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Sunday, August 23, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Beveridge Curves - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Beveridge Curves - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail
Saturday, August 22, 2020
New Antibody Tests Offer Better Snapshot of Covid-19 Immunity - Bloomberg
New Antibody Tests Offer Better Snapshot of Covid-19 Immunity - Bloomberg
...Until now, antibody tests have been typically looked for evidence of a range of antibody types, including generally fast-appearing but short-lived ones and another kind that shows up later but provides longer protection.
...Until now, antibody tests have been typically looked for evidence of a range of antibody types, including generally fast-appearing but short-lived ones and another kind that shows up later but provides longer protection.
Healthineers’ new test zeroes in on the latter. Once an organization like the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine determines what level of these antibodies is needed to confer immunity, researchers will be able to see who needs a vaccine, a booster shot or nothing at all.
...T cells can kill virus-infected cells, while memory cells linger for years, ready to re-populate the body with both weapons if the virus returns.
..presence of antibodies targeting the nucleocapsid that surrounds the coronavirus’s nucleic acids.
However, research has shown that the most protective antibodies are those that target the spike protein that enables the virus to enter cells. Most vaccine developers are coming up with shots inducing the body to make spike protein-related antibodies,
...Roche’s quantitative test focuses on spike-protein antibodies. The company will then be able to use both of its antibody tests together, a potential benefit since a small percentage of people develop antibodies against either the spike or the nucleocapsid, not both.
Lambda School raises $74M for its virtual coding school where you pay tuition only after you get a job | TechCrunch
Lambda School raises $74M for its virtual coding school where you pay tuition only after you get a job | TechCrunch
...Lambda School, which runs virtual nine- and 18-month (part time) computer science courses for $30,000 — currently covering data science and full-stack web development — with payments for the course based on a sliding scale that only kicks in after you land a job that makes at least $50,000, has raised $74 million in equity in a Series C round.
...He also said that he hopes that this will be the last funding that Lambda raises, not because it’s planning an IPO but because it’s aiming to become profitable. Allred confirmed that is not the case yet.
...more demand than we can handle right now, even with the fundraise,” he said. “I don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing.”
...Lambda School, which runs virtual nine- and 18-month (part time) computer science courses for $30,000 — currently covering data science and full-stack web development — with payments for the course based on a sliding scale that only kicks in after you land a job that makes at least $50,000, has raised $74 million in equity in a Series C round.
...He also said that he hopes that this will be the last funding that Lambda raises, not because it’s planning an IPO but because it’s aiming to become profitable. Allred confirmed that is not the case yet.
...more demand than we can handle right now, even with the fundraise,” he said. “I don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing.”
Currently there are about 3,000 students enrolled, all taking live (not on-demand) classes according to timetables programmed for different timezones. All the classes are set up on a specific personalised basis, with labs to extend your learning and “live” projects to put you in the middle of the kind of work that you would be expected to do with the skills your’re picking up.
...“From a regulatory standpoint we could receive accreditation and grant degrees but [boards] require you to submit changes to curriculum a year in advance and our students can’t afford that. Things like that are a nonstarter until the accrediting bodies change their requirements,” he said, and added that schools that have accreditation are not always better than this.
“There are thousands of schools fully accredited that have a 20% graduation rate,” he said. “It doesn’t make you good. We have to prove our worth to students in other ways, usually through outcomes.”
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
What a 1982 Turmeric Forgery Says About India’s Courts - Bloomberg
What a 1982 Turmeric Forgery Says About India’s Courts - Bloomberg
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is eager to convince global
companies and investors that India is a business-friendly alternative to China.
A top court ruling this summer told another story, highlighting the infamous
judicial delays that threaten to stymie businesses and scuttled deals.
companies and investors that India is a business-friendly alternative to China.
A top court ruling this summer told another story, highlighting the infamous
judicial delays that threaten to stymie businesses and scuttled deals.
The Supreme Court ended the 38-year saga of an alleged
turmeric forger, who was arrested in 1982 and, eventually, sentenced to a month
in jail and a 500 rupee ($6.70) fine. After a decade, the top court reversed
his conviction; the two lower courts took around 14 years each to render
verdicts.
turmeric forger, who was arrested in 1982 and, eventually, sentenced to a month
in jail and a 500 rupee ($6.70) fine. After a decade, the top court reversed
his conviction; the two lower courts took around 14 years each to render
verdicts.
