Tuesday, January 3, 2012

VERSIONS AND BELIEFS: New Hurdles Loom in Euro Crisis - WSJ.com

New Hurdles Loom in Euro Crisis - WSJ.com

Someone wrote:

"Of course, we don't know if your own version is the faith based version, do we? Therein lies the problem. Until the science develops, your version is no more valid or reliable than another's."


Response:

Well, education and study do help to separate the wheat from the chaff (as they say) and have a better understanding of 'versions'.

I tend to believe in the maxim that if there is a 'third' option that allows two other options to co-exist, even if separately, then usually that is a better choice.

This rings true clearly with all of the economic and financial legerdemain out there.

I don't know if you ever got involved with working with econometric modeling? The key is to understand the correlations and the impact of something new.

As such, we see the wide variety of forecasts.

And again, going back to the earlier comments on 'beliefs', the selection of correlations and the inclusion (or exclusion) of data and relationships then often falls back on individual beliefs. Rather full circle and often self-reinforcing.

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