicians — governors from George E. Pataki to Mr. Cuomo and mayors from Rudolph W. Giuliani to Bill de Blasio. Each of them cut the subway’s budget or co-opted it for their own priorities.
They stripped a combined $1.5 billion from the M.T.A. by repeatedly diverting tax revenues earmarked for the subways and also by demanding large payments for financial advice, I.T. help and other services that transit leaders say the authority could have done without.
They pressured the M.T.A. to spend billions of dollars on opulent station makeovers and other projects that did nothing to boost service or reliability, while leaving the actual movement of trains to rely on a 1930s-era signal system with fraying, cloth-covered cables....
...Faced with funding shortfalls, the M.T.A. has resorted to borrowing. Nearly 17 percent of its budget now goes to pay down debt ...
...Byzantine layers of bureaucracy have allowed transit leaders and politicians to avoid responsibility for problems.
But the theme that runs through it all is a perennial lack of investment in tracks, trains and signals....
...While the M.T.A., the sprawling organization that operates the New York subway and bus lines, two commuter railroads and several bridges, is run by the state, the subway is owned by the city. ...funding battles.
...New York real estate values — and property tax revenues — have quintupled since the early 1990s, according to the Independent Budget Office....
...Under Mr. Pataki, the state eliminated subsidies for the M.T.A., opting to make the authority rely entirely on fares, tolls and revenue from taxes and fees earmarked for transit. It also ended state funding for capital work.
...The remaking of the Fulton Street station ...In the end, the project cost $1.4 billion — more than the total annual budget of Chicago’s rapid transit system — and did nothing to improve the subway’s signals or tracks....
...2008 ... revenue from a real estate transfer tax plunged by 75 percent — leaving the authority scrambling to deal with a $1 billion drop in revenue.
Soaring Salaries
Members of the Transport Workers Union got a total of 19 percent in pay raises between 2009 and 2016, compared with 12 percent for the city’s teachers union over the same period.
The labor contracts also gave members lifetime spousal health benefits and free rides on the Metro-North and the Long Island Rail Road...
...The pay for managers is even more extraordinary. The nearly 2,500 people who work in New York subway administration make, on average, $280,000 in salary, overtime and benefits. The average elsewhere is $115,000....
...Several M.T.A. officials involved in negotiating recent contracts said that there was one reason they accepted the union’s terms: Mr. Cuomo.
The governor, who is closely aligned with the union and has received $165,000 in campaign contributions from the labor group, once dispatched a top aide to deliver a message, they said....
Friday, November 17, 2017
Thursday, November 16, 2017
Tesla Unveils ‘World’s Fastest Production Car’ and Electric Big Rig - Bloomberg
Tesla Unveils ‘World’s Fastest Production Car’ and Electric Big Rig - Bloomberg
...The Semi truck going into production in 2019 will boast 500 miles of range, a battery and motors that will last 1 million miles and cheaper total operating costs than diesel models, Tesla’s chief executive officer said. The Roadster, available a year later, will be the fastest production car ever made, he said...
...The Semi truck going into production in 2019 will boast 500 miles of range, a battery and motors that will last 1 million miles and cheaper total operating costs than diesel models, Tesla’s chief executive officer said. The Roadster, available a year later, will be the fastest production car ever made, he said...
Mugabe - Today's WorldView from The Washington Post
Today's WorldView from The Washington Post
Is this how Africa’s most venerable dictator falls?
Robert Mugabe has ruled Zimbabwe for so long that his time in power has to be seen as metaphor. He came to global prominence with the winds of history at his back, but he now looks poised to exit the world stage as a frail and faded anachronism. Few remaining active politicians better capture the arc of 20th-century politics, and no sitting autocrat better illustrates the tragic, brutal path that revolutions can take.
On Wednesday, it grew increasingly clear that Mugabe's 37-year-long reign was nearing its end. Over the course of the day (and the preceding night), military vehicles had fanned across the capital city of Harare. A state broadcaster was seized. In some instances, gunfire was exchanged between soldiers and security forces attached to prominent ministers. The Zimbabwean president was said to be “safe,” though reports suggested he had been placed under a form of house arrest. Military officials insisted that what was taking place was not a coup, but rather an operation aimed at “targeting criminals” around Mugabe.