The lifespan of the turmeric case is extreme but not unique
among the nearly 40 million cases pending across the country’s three-tiered
judicial system. Among cases in 25 state high courts, roughly 173,000 have been
pending for more than 20 years, and roughly half of those for more than 30,
government data showed.
among the nearly 40 million cases pending across the country’s three-tiered
judicial system. Among cases in 25 state high courts, roughly 173,000 have been
pending for more than 20 years, and roughly half of those for more than 30,
government data showed.
The World Bank ranks India in the top one-third of countries
for overall ease-of-doing-business, but when it comes to enforcing contracts --
a measure of legal efficiency -- the south Asian nation lands in the bottom
15%, worse than Pakistan, Syria and Senegal.
for overall ease-of-doing-business, but when it comes to enforcing contracts --
a measure of legal efficiency -- the south Asian nation lands in the bottom
15%, worse than Pakistan, Syria and Senegal.
“It’s pretty incredible,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of
economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore. “The complexity, the
unnecessary delays -- it shows how India lags countries like China in their
judicial system and just how much further they have to go.”
economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore. “The complexity, the
unnecessary delays -- it shows how India lags countries like China in their
judicial system and just how much further they have to go.”
Clogged Courts
Over 38 million cases pending in three tiers of Indian
judiciary
judiciary
National Judicial Data Grid
Legal and compliance expenses of companies listed in India
increased to just over $3 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2018, up 57%
in five years, according to national business daily Mint. Judicial delays have
also tied up some of the country’s biggest corporations and would-be massive
deals:
increased to just over $3 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2018, up 57%
in five years, according to national business daily Mint. Judicial delays have
also tied up some of the country’s biggest corporations and would-be massive
deals:
IHH Healthcare Bhd’s attempt to take over hospital chain
Fortis Healthcare Ltd was scuttled by Daiichi Sankyo Co.’s four-year fight to
enforce a $500 million arbitration agreement against Malvinder Singh and
Shivinder Singh.
Fortis Healthcare Ltd was scuttled by Daiichi Sankyo Co.’s four-year fight to
enforce a $500 million arbitration agreement against Malvinder Singh and
Shivinder Singh.
After 10 years, the Indian Supreme Court directed the
provincial government in West Bengal to return land leased to Tata Motors
Ltd.’s back to local farmers.
provincial government in West Bengal to return land leased to Tata Motors
Ltd.’s back to local farmers.
A twenty-year dispute ended with a $19 billion judgment
against all the country’s telecom companies, including those that have
shuttered since the case began.
against all the country’s telecom companies, including those that have
shuttered since the case began.
The long time to resolution creates a lot of uncertainty for
foreign companies otherwise interested in doing business in India, said Souvik
Ganguly, Managing Partner at Mumbai-based Acuity Law. “Uncertainly makes
investors nervous,” Ganguly said, adding that India is “competing against a
Singapore, Thailand and other countries which are much faster to resolve
disputes.”
foreign companies otherwise interested in doing business in India, said Souvik
Ganguly, Managing Partner at Mumbai-based Acuity Law. “Uncertainly makes
investors nervous,” Ganguly said, adding that India is “competing against a
Singapore, Thailand and other countries which are much faster to resolve
disputes.”
Part of the backlog is a result of judicial vacancies. In 25
high courts, which hear most of the commercial disputes, 37% of judgeships were
vacant as of August 1, according to government data. In the lower district
courts, the most recent data identified a vacancy rate around 23%.
high courts, which hear most of the commercial disputes, 37% of judgeships were
vacant as of August 1, according to government data. In the lower district
courts, the most recent data identified a vacancy rate around 23%.
India’s law ministry told Parliament in 2019 that it is
coordinating with the judges of the Supreme Court and high court to fill up the
vacancies, and last week a panel of Supreme Court judges recommended 11 new
judges for appointments across three different high courts.
coordinating with the judges of the Supreme Court and high court to fill up the
vacancies, and last week a panel of Supreme Court judges recommended 11 new
judges for appointments across three different high courts.
