Friday, June 30, 2023

Economics Daily: China’s Got 99 Problems - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Economics Daily: China’s Got 99 Problems - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Bloomberg

I’m James Mayger, a China economy reporter in Beijing. Today we’re looking at China’s slowing economic recovery. Send us feedback and tips to ecodaily@bloomberg.net or tweet to @economics. And if you aren’t yet signed up to receive this newsletter, you can do so here

Please note: Economics Daily will be back on Wednesday, July 5, after a break for the US holiday.

Top Stories

  • Data today may show the Fed’s preferred price metrics stayed elevated in May. Underlying inflation in the euro zone accelerated.
  • China’s economy lost more steam in June as manufacturing activity contracted again and other sectors failed to build momentum.
  • UK living standards resume their decline in a fresh blow to Rishi Sunak.

China’s Got 99 Problems

After the whole of China got Covid last December and the government finally lifted its pandemic restrictions, 2023 was meant to be the year for an economic rebound.

We’re halfway through the year and instead the world’s second-largest economy is facing a confluence of problems: Sluggish consumer spending, a crisis-ridden property market, flagging exports, record youth unemployment and towering local government debt.

People are becoming more pessimistic about their income and the prospects for the housing market, and debate is raging in the country on whether China is headed for a Japan-style malaise after 30 years of unprecedented economic growth.

Relations with major trading partners and sources of technology such as the US, Europe, Japan or South Korea are worsening. Foreign firms in China are also increasingly wary of investing more here — partly because of concerns about the slowdown, and partly because of the rising risks from doing business in the world’s second-largest economy. 

Altogether, the dynamics threaten not only to lead to disappointing growth this year, but also to thwart the Chinese economy’s momentum to surpass that of the US.

“A few years ago, it was difficult to imagine China not rapidly overtaking the US as the world’s biggest economy,” said Tom Orlik, chief economist for Bloomberg Economics. “Now, that geopolitical moment will almost certainly be delayed, and it’s possible to imagine scenarios where it doesn’t happen at all.”

China’s $18 trillion economy is struggling across a range of sectors.

In the debt-strapped southwestern province of Guizhou, officials are seeking bailouts from Beijing. In the manufacturing hub of Yiwu in coastal Zhejiang province, small businesses say sales are down substantially from 2021 levels. Over in the city of Hangzhou — the home of e-commerce giant Alibaba — a government regulatory crackdown on the tech sector and tens of thousands of layoffs are now affecting the property market.

China’s official growth target of around 5%, which was deemed unambitious when it was announced in March, now looks more realistic. Goldman Sachs in June cut its forecast for China’s growth this year to 5.4% from 6%.

That doesn’t look too shabby at first glance, given the world economy is expected to grow a meager 2.8%. The reality, though, is that since China was still under Covid rules in 2022, a low base for comparison is flattering the headline. Netting out the base effect, growth for 2023 will look closer to 3% — less than half the pre-pandemic average, Bloomberg Economics said.

President Xi Jinping’s government doesn’t have great options to fix things. Beijing’s typical playbook of using large-scale stimulus to boost demand has led to massive oversupply in property and industry, and surging debt levels among local governments.  

Those fundamental imbalances have prompted a number of connected and influential economists to warn that there’s no big bang of stimulus on the horizon. 

An aerial view of a stalled housing construction project in Zunyi, China. Photographer: Qilai Shen

Those hoping for are massive stimulus to shore up the weakening economic recovery are likely to be disappointed, Zhu Min, a former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said this week. “There are a lot of expectations on the Chinese government to have more stimulus policies. I don’t think this is real.”

And the changes in the economy mean that people should be prepared for slower growth, according to Keyu Jin, an economics professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science who wrote The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism.

“We’re caught in a kind of vicious circle in the sense that you need a massive stimulus to create a little moderate impact,” she said this week. “We have to be prepared for slower growth in the future because China is really in transition right now from industrialization to innovation-based growth.” 


Put-IN, Prigozh-OUT - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Put-IN, Prigozh-OUT - btbirkett@gmail.com - Gmail

Wednesday, June 28, 2023

Pompeii archaeologists discover 'pizza' painting - BBC News

Pompeii archaeologists discover 'pizza' painting - BBC News

Pompeii archaeologists discover 'pizza' painting

  • Published
A newly-excavated fresco in Pompeii depicting a flatbread which could be the precursor to the modern-day pizzaIMAGE SOURCE,ITALIAN CULTURE MINISTRY
Image caption,
The newly-uncovered fresco was found on a half-crumbled wall in what was the hallway of a house in Pompeii

Archaeologists in the ancient Roman city of Pompeii have uncovered a painting which depicts what might be the precursor to the Italian pizza.

The flatbread depicted in the 2,000-year-old fresco "may be a distant ancestor of the modern dish", Italy's culture ministry said.

But it lacks the classic ingredients to technically be considered a pizza.

The fresco was found in the hