...This year's tax cuts will still leave many blue state residents with a net tax increase due to lost mortgage and state/local tax deductions. This may be why consumer spending and home purchases are not rising as some anticipated.
...
- Unlike in the 1930s, now some 83% of US private sector incomes are generated by service jobs, not manufacturing or farming.
- Tariffs targeted against US exports will mean layoffs mostly for farm equipment and industrial robots, not human workers.
- Because capital assets will stop generating income, a trade war today will hurt owners of capital more than it hurts labor.
- Many US-produced goods use inputs from China and elsewhere, so tariffs on exports back to those countries may hurt their own workers more than they hurt the US.
...Charles sees a good chance the world is heading into its eighth US dollar liquidity squeeze since 1971.
...
- Past liquidity crises ended when the Federal Reserve intervened, but this time politics could delay any response and let problems intensify.
- Presently, most of the world is moving from disinflationary boom to disinflationary bust, but the US is heading into an inflationary boom. This divergence greatly complicates portfolio strategy.
- A similar setup in 1998–2000 did not end happily.
- This year we see problems starting to emerge in Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil.
- Continental Europe is the weakest link because it is heavily exposed to slowing trade, an unsustainable currency system and faces rising political resistance. Avoid _________.
No comments:
Post a Comment