One of his big bets in 2024 is “Prime Air,” Amazon’s new-wave drone delivery service that he says will eventually allow the e-commerce company to deliver packages to customers in less than an hour. While there’s certainly a need to fulfill here — human laziness has no bounds! — Leticia Miranda says there are a few problems with the methodology:
Amazon’s drones can only carry orders that weigh up to five pounds, and items can’t be too fragile because they need to survive a 12-foot drop … A 2023 McKinsey study estimates that a single-package drone delivery costs a company about $13.50, which is more expensive than delivery via an electric or gas vehicle making just one delivery. For drones to make a company money, a single operator will have to manage as many as 20 drones at one time.
Twenty drones!!! Consider, for a moment, what that might mean for your town. Wendy’s and DoorDash are currently testing a drone program in Christiansburg, Virginia, that can deliver Baconators, Frosty, french fries and even chili in “30 minutes or less.” But do we really want 20 drones whizzing around at 60 mph carrying CHILI of all things? I can hear the EMS radio dispatcher now: “Unit 5, Unit 5, we have a report of a vehicle with obstructed vision due to an aerial spillage of Wendy’s chili on the windshield. Respond to the intersection of Main and Elm.”
Not to mention, drones are loud! This 2021 study described them as being “substantially more annoying” than your average airplane or traffic jam. In the future, we’ll still need lots and lots of humans to deliver stuff. But if this chart from Justin Fox is any measure, it’s *not* looking like the US working-age population is up to the task:
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