Emails and phone messages seeking comment from the law
ministry remained unanswered.
ministry remained unanswered.
Monday, August 17, 2020
Why New Hotels Are Still Opening During the Pandemic - Bloomberg
Why New Hotels Are Still Opening During the Pandemic - Bloomberg
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Luxury Travel
Nearly 1,000 New Hotels Are Still Opening During the
Pandemic. Why?
Pandemic. Why?
The travel industry may be in survival mode, but some brave
brands are making the numbers work.
brands are making the numbers work.
By Sara Clemence
The new White Water hotel on California’s central coast has
a lot going for it: a location on a moonstone-studded beach, generously sized
rooms, and Scandinavian-inspired interiors by Los Angeles designer Nina
Freudenberger.
a lot going for it: a location on a moonstone-studded beach, generously sized
rooms, and Scandinavian-inspired interiors by Los Angeles designer Nina
Freudenberger.
Going against it? Oh, just the worldwide collapse of the
hospitality industry.
hospitality industry.
White Water is one of the thousands of hotels that have
either opened or will open in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to
hospitality data firm STR, occupancy rates dropped to below 30% across Europe
in March; numbers from M3, a firm that provides accounting services to hotels
across the U.S., show that domestic occupancy figures declined by half, even as
hotels slashed prices. It’s all part of a recession that the International
Monetary Fund in June predicted would hit $12.5 trillion in global
losses—almost 5% of the world’s gross domestic product.
either opened or will open in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to
hospitality data firm STR, occupancy rates dropped to below 30% across Europe
in March; numbers from M3, a firm that provides accounting services to hotels
across the U.S., show that domestic occupancy figures declined by half, even as
hotels slashed prices. It’s all part of a recession that the International
Monetary Fund in June predicted would hit $12.5 trillion in global
losses—almost 5% of the world’s gross domestic product.
That’s a grim picture for anyone starting a business of any
kind, much less one associated with high overheads and extreme sums of
underlying debt. Still Hilton opened 60
new hotels around the world in the second quarter of this year, while Marriott
has debuted 163 properties—including four Ritz-Carltons—since the start of
the year.
kind, much less one associated with high overheads and extreme sums of
underlying debt. Still Hilton opened 60
new hotels around the world in the second quarter of this year, while Marriott
has debuted 163 properties—including four Ritz-Carltons—since the start of
the year.
Even smaller, independent, and first-time hoteliers are
undeterred. The owners of beauty brand Fresh made their first foray into
hospitality this month with the opening of the 11-room Maker Hotel in New
York’s Hudson Valley; Nobu Hotels grew its portfolio by a third in recent
months with new properties in Chicago, London, and Warsaw; and PRG Hospitality
Group, which owns eight boutique hotels in California, including the White
Water, is about to cut the ribbon on its second summer debut. According to
industry site Tophotelnews, an additional 775
hotels are scheduled to open in the Americas alone by the end of 2020.
undeterred. The owners of beauty brand Fresh made their first foray into
hospitality this month with the opening of the 11-room Maker Hotel in New
York’s Hudson Valley; Nobu Hotels grew its portfolio by a third in recent
months with new properties in Chicago, London, and Warsaw; and PRG Hospitality
Group, which owns eight boutique hotels in California, including the White
Water, is about to cut the ribbon on its second summer debut. According to
industry site Tophotelnews, an additional 775
hotels are scheduled to open in the Americas alone by the end of 2020.
This might sound counterintuitive, with travel at a
near-standstill. But insiders say it makes sense.
near-standstill. But insiders say it makes sense.
For many new hotels, the decision to open is one that’s been
years—and millions of dollars—in the making. Deciding to cut the ribbon is like
the last leg of a too-expensive, too-long road trip: an inevitability, if you
want to get home.
years—and millions of dollars—in the making. Deciding to cut the ribbon is like
the last leg of a too-expensive, too-long road trip: an inevitability, if you
want to get home.
“A typical hotel project might take anywhere from two to five years to develop and open,”
says Sean Hennessey, a hotel consultant and professor at NYU’s Jonathan M.