Many people weren't convinced. "'The President is safe' is a classic coup catch-phrase,” Naunihal Singh, author of a recent book on military coups, wrote on Twitter. “No, I expect a transition in the next few days, whether dejure or defacto.” Alpha Condé, the president of Guinea and current head of the African Union, told reporters on Wednesday eveningthat the upheaval in Zimbabwe “seems like a coup” and urged “constitutional order to be restored immediately.” At the time of writing, it was not clear whether Mugabe would be forced to formally resign.
In the last decade or so, Mugabe has seen various challenges to his authority, ranging from a mobilized and dogged opposition to spontaneous street protests over the country's disastrous economy. But the challenge that seems to have finally brought him down comes from within the ruling establishment.
A 2016 photo of Grace Mugabe and Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa in Harare, Zimbabwe. (Philimon Bulawayo/Reuters)
As my colleagues report, Zimbabwe’s political crisis reached a boiling point last week with the dismissal of Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa. That cleared the way for Grace Mugabe, Mugabe's wife and also a vice president, to succeed him. Mugabe accused Mnangagwa of “disloyalty, disrespect and deceitfulness.”
Despite years of kleptocratic rule and the brutal repression of dissent, Mugabe still derives legitimacy from his past as an anti-colonial revolutionary and his leadership in the guerrilla war that ended white rule in the country. He was once a lion of the decolonized world, greeted rapturously in 1980 on a visit to the United States. “It's been a long time since any political figure has been able to penetrate the cynicism of Harlem,” reported The Post then as crowds of New Yorkers came out to greet the Zimbabwean leader.
But Mugabe's ruthless consolidation and abuse of power led to new traumas for his country. Various heavy-handed attempts at economic reform, including the expropriation of white-owned land, harmed his people more than they helped. His wife, Grace, became a walking symbol of elite graft, while Mugabe himself kept spouting the bromides of an anti-imperial past even as the world changed rapidly around him.
“It now seems Ms. Mugabe's impatience to sideline Mnangagwa was a calamitous miscalculation. Zimbabwe's security forces, long loyal to Robert Mugabe, have made it clear through their takeover that they find the possibility of a Mugabe dynasty, led by Grace, to be repulsive,” wrote my colleague Max Bearak. “The Mugabes may have also underestimated Mnangagwa's thirst for power, and the depth of his connections with the military. He is known as one of the most cunning politicians in Zimbabwe, and has been designing his ascendance for decades.”
Mnangagwa, a longtime apparatchik in Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party, built a network of influence among Harare's political class and top military brass, including senior figures associated with the independence struggles of the 1960s and '70s. Faced with the choice of who should succeed Mugabe, the country's military leadership, including army chief Gen. Constantino Chiwenga, sided against the president's wife.
Young women walk past a military vehicle at an intersection in Harare, Zimbabwe, on Nov. 15. (Jekesai Njikizana/Agence France-Presse via Getty Images)
There's some optimism around Mugabe's potential departure. “Many leaders in the region (and perhaps further afield) will probably acquiesce to a quick and relatively bloodless transfer of power,” noted the Economist. “They see Mr Mnangagwa as a pragmatist and point out that he has spoken of the need for Zimbabwe to reconcile with the West, reform its economy and offer compensation to white farmers who were chased off their land by Mr Mugabe.”
“We are happy that we are going to have another leader,” said one man in Harare, who gave his name as Yemurai, to my colleagues on Wednesday. “Even if it’s going to be another dictator, we accept a new one. Look, we are jobless, hungry and poverty-stricken. All we want is something different.”
But Mnangagwa is no reformist democrat. Nicknamed “the crocodile” because of his political scheming, he is a comrade of Mugabe's from the liberation struggle and has been a fixture in the Zimbabwean state since its full independence. He's closely associated with the massacres of thousands of innocent civilians in the region of Matabeleland during a period of civil strife in the late 1980s.
