...he middle class is a fairly new development in economics. Up until the last century or two, most societies had a tiny wealthy elite and great masses of common laborers. We now regard having this group in the middle, not wealthy but with their own assets and spending power,...
...There is, however, some research – and it’s controversial – which indicates that relative income is important.A majority of respondents would rather have more relative income than more absolute income, especially if they are relatively lower-income than everybody else. ...we’re dealing with human emotions ...
.. angst – no matter your current circumstances – makes it more difficult to make decisions now than it is in more confident times. ... in times of high anxiety ... is the most difficult to get our clients and readers to actually respond. The best time to elicit a response is in a boom period, and the next best time is, ironically, just after a bust, when people are ready to figure out what to do...
... approaching that moment when the two greatest bubbles in human history – sovereign debt and government promises (which are conflated in many people’s minds) – will burst, and politicians and central banks will be forced to take actions that are unthinkable today....
good news
...on a global basis the number of people trapped in extreme poverty has plummeted this century. That trend doesn’t mean everyone everywhere is living comfortably. ...
The reason for the improvement, I believe, is that technology and free trade brought economic growth to formerly stagnant economies.
(chart link: https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty/#the-link-between-economic-growth-and-poverty)
bad news
Median Income
wide variation within Europe. In 2010, median income for a three-person household ranged from $31,885 in Spain to $65,466 in Luxembourg....
...median income in the US is actually down over the last 17 years and is only 3% higher now than it was 30 years ago. Those are inflation-adjusted numbers. But the reality is that, for the average person, inflation has been much higher than the average of 2% per year over that time, because the things that the average person actually buys, like housing and education and healthcare and all the other necessities of life, are rising at a much faster rate than 2%. So this chart reflects the fact that life has gotten much more difficult for average Americans....
[the problem - sliding down]
...“I’ve had to rethink my whole life to make ends meet on what I’m now making.”...
Summary
....The challenge that we have today is to recognize that the political, economic, and investment forces that we have become used to dealing with over the last 70 years, through all their ups and downs, are getting ready to shift more radically than we have yet seen or can even imagine. We will have to think more deeply and creatively than ever about how to prepare for the changes – the transformation – coming to our lives.
...the key is to diversify trading strategies, not just asset classes. Technology has allowed us to do some marvelous new things, and portfolio diversification that smoothes out the ride is one of them....the storms that we all know are coming as the world struggles to figure out how to deal with the massive amounts of debt and government obligations that are building up.
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