Tisch Center of Hospitality. Including land, building costs can range from
several million dollars for a budget chain hotel to billions for a lavish
landmark. And maintaining a finished building comes with staffing costs that
might as well be allocated toward serving paying guests.
says Sean Hennessey, a hotel consultant and professor at NYU’s Jonathan M.
Tisch Center of Hospitality. Including land, building costs can range from
several million dollars for a budget chain hotel to billions for a lavish
landmark. And maintaining a finished building comes with staffing costs that
might as well be allocated toward serving paying guests.
Delaying operations is therefore, a costly proposition. “Even
if it’s unsuccessful at launch, a completed project is a heck of a lot more
valuable than an 80% completed one,” Hennessey adds. “You have to jump into
the fire and hope for the best.”
if it’s unsuccessful at launch, a completed project is a heck of a lot more
valuable than an 80% completed one,” Hennessey adds. “You have to jump into
the fire and hope for the best.”
For luxury hotels, breaking even means many things. At 50% occupancy, a property generally
has enough cash flow to make payroll, assuming rates remain stable, while 70% provides a healthy return on
investment. According to STR, the occupancy rate for U.S. hotels was under
43% in June.
has enough cash flow to make payroll, assuming rates remain stable, while 70% provides a healthy return on
investment. According to STR, the occupancy rate for U.S. hotels was under
43% in June.
In spite of that number, opening up gives hotels a fighting
shot to cover standing such expenses
as taxes, insurance, some management salaries, security, maintenance, and
basic energy costs—which all must be paid, whether a property is open or closed.
shot to cover standing such expenses
as taxes, insurance, some management salaries, security, maintenance, and
basic energy costs—which all must be paid, whether a property is open or closed.
It also gives them a chance to capture local business.
That’s the logic driving Rocco Forte Hotels, which by September will have reopened
its entire portfolio of 13 existing five-star properties around the world
while forging ahead on three additional forthcoming openings.
That’s the logic driving Rocco Forte Hotels, which by September will have reopened
its entire portfolio of 13 existing five-star properties around the world
while forging ahead on three additional forthcoming openings.
“My business will have an outflow of $55 million, whereas
normally I have an inflow of $35 million,” says Rocco Forte, the company’s
chairman. He adds that operating outdoor dining venues while the weather is
still nice—such as the garden restaurant at the Hotel de Russie in
Rome—compensates somewhat for poor overnight business, and can be done with
dramatically reduced staffing levels. “For a lot of people in the industry,
it's about survival,” he says.
normally I have an inflow of $35 million,” says Rocco Forte, the company’s
chairman. He adds that operating outdoor dining venues while the weather is
still nice—such as the garden restaurant at the Hotel de Russie in
Rome—compensates somewhat for poor overnight business, and can be done with
dramatically reduced staffing levels. “For a lot of people in the industry,
it's about survival,” he says.
Geography Matters
Location, supply and demand, debt load, morale, flexibility,
and a host of additional factors also come into play when deciding whether and
when to open.
and a host of additional factors also come into play when deciding whether and
when to open.
“It’s a tale of two areas—urban vs. non-urban,” says PRG co-founder Britten Shuford. His
company has seen occupancy rates hit highs of 80% at the surfer-friendly
Cambria Beach Lodge and lows of 20% throughout Los Angeles, where it
operates the still-closed Prospect hotel in Hollywood. Its design-forward Sands
Hotel & Spa in California’s Coachella Valley, meanwhile, has been up 50%
year-over-year since reopening in June. That picture gave Shuford faith that
White Water and the San Luis Creek Lodge, which opened in August in the Pacific
coast town of San Luis Obispo, would find their footing.
company has seen occupancy rates hit highs of 80% at the surfer-friendly
Cambria Beach Lodge and lows of 20% throughout Los Angeles, where it
operates the still-closed Prospect hotel in Hollywood. Its design-forward Sands
Hotel & Spa in California’s Coachella Valley, meanwhile, has been up 50%
year-over-year since reopening in June. That picture gave Shuford faith that
White Water and the San Luis Creek Lodge, which opened in August in the Pacific
coast town of San Luis Obispo, would find their footing.
