Lasers, hot rocks, and endless energy - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Lasers, hot rocks, and endless energy - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Lasers, hot rocks, and endless energy

In this issue: Dwarfing the potential of nuclear Rock-melting lasers Prosperity in a syringe “How can you be an optimist when…” What can we learn from Milei in Argentina?

Dear Rational Optimist,   What if I told you the next energy revolution isn't in the sky, but under your feet?   Deep underground, beneath layers of dirt and ancient rock, an endless furnace burns hotter than the surface of the sun.   It's been running since Earth formed 4.6 billion years ago, generating enough heat to easily power all of humanity.   This vast energy source has always been tantalizingly out of reach. But armed with a newly repurposed technology, three American startups are now racing to tap into Earth's natural power plant.   Temperatures reach 10,800°F at Earth’s core. Just a few miles down, the rocks are hot enough to boil water instantly. This is the source of geothermal energy.   The heat locked in Earth's crust holds more energy than all the world's oil, coal, gas, and uranium combined—and it’s not close:

Source: Eli Dourado   Almost every power plant today—whether nuclear, coal, or gas—is just an elaborate way to boil water into steam. That steam spins turbines, which generate electricity.   Geothermal works like nature’s steam engine. Drill holes into hot underground rocks. Pump water down. Use the heated water or steam to spin turbines and generate power.   Unlike solar panels that go dark at night or wind turbines that stagnate without a breeze, Earth's heat never quits. It runs 24/7, emission-free, rain or shine. And we can turn it on or off by simply turning water taps. This makes it the perfect partner for “intermittent” solar.   Yet geothermal provides only 0.4% of America's power today. Why so little?   Earth's heat is like a vast underground ocean. Until now, we could only access it where it bubbled to the surface naturally. Iceland, where boiling mud pits and steam vents signal the heat below, gets around 30% of its power from geothermal. No hot springs nearby? No Earth power for you.   That’s because it’s really hard to dig deep enough. The Soviets dug the deepest hole ever in 1970—the Kola Superdeep Borehole in Siberia. After 20 years of drilling, they reached 7.6 miles down.   At those depths, temperatures hit 360°F. Their drills kept breaking. The 9-inch-wide hole was welded shut in 1995, marking both a record and a dead end.   Rational Optimists know fracking was a gamechanger for America. Remember when the US’s biggest problem was dependence on Middle Eastern oil? In 2005, the US imported 3.7 billion barrels of oil. Plus tons of natural gas and coal. Wars were started over oil.   Today, the US produces more oil than any country, ever.

Source: Our World in Data   Fracking unlocked vast reserves of fuel trapped in layers of rock that were once thought impenetrable. Now, it’s being repurposed for something even bigger: tapping into Earth's endless heat, anywhere.   Geothermal 1.0 was primitive. Dig hole. Hope to hit natural steam vents.   Geothermal 2.0 is like precision surgery for the Earth. Pump water deep underground at such high pressures it cracks open hot rocks, creating what looks like veins in a leaf. “Frackers” then pop these cracks open with grains of sand, creating pathways for water to flow through.   Three small companies—each with a distinct approach—are leading the charge.   Deep in Nevada's desert, Fervo Energy is threading massive L-shaped wells through hot granite.   Picture two parallel wells. The first plunges straight down thousands of feet, then hooks sideways like a hockey stick. Cold water flows down it.   The second well carries up pressurized steam hot enough to power a small city. Here’s a look:

Source: Fervo   Google already powers its massive data centers with Fervo's geothermal wells in Nevada. California’s second-largest power provider also recently signed a deal to buy enough power for 350,000 homes. Geothermal fracking is here, and it's scaling up fast.   Eavor Technologies builds giant underground radiators. Imagine the Empire State Building laid flat, two miles underground. Now picture hot water flowing through its corridors non-stop, absorbing Earth's natural heat. That's Eavor's system:

Source: Eavor Technologies   Eavor drills two wells deep into the Earth and connects them with a network of underground pipes. Cold water flows down one well, winds through miles of heated tubes, and emerges from the second well as scalding steam.   Eavor has working wells in Germany and Canada. Its underground radiators are proving they can pump out heat in freezing temperatures.   If progress continues, its German project could soon deliver heat cheaper than natural gas. Big if true!   Quaise Energy wants to go deeper than we’ve ever gone before. Born in MIT's nuclear fusion lab, it’s aiming to bore 12 miles down into Earth’s crust where rocks bake at 930°F. It would make the Soviets’ hole look like a rabbit burrow.   At extreme depths even heavy duty drills often crack and snap in half. It’s hard to drill when your drill keeps breaking. It’s hard to drill when your drill keeps breaking.   Quaise is developing super powerful lasers to melt rock. These microwave beams vaporize granite like a blowtorch through ice.   Check out its prototype carving basketball-sized holes through solid rock.

Source: Henry Phan on LinkedIn   It’s early days. But if Quaise succeeds, we’re talking about a future where one small geothermal well can reach down to such reliably hot heat, it could power tens of thousands of homes. A hole narrower than a trash can, powering an entire town!   The race to tap Earth's endless heat is on. Geothermal isn’t ready for prime time just yet. It still costs several times more than natural gas or nuclear to get a geothermal well up and running. But what matters is how fast this technology is evolving.   A solar panel used to cost as much as a house. Now, solar’s on track to become one of the cheapest power sources by 2030. The same forces are at work in geothermal. Every well drilled is a lesson learned. In just one-year, Fervo slashed drilling times by 70% and costs by 50%.   Rational Optimists know energy is the master resource. Cheap, abundant energy is the bedrock of all innovation. When power is cheap, everything goes on sale. Factories can produce more. Businesses make more money. It's like handing out stimulus checks to the entire economy.   Want to bring manufacturing back from China? Give American factories cheap, reliable power and throw in some robots. We can compete with anyone.   Did you know the federal government owns most of the land in Nevada, Utah, and Idaho? Look at a geothermal heat map, and you’ll see these same states glowing red with underground heat.

Source: National Renewal Energy Laboratory   This could be the birth of a new major energy source. One that combines the reliability of oil with the cleanliness of solar. Hot rocks are already powering Google's data centers and thousands of homes in Nevada. Tomorrow, they’ll power millions more.   For the first time ever, energy abundance is now well within our reach. Solar panels carpet sunny Texas and California. Nuclear is enjoying a renaissance. Fracking keeps the oil and gas flowing. Now, geothermal could transform the American West into an energy powerhouse.   Cheap, clean, reliable energy leads to new industries. New innovations. New ways of living we haven't even imagined yet. How can you not be rationally optimistic?