Pension Fund Crisis Has a Start Date - Bloomberg

Pension Fund Crisis Has a Start Date - Bloomberg



...This brings us back to the recent decline in the stock market. This commentary uses 2016 pension fund data. Most pension funds use a June 30 fiscal year, so fourth-quarter calendar 2018 results will be reported in late 2019 or 2020. The two major aggregations of the thousands of fund reports will be published in mid-2021. If stocks continue down to the point that a major state passes the tipping point to crisis, the crisis will be well advanced before we see it in aggregate pension financial reports.



...The state and local pension crisis has passed from a long-term actuarial crisis to a medium-term cash flow crisis. Forget about liability projections and aggregated national numbers. Look at the least responsible big states and focus on asset values, inflows and outflows. That’s where disaster will force a new regime.