Target audience also
makes a difference. Phil Cordell oversees Hilton’s Canopy brand of
friendly, stylish urban hotels. Nine Canopies have opened so far this
year—increasing the size of the portfolio by 75%—including locations in
Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. Even though they’re in cities, he thinks
Canopies can attract the kinds of travelers whose business has been a relative
bright spot this summer: road trippers, individual business travelers, and staycationers.
makes a difference. Phil Cordell oversees Hilton’s Canopy brand of
friendly, stylish urban hotels. Nine Canopies have opened so far this
year—increasing the size of the portfolio by 75%—including locations in
Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. Even though they’re in cities, he thinks
Canopies can attract the kinds of travelers whose business has been a relative
bright spot this summer: road trippers, individual business travelers, and staycationers.
“We’re going ahead with all the openings that were scheduled
this year,” Cordell says.
this year,” Cordell says.
Calculating Risk
Deciding to open a hotel doesn’t have to be an
all-or-nothing proposition. Take the Maker Hotel in the popular weekend town of
Hudson, N.Y., from Lev Glazman and Alina Roytberg, founders of the beauty brand
Fresh, and hospitality expert Damien Janowicz.
all-or-nothing proposition. Take the Maker Hotel in the popular weekend town of
Hudson, N.Y., from Lev Glazman and Alina Roytberg, founders of the beauty brand
Fresh, and hospitality expert Damien Janowicz.
It took the team 3 1/2 years to update, restore, and connect
three historic buildings into one. They opened
the property in stages—first a lounge, then a restaurant in a glass
conservatory, and finally a cafe with a European coffeehouse feel. The moody,
elegant hotel was scheduled to debut in April and instead launched in early
August, with reservations available only from Thursday to Monday, creating a
buffer for thorough cleanings
between guests. With a few weekends already sold out, Glazman says he’s
hoping to break even in just a few months.
three historic buildings into one. They opened
the property in stages—first a lounge, then a restaurant in a glass
conservatory, and finally a cafe with a European coffeehouse feel. The moody,
elegant hotel was scheduled to debut in April and instead launched in early
August, with reservations available only from Thursday to Monday, creating a
buffer for thorough cleanings
between guests. With a few weekends already sold out, Glazman says he’s
hoping to break even in just a few months.
For Rocco Forte, pursuing three new properties—two in Italy and one in Shanghai—means
maximizing economies of scale. “The future of my group is dependent to some
degree on being able to continue to grow,” Forte explains.
maximizing economies of scale. “The future of my group is dependent to some
degree on being able to continue to grow,” Forte explains.
Luckily for him and his counterparts, new hotels aren’t
expected to be profitable in their first year, anyway.
expected to be profitable in their first year, anyway.
“Unlike an office building, where tenants come on board when
you’re developing it, hotels are always built on spec—you don’t have any
installed customer base until you open the doors,” explains NYU’s Hennessey.
you’re developing it, hotels are always built on spec—you don’t have any
installed customer base until you open the doors,” explains NYU’s Hennessey.
Opening now allows operators to work out kinks and be
prepared for a recovery, he adds. But they can’t operate at a loss for too
long. “Many hotel companies have enough cash to pay overhead costs for 12 to 24
months,” he said. “Private owners likely have fewer resources to last that
long.”
prepared for a recovery, he adds. But they can’t operate at a loss for too
long. “Many hotel companies have enough cash to pay overhead costs for 12 to 24
months,” he said. “Private owners likely have fewer resources to last that
long.”
Sunday, August 16, 2020
Hollywood Apocalypse: The rich and famous are fleeing in droves | Daily Mail Online
Hollywood Apocalypse: The rich and famous are fleeing in droves | Daily Mail Online
One of the city’s homeless – there are more than 66,000 people sleeping rough every night. The virus only made matters worse. There are homeless encampments in some of the most instantly recognisable tourist traps
One of the city’s homeless – there are more than 66,000 people sleeping rough every night. The virus only made matters worse. There are homeless encampments in some of the most instantly recognisable tourist traps
Covid Spread Is Forcing Scientists to Rethink Herd Immunity - Bloomberg
Covid Spread Is Forcing Scientists to Rethink Herd Immunity - Bloomberg
people
who are most susceptible to infection get exposed first,” she says, leaving a
pool of ever-less susceptible people behind.
people
who are most susceptible to infection get exposed first,” she says, leaving a
pool of ever-less susceptible people behind.
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