...The average entrepreneur lacks the specific domain expertise and access to huge pools of capital necessary to bring new, more high-tech ventures involving AI, virtual reality, and other domains to fruition. The level of technical sophistication required to build a mobile app or website is much lower than building a drone delivery network. But those massive technological movements have now lost their head of steam.
... for Uber and Lyft’s collective share of the VC funding into US-based public transportation and ride-sharing startups would look very similar. (However, on a global scale, companies like Didi Chuxing, Ola, and others have garnered a large chunk of funding as well.)
... the first and second wave of startup gold rushes have served to create the very incumbents that new startups have to find a way to compete against....Over time, as more and more market niches are filled, there are fewer and fewer opportunities for new startups to enter the market.
... a small handful of companies get the most traction, and those with traction will receive the bulk of future fundings in the sector. Very rarely does the dark horse contender go on to be the champion...If the majority of a new market goes to a tiny handful of companies, there’s little benefit to betting on the also-rans.
It’s best to look at these numbers directionally, not literally. For many reasons, there are reporting delays in venture capital deals, especially for seed and early-stage rounds. But to reiterate a point from last week, even if actual seed and early-stage deal volume is the same today as it was at the beginning of 2012 (e.g. at that 100 percent level on the chart), it’s still significantly off from mid-cycle highs.
...If Evans is right, the deepest pools of technological opportunity – AI, VR/AR, autonomous vehicles, and drones. – may be oases, but not for startups. So don’t be surprised if there’s a dry spell.
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