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Part I: Paradigms and Paradigm Shifts over the Last 100 Years
History has taught us that there are always paradigms and paradigm shifts and that understanding and positioning oneself for them is essential for one’s well-being as an investor and beyond. The purpose of this piece is to show you market and economic paradigms and their shifts over the past 100 years to convey how they work. In the accompanying piece, “The Coming Paradigm Shift,” I explain my thinking about the one that might be ahead.
...big paradigm shifts have always happened and they happened for roughly the same reasons....due to a sequence of actions and reactions by policy makers, investors, business owners, and workers.
The projected returns of cash are below the projected returns of bonds, which are below the projected returns of equities and the projected returns of other “risky assets” (because the failure of these spreads to exist will impede the effective growth of credit and other forms of capital, which will cause the economy to slow down or go in reverse, while wide spreads will cause it to accelerate).
...we built a balanced All Weather portfolio designed to hold relatively stable though the big undulations by being well-diversified and built a Pure Alpha portfolio to make tactical timing moves.
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more negative real and nominal returns that will lead investors to increasingly prefer alternative forms of money (e.g., gold) or other storeholds of wealth.
...too much debt and non-debt liabilities (e.g., pension and healthcare liabilities) remains, the other forms of easing (most obviously, currency depreciations and fiscal deficits that are monetized) will become increasingly likely.
...looking at who has what assets and liabilities, asking yourself who the central bank needs to help most
and figuring out what they are most likely to do given the tools they have at their disposal, you can get at the most likely monetary policy shifts, which are the main drivers of paradigm shifts.
...I believe that monetizations of debt and currency depreciations will eventually pick up, which will reduce the value of money and real returns for creditors and test how far creditors will let central banks go in providing negative real returns before moving into other assets.
providing historically low returns relative to cash returns
...those that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold.
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