💡 Axios AM: Trump's demographic problem - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

💡 Axios AM: Trump's demographic problem - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

1 big thing: Trump's demographic problem

Data: AP. Chart: Axios Visuals If America were dominated by old, white, election-denying Christians who didn't go to college, former President Trump would win the general election in as big of a landslide as his sweep of the first four GOP contests. Why it matters: It's not. That's why some top Republicans are worried about the general election in November, despite Trump's back-to-back-to-back-to-back wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Trump was declared the winner of yesterday's South Carolina's Republican Party the second that polls closed — trouncing Nikki Haley by 20 points (60% to 40%) in the state where she was governor. "The primary ends tonight," the Trump campaign announced, even though he can't officially clinch the nomination until next month.  By the numbers: Trump wins with older white voters without college diplomas who believe the last election was rigged, according to network exit polls and AP VoteCast, which interviewed 2,440 South Carolina primary voters over five days. Where he won: Two-thirds of Trump voters were white and didn't go to college. (VoteCast) Three-quarters of those without a college degree went for Trump. (CNN) 83% of "angry" voters backed Trump. (ABC) Where he lost: 75% of Haley supporters correctly said Biden was legitimately elected president in 2020 (about 40% of them voted for Biden). (VoteCast) A stunning 62% of Republican primary voters said Biden wasn't legitimately elected. (NBC) Screenshot: MSNBC Those who went to the polls reflected Trump's strengths: This was the oldest South Carolina GOP electorate this century. (Chuck Todd) 60% of primary voters were white evangelical or born-again Christians. (CNN)  Reality check: That group isn't remotely big enough to win a presidential election. He would need to attract voters who are more diverse, more educated and believe his first loss was legit. South Carolina exit polls show he didn't do that. That's why Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the Senate's only Black Republican, remains on Trump's short list for V.P. A bigger problem yet: Polls show these skeptics would be even less likely to swing his way if he's convicted of a crime — a real possibility among his four ongoing cases, insiders tell us. The strategy: Trump's campaign says that in the battleground states where the election will be decided, his message will appeal far beyond the GOP base that propelled him to the nomination. "This is going to be a referendum against Joe Biden and his policies," a top Trump adviser tells us. "As long as Trump can tap into voter disillusion about the economy, out-of-control immigration, and more foreign entanglements, those are issues that affect people from all backgrounds."  Between the lines: Trump can't scare off swing voters as he works to scare them away from Biden by warning — as he did yesterday at CPAC — of bloodshed, tyranny, crime and violence if the president is re-elected. Share this story.

2.  Haley vows to stay in

Nikki Haley talks to reporters after voting yesterday on Kiawah Island, S.C. At right is Haley's mother, Raj Randhawa. Photo: Meg Kinnard/AP With no wins (and none in sight), Nikki Haley vowed to stay in the Republican primary after an embarrassing double-digit blow in her home state yesterday. Why it matters: Her path forward looks increasingly far-fetched, Axios' Erin Doherty writes. Haley congratulated the former president during remarks after her projected loss and reaffirmed her vow to stay in the race. "I am a woman of my word," she said. "I'm not giving up this fight when the majority of Americans disapprove of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden." "I'm grateful that today is not the end of our story," she said, adding that she is heading to Michigan today before Tuesday's primary. On the ground: Outside a voting location at Satchel Ford Elementary school outside of Columbia, there were more yard signs for local down-ballot candidates than there were for Nikki Haley or former President Trump, Axios' Sophia Cai reports from South Carolina.