And even if Mnangagwa turns out to be an improvement on Mugabe, simply swapping autocrats won't be enough for many. “It is a phase that Africa should accept — mistaken policies, mistaken positions — but it's a phase all the same,” Morgan Tsvangirai, a prominent opposition leader who even defeated Mugabe in the first-round of 2008 elections only to withdraw from the runoff amid threats of violence, told me six years ago. “What these nationalists and liberators created was one-man rule, family dynasties. We can't have that in Africa if it's going to be accepted as part of the democratic and prosperous future.”
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Hear Eugene F. Fama weigh in on the subprime mortgage meltdown (Chicago Booth Review
In the wake of the 2007–10 financial crisis, the US federal government created new regulations concerning the behavior of banks. But Booth's Eugene F. Fama says that the government itself played a significant role in creating the crisis by insuring risky loans in the hopes of boosting home ownership. Watch him explain.
(link)
http://review.chicagobooth.edu/public-policy/2017/video/eugene-f-fama-governments-role-subprime-mortgage-meltdown?source=aa-em-cbn-november-20171115&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTUdSaE1ERTVOamMwTlRRNSIsInQiOiJQWmh1eHhXRXV2MWRRWnhtaE5CZitadDZCTnYyTG85M1RhYnpxODhkNm9HWmttUGlUNndzYW11TnE2YjZrOVwvSVVXbEhPa1wvcFFYNHZzK0s5UFVcL1N0WFBMajVxekY5MmtZUmdicDVLTWpwZU45TjRxZGdOTllmdFFXSytnd1lpNiJ9
(link)
http://review.chicagobooth.edu/public-policy/2017/video/eugene-f-fama-governments-role-subprime-mortgage-meltdown?source=aa-em-cbn-november-20171115&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTUdSaE1ERTVOamMwTlRRNSIsInQiOiJQWmh1eHhXRXV2MWRRWnhtaE5CZitadDZCTnYyTG85M1RhYnpxODhkNm9HWmttUGlUNndzYW11TnE2YjZrOVwvSVVXbEhPa1wvcFFYNHZzK0s5UFVcL1N0WFBMajVxekY5MmtZUmdicDVLTWpwZU45TjRxZGdOTllmdFFXSytnd1lpNiJ9
Small Colleges Can Save Towns in Middle America - Bloomberg
Small Colleges Can Save Towns in Middle America - Bloomberg
...Meanwhile, U.S. leaders look determined to make life much harder for the country's universities. The tax reform plan now being put forward by congressional Republicans contains big cuts to higher-education funding. It eliminates tax credits and deductions that students use to help pay for college. And it makes certain kinds of financial aid taxable -- for example, tuition waivers, which help graduate students eke out a meager living while they get their advanced degrees. Besides putting college out of reach for some, it would force many remaining students to borrow more, thus exacerbating the student loan problem.
...Meanwhile, U.S. leaders look determined to make life much harder for the country's universities. The tax reform plan now being put forward by congressional Republicans contains big cuts to higher-education funding. It eliminates tax credits and deductions that students use to help pay for college. And it makes certain kinds of financial aid taxable -- for example, tuition waivers, which help graduate students eke out a meager living while they get their advanced degrees. Besides putting college out of reach for some, it would force many remaining students to borrow more, thus exacerbating the student loan problem.
These cuts -- about $65 billion during the next decade -- would force universities to cut costs and tighten their belts. But they would also crush the nation's Pikevilles. The Ivy League universities and big flagship state schools would survive, but many smaller colleges in more vulnerable regions would be devastated. The same struggling working-class regions that Donald Trump promised to save during his campaign would find one more path to a brighter future cut off....
Bitcoin's High Transaction Fees Show Its Limits - Bloomberg
Bitcoin's High Transaction Fees Show Its Limits - Bloomberg
...As Bitcoin's exchange rate rose rapidly and more people wanted to get in on the boom, getting into blocks became difficult, and miners prioritize transactions on which users are willing to pay a higher fee. It works a bit like Uber's surge pricing, except the user sets the fee based on how long she's prepared to wait for the transaction to go through -- using one of several sites that link fees to waiting times or show median and average fees.
