The change should probably be credited to President Donald Trump. Unlike President Barack Obama, Trump has not hesitated to use force against the Assad regime. He has stepped up the U.S. military presence in Syria, and he reportedly agreed recently to keep troops there indefinitely. Erdogan’s warnings against attacking Idlib were backed up by some strong rhetoric from the U.S.
The last thing Putin wants is for the U.S., flanked by Turkey and Israel, to attack the Assad regime. He’d be pitted against three major military powers with only Iran and the feckless Assad forces as his allies. He cannot hope that recent tension between Turkey and the U.S. will translate into a breakdown of their military union: In Idlib, U.S. and Turkish interests are aligned. The balance of forces has changed since Russia entered the war three years ago, and Trump’s willingness to wade in has played a major role in bringing about the change.
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