Ending A Catastrophe for
Ukraine and Russia
Ed D’Agostino // Partner & COO, Mauldin Economics
George Friedman // Author & Strategist, Geopolitical Futures
Ed D'Agostino:
George Friedman, it's always good to see you in what I would've called unprecedented times. But before we started rolling, you indicated that maybe this isn't so unprecedented. Set the
stage for us. What's going on here with our new president?
George Friedman:
At times of historical crisis, presidents come in looking to violate the norm because the norm is
unsustainable, and they appear to be nearly criminals. When the immigrants started coming to
the United States in the early 19th century, Andrew Jackson decided to change the population
structure of Georgia. The Supreme Court said he couldn't. He said, "Well, the Supreme Court
orders this. Let them enforce it."
Franklin Roosevelt had the hundred days. Why a hundred days? Because he saw a massive
banking crisis, and he saw that he had to massively restructure the banking system. And if he
waited a hundred days, Congress would get involved, and he wanted to beat that. And he had
the famous hundred days for which he was called a dictator, for which the columnist said he
was completely unqualified for this office, that he's breaking all norms. And yes, he was
breaking our norms, where the norms were unsustainable.
Personalities aside, and Trump has a strange personality, this is the moment that America had
to have this president. I didn't vote for him, but now I think I understand him. He is trying to
disrupt America because it's unsustainable. He's now trying to disrupt the world because it's
unsustainable, and that's where we are now. The United States has great power. When the
president decides to do this, he no longer just does it to the banking system. The whole world
explodes.
Ed D'Agostino:
So that sets the stage.
George Friedman:
Okay.
Ed D'Agostino:
Let's talk about what's happening as you and I speak literally, and this is Wednesday the 19th,
and this will air Friday the 21st. So who knows what will happen in between? But right now, we
have a war in Ukraine that is in the process of being potentially settled through a negotiation.
You've called this war a failure from Putin's perspective. Do you still feel that way, and if so,
why?
George Friedman:
It was a catastrophe. The Russian army in three years could not overrun what is virtually a thirdrate country. It failed. It cost the Russians massive lives, massive positions in the world, and
massive amounts of money, and he has nothing to show for it. This has weakened his political
position in Russia substantially. There's unrest in Siberia. There are things being written, raising
the question of what he's doing. He, Putin, is in political trouble. The way he formulates it is
that he's the great victor and aggressor, but now willing to settle on something reasonable on
his terms. Well, this is what politicians do, turn failure into success. But the idea that Russia is a
great power is gone. If they can't beat Ukraine, who's the next player, Armenia? They are not
players, and Trump has realized this.
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