...As Bitcoin's exchange rate rose rapidly and more people wanted to get in on the boom, getting into blocks became difficult, and miners prioritize transactions on which users are willing to pay a higher fee. It works a bit like Uber's surge pricing, except the user sets the fee based on how long she's prepared to wait for the transaction to go through -- using one of several sites that link fees to waiting times or show median and average fees.
At the time of this writing, the median fee paid to process the median transaction -- 226 bytes of information -- was 171,760 satoshis, or 0.0017176 Bitcoin, or $11.38. If you just want to pay for a cup of coffee or order something relatively inexpensive on an e-commerce site without waiting many hours for the transaction to clear, this is uneconomical....
Bezos, Musk Have Different Ideas About How to Pay for Space Race
Bezos, Musk Have Different Ideas About How to Pay for Space Race
Jeff Bezos has sold $4 billion of Amazon.com Inc. stock in the past three years, including $1.1 billion just last week, using most of the money to support his space company, Blue Origin LLC.
That sets its business model apart from other billionaire-backed space ventures, Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp. and Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic, which have both taken outside funding and moved more quickly to commercialize operations.
...Selling stock to fund his operations means Bezos, 53, could face $200 million in capital-gains taxes on last week’s transactions. He told a space conference in April that he sells about $1 billion of Amazon stock each year to fund Blue Origin.
But with shares of the Seattle-based retailer on a tear, Bezos has more to burn than just rocket fuel. Last month, he overtook Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates as the world’s richest person, and ended Monday with a net worth of $95.1 billion, according to the Bloomberg index.
Tuesday, November 14, 2017
Credit Suisse Says It's Time to Feel Sorry for the Millennials - Bloomberg
Credit Suisse Says It's Time to Feel Sorry for the Millennials - Bloomberg
...Comparisons with the baby boomers may not be strictly fair, but the report notes that millennials are doing less well than their parents at the same age, especially in relation to income, and home ownership. Their pension outlook is also worse than that of preceding age cohorts.
...Comparisons with the baby boomers may not be strictly fair, but the report notes that millennials are doing less well than their parents at the same age, especially in relation to income, and home ownership. Their pension outlook is also worse than that of preceding age cohorts.
“On the whole, they are not what one would call a lucky generation,”...
Connecting the Dots - The Tax Trade Is Getting Crowded - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
Connecting the Dots - The Tax Trade Is Getting Crowded - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
...For instance, here’s a bit from the Wall Street Journal’s analysis of the House plan.
...For instance, here’s a bit from the Wall Street Journal’s analysis of the House plan.
Take a simplified example of $2 million, received at the relevant top rates, by five different people: a salaried executive; the owner-operator of a manufacturer; an investor receiving dividends; a passive business owner, such as one who has a stake in a real-estate property; and an heir from a large estate.
Under the GOP plan, the executive would pay $868,000 in taxes, according to a rough calculation by Tony Nitti, of WithumSmith + Brown, an accounting firm. The manufacturer pays $704,400, but might be able to argue her way into a lower bill. The passive business owner pays $576,000. The dividend-earning investor pays $476,000. The heir to the estate pays nothing. The manufacturer, the estate and the passive owner all get big tax cuts from the GOP plan. The investor and the wage earner generally don’t.
So, five different wealthy people who make $2 million would pay anywhere from zero up to $868,000 in taxes, depending on occupational and investment decisions they made years ago and can’t possibly change now.
Remove the inheritance, since it’s probably a one-time event, and the range is still $476,000 to $868,000 for the same amount of income.
Wealthforge Reg. A b/d Offering Process Info
https://www.wealthforge.com/insights/wealthforge-debuts-first-regulation-a-offering-with-new-investor-workflow?utm_campaign=Reg%20A&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=58422187&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--09Kh6NMGI2vsJT-cwvpYAK95uD3yIG92k6V54Pxhe-NOxCb_SE68nVlm7OuKi94jIzIXr1nz7ZgsrZ5WiOvcPfOYYUw&_hsmi=58422187
Immigrants flock to found US startups - Crunchbase Daily: Quoine, Graphcore, OPSkins, Glue Home, Malong, Tmeng.cn - November 13, 2017 - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
Crunchbase Daily: Quoine, Graphcore, OPSkins, Glue Home, Malong, Tmeng.cn - November 13, 2017 - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
Immigrants flock to found US startups
Over half of U.S. startups valued at $1 billion or more had at least one immigrant founder. But it’s not just a trend among unicorns. Crunchbase News reached out to foreign-born founders hailing from Iraq, Senegal and Brazil to chronicle their experiences building up earlier stage U.S. startups.
Monday, November 13, 2017
Remaking the bank for an ecosystem world | McKinsey
Remaking the bank for an ecosystem world | McKinsey
...Global banking-industry performance has been lackluster. Now comes the hard part: the rise of nonbanking platform companies targeting the most profitable parts of the banking value chain.
...“Platform” companies such as Alibaba, Amazon, and Tencent—about which we’ll have more to say later—are staking a claim to banks’ customers and the revenues and profits they represent.
...Global banking-industry performance has been lackluster. Now comes the hard part: the rise of nonbanking platform companies targeting the most profitable parts of the banking value chain.
...“Platform” companies such as Alibaba, Amazon, and Tencent—about which we’ll have more to say later—are staking a claim to banks’ customers and the revenues and profits they represent.
Sunday, November 12, 2017
Central Banks in the Dock by Barry Eichengreen - Project Syndicate
Central Banks in the Dock by Barry Eichengreen - Project Syndicate
...by allowing the central bank, in extremis, to monetize budget deficits...
...by allowing the central bank, in extremis, to monetize budget deficits...
Saturday, November 11, 2017
The Distribution of Pain - Maudlin / Ray Dalio
http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/171110_TFTF2.pdf
...This likely-unrecoverable debt also appears as an asset on some lender’s balance sheet. It ends up
being sold as asset-backed securities, possibly to a mutual fund or pension fund near you. And it’s
generally in the high-yield category, with leverage on it.
At the risk of repeating the obvious, debt that can’t be repaid won’t be. Somebody will eat the loss;
the only question is who. Banks managed to socialize much of their losses in the last recession. I’m
not sure that plan will work a second time...
One Nation, Two Labor Markets
...One of the things I am realizing is that there is a distinction between what we have seen as the
working class and what I am coming to see as the service class.
A working-class person is
somebody who has a trade, and because of their skill, they can generally command a decent
income.
Then there is the service class – bar and restaurant workers, retail salespeople, general manual
laborers, and so on. These jobs are almost plug-and-play....
... because of the Obamacare
mandate, if you are a business with more than 50 employees, you simply cannot afford to have
full-time employees; so you resort more and more to part-time positions, which do not allow a
worker to earn an adequate wage.
...Health care being number one of the worry list? I think a large part of that is the fact that young
people are required to buy ridiculously expensive health insurance packages in order to subsidize a
sick elderly population....
...We are a nation that is increasingly under stress. Dalio talks about it in terms of the bottom 60%
versus the top 40%, but he could have made the same case using an 80–20 model or even a 90–10
model. I am reminded of Pareto’s 80/20 principle, which states that roughly 80% of effects come
from 20% of causes...
...This likely-unrecoverable debt also appears as an asset on some lender’s balance sheet. It ends up
being sold as asset-backed securities, possibly to a mutual fund or pension fund near you. And it’s
generally in the high-yield category, with leverage on it.
At the risk of repeating the obvious, debt that can’t be repaid won’t be. Somebody will eat the loss;
the only question is who. Banks managed to socialize much of their losses in the last recession. I’m
not sure that plan will work a second time...
One Nation, Two Labor Markets
...One of the things I am realizing is that there is a distinction between what we have seen as the
working class and what I am coming to see as the service class.
A working-class person is
somebody who has a trade, and because of their skill, they can generally command a decent
income.
Then there is the service class – bar and restaurant workers, retail salespeople, general manual
laborers, and so on. These jobs are almost plug-and-play....
... because of the Obamacare
mandate, if you are a business with more than 50 employees, you simply cannot afford to have
full-time employees; so you resort more and more to part-time positions, which do not allow a
worker to earn an adequate wage.
...Health care being number one of the worry list? I think a large part of that is the fact that young
people are required to buy ridiculously expensive health insurance packages in order to subsidize a
sick elderly population....
...We are a nation that is increasingly under stress. Dalio talks about it in terms of the bottom 60%
versus the top 40%, but he could have made the same case using an 80–20 model or even a 90–10
model. I am reminded of Pareto’s 80/20 principle, which states that roughly 80% of effects come
from 20% of causes...
Thursday, November 9, 2017
Saudi Arabia Is Putinizing, Not Modernizing - Bloomberg
Saudi Arabia Is Putinizing, Not Modernizing - Bloomberg
...As in Russia and China, however, people around the throne who don't line their pockets are viewed with more suspicion than those who do...
...As in Russia and China, however, people around the throne who don't line their pockets are viewed with more suspicion than those who do...
What If Taxes Could Make Divorce Even More Painful? - Bloomberg
What If Taxes Could Make Divorce Even More Painful? - Bloomberg
my comment:
my comment:
Interesting piece. I'd take it a bit further re: income and expense. Why not let all salary income people deduct the expense of domestic labor? As a financial advisor, I saw lots of women stop working because 2 high incomes were too highly taxed and with children, elderly parents, whatever, this would be a way to provide lots of low skilled jobs. What do you think?
Cheers
"The tax code says that income should be taxed -- and in order to keep us from taxing the same bit of income over and over until the entire economy collapses into dust, it also says that whoever provides that income should be allowed an offsetting expense."
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Connecting the Dots - Tariffs on Your Roof - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
Connecting the Dots - Tariffs on Your Roof - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
...Experts interviewed by IBT estimate it takes about nine years for an imported solar panel installed on a US roof to recover the greenhouse gas emissions involved in manufacturing and transporting it....
...So none of the solutions are perfect—trade policy rarely is. But I think this one points to a larger economic trend: localization.
Photo: Getty Images
...Experts interviewed by IBT estimate it takes about nine years for an imported solar panel installed on a US roof to recover the greenhouse gas emissions involved in manufacturing and transporting it....
...So none of the solutions are perfect—trade policy rarely is. But I think this one points to a larger economic trend: localization.
Tariffs or not, solar-panel manufacturing will probably return to the US anyway. Trade sanctions will just speed it up by a few years. Cheap Asian labor no longer has the competitive advantage it used to have.
Photo: Getty Images
Factory robots don’t care where you put them. They cost about the same and work equally hard on either side of the Pacific.
As automation continues, I think we’ll see manufacturing of all kinds move closer to the customer. Speed is replacing scale as the differentiator.
Sunday, November 5, 2017
“What Will the Next Crisis Look Like?” Liquidity Risks - Maudlin Outside the Box
http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/OTB_Nov_03_2017.pdf
... the next crisis will reveal how little liquidity there
is in the credit markets, especially in the high-yield, lower-rated space. Dodd–Frank has greatly limited
the ability of banks to provide market-making opportunities and credit markets, a function that has been
in their wheelhouse for well over a century. Given the massive amount of high-yield bonds that have been
stuffed into mutual funds and ETFs, when the prices of those funds begin to fall, and the ETFs want to sell
the underlying assets to generate liquidity, there will be no buyers except at extreme prices.
...As the saying goes, when you need money in a crisis, you sell what
you can, not what you want to. And if you can’t sell your high-yield, you end up selling other assets (like
equities), which puts strain on them.
What Will the Next Crisis Look Like?
By Marko Kolanovic, PhD, and Bram Kaplan
October 3, 2017
...Central banks purchased ~$15T of
financial assets, mostly government obligations. This accommodation is now expected to reverse, starting
meaningfully in 2018. Such outflows (or lack of new inflows) could lead to asset declines and liquidity
disruptions, and potentially cause a financial crisis. We will call this hypothetical crisis the “Great Liquidity
Crisis” (GLC)....
... the main attribute of the next crisis will be severe liquidity disruptions resulting from market
developments since the last crisis:
> specifically the decline of active value investors, reduces the ability of the market to prevent
and recover from large drawdowns.
> The ~$2T rotation from active and value to passive and
momentum strategies since the last crisis eliminated a large pool of assets that would be standing
ready to buy cheap public securities and backstop a market disruption.
> Tail Risk of Private Assets: Outflows from active value investors may be related to an increase
in Private Assets (Private Equity, Real Estate and Illiquid Credit holdings). Over the past two
decades, pension fund allocations to public equity decreased by ~10%, and holdings of Private
Assets increased by ~20%. Similar to public value assets, private assets draw performance from
valuation discounts and liquidity risk premia. Private assets reduce day-to-day volatility of a
portfolio, but add liquidity-driven tail risk. Unlike the market for public value assets, liquidity in
private assets may be disrupted for much longer during a crisis.
> Increased AUM of strategies that sell on ‘Autopilot’....
> ... The model of liquidity provision changed in a close analogy to the
shift from active/value to passive/momentum. In market making, this has been a shift from human
market makers that are slower and often rely on valuations (reversion), to programmatic liquidity
that is faster and relies on volatility-based VAR to quickly adjust the amount of risk taking
(liquidity provision)...
> Miscalculation of portfolio risk: Over the past 2 decades, most risk models were (correctly)
counting on bonds to offset equity risk. At the turning point of monetary accommodation, this
assumption will most likely fail. This increases tail risk for multi-asset portfolios...
> Valuation Excesses: Given the extended period of monetary accommodation, most of assets are at
their high end of historical valuations ... Sign
of excesses include multi-billion dollar valuations for smartphone apps or for ‘initial crypto- coin
offerings’ that in many cases have very questionable value.
... If the standard rate cutting and bond purchases
don’t suffice, central banks may more explicitly target asset prices (e.g., equities). This may be controversial
in light of the potential impact of central bank actions in driving inequality between asset owners and
labor (e.g., see here). Other ‘out of the box’ solutions could include a negative income tax (one can call this
‘QE for labor’), progressive corporate tax, universal income and others....technology companies... In many possible
outcomes, inflation is likely to pick up....
... social tensions that are likely to be amplified in the next
financial crisis.
... the next crisis will reveal how little liquidity there
is in the credit markets, especially in the high-yield, lower-rated space. Dodd–Frank has greatly limited
the ability of banks to provide market-making opportunities and credit markets, a function that has been
in their wheelhouse for well over a century. Given the massive amount of high-yield bonds that have been
stuffed into mutual funds and ETFs, when the prices of those funds begin to fall, and the ETFs want to sell
the underlying assets to generate liquidity, there will be no buyers except at extreme prices.
...As the saying goes, when you need money in a crisis, you sell what
you can, not what you want to. And if you can’t sell your high-yield, you end up selling other assets (like
equities), which puts strain on them.
What Will the Next Crisis Look Like?
By Marko Kolanovic, PhD, and Bram Kaplan
October 3, 2017
...Central banks purchased ~$15T of
financial assets, mostly government obligations. This accommodation is now expected to reverse, starting
meaningfully in 2018. Such outflows (or lack of new inflows) could lead to asset declines and liquidity
disruptions, and potentially cause a financial crisis. We will call this hypothetical crisis the “Great Liquidity
Crisis” (GLC)....
... the main attribute of the next crisis will be severe liquidity disruptions resulting from market
developments since the last crisis:
> specifically the decline of active value investors, reduces the ability of the market to prevent
and recover from large drawdowns.
> The ~$2T rotation from active and value to passive and
momentum strategies since the last crisis eliminated a large pool of assets that would be standing
ready to buy cheap public securities and backstop a market disruption.
> Tail Risk of Private Assets: Outflows from active value investors may be related to an increase
in Private Assets (Private Equity, Real Estate and Illiquid Credit holdings). Over the past two
decades, pension fund allocations to public equity decreased by ~10%, and holdings of Private
Assets increased by ~20%. Similar to public value assets, private assets draw performance from
valuation discounts and liquidity risk premia. Private assets reduce day-to-day volatility of a
portfolio, but add liquidity-driven tail risk. Unlike the market for public value assets, liquidity in
private assets may be disrupted for much longer during a crisis.
> Increased AUM of strategies that sell on ‘Autopilot’....
> ... The model of liquidity provision changed in a close analogy to the
shift from active/value to passive/momentum. In market making, this has been a shift from human
market makers that are slower and often rely on valuations (reversion), to programmatic liquidity
that is faster and relies on volatility-based VAR to quickly adjust the amount of risk taking
(liquidity provision)...
> Miscalculation of portfolio risk: Over the past 2 decades, most risk models were (correctly)
counting on bonds to offset equity risk. At the turning point of monetary accommodation, this
assumption will most likely fail. This increases tail risk for multi-asset portfolios...
> Valuation Excesses: Given the extended period of monetary accommodation, most of assets are at
their high end of historical valuations ... Sign
of excesses include multi-billion dollar valuations for smartphone apps or for ‘initial crypto- coin
offerings’ that in many cases have very questionable value.
... If the standard rate cutting and bond purchases
don’t suffice, central banks may more explicitly target asset prices (e.g., equities). This may be controversial
in light of the potential impact of central bank actions in driving inequality between asset owners and
labor (e.g., see here). Other ‘out of the box’ solutions could include a negative income tax (one can call this
‘QE for labor’), progressive corporate tax, universal income and others....technology companies... In many possible
outcomes, inflation is likely to pick up....
... social tensions that are likely to be amplified in the next
financial crisis.
Lonity - It's The Daily Crunch. - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
Electric car charging remains one of the larger barriers to its broad adoption, but now a number of the top automakers have teamed up to create a new company called Ionity to equip Europe with a network of high-capacity charging stations. Good news for the industry in general.
Saturday, November 4, 2017
Friday, November 3, 2017
Immigration Service Sued for Sitting on Investor Visas - Update on
Immigration Service Sued for Sitting on Investor Visas - Update on
...The approval process relies on government approval of the solar plant as a recognized foreign investment. Investors can apply for an EB-5 visa only after such approval.
... In March this year, USCIS announced it would hold immigration applications until the projects related to their investments were approved. According to its website, USCIS today is reviewing projects filed in November 2015.
...The approval process relies on government approval of the solar plant as a recognized foreign investment. Investors can apply for an EB-5 visa only after such approval.
... In March this year, USCIS announced it would hold immigration applications until the projects related to their investments were approved. According to its website, USCIS today is reviewing projects filed in November 2015.
Thursday, November 2, 2017
Tax Bill May Deal Body Blow to LBOs - Bloomberg Gadfly
Tax Bill May Deal Body Blow to LBOs - Bloomberg Gadfly
... cap interest deductibility at 30 percent of adjusted taxable income, a dramatic shift from the 100 percent allowed now.
...exempt from this change, but the definition of this seems to be companies with gross receipts of not more than $5 million.
... cap interest deductibility at 30 percent of adjusted taxable income, a dramatic shift from the 100 percent allowed now.
...exempt from this change, but the definition of this seems to be companies with gross receipts of not more than $5 million.
Covenant Lite - PE KeyTrends - PE-Backed Deals Hit Highest Level Since 2007 - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
PE KeyTrends - PE-Backed Deals Hit Highest Level Since 2007 - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
...COVENANT-LITE AT RECORD, AS U.S. LEVERAGE GUIDANCE IS ELIMINATED. Issuance of covenant-lite leveraged loans, which place few restrictions on borrowers and are used to finance private equity purchases, achieved a record as a percentage of leveraged credit in the bellwether U.S. market in the first nine months of the year. Covenant-lite accounted for an unprecedented 72.9 percent of all U.S. leveraged loans, or $690 billion out of outstanding issuance of $947 billion, also a record amount
...COVENANT-LITE AT RECORD, AS U.S. LEVERAGE GUIDANCE IS ELIMINATED. Issuance of covenant-lite leveraged loans, which place few restrictions on borrowers and are used to finance private equity purchases, achieved a record as a percentage of leveraged credit in the bellwether U.S. market in the first nine months of the year. Covenant-lite accounted for an unprecedented 72.9 percent of all U.S. leveraged loans, or $690 billion out of outstanding issuance of $947 billion, also a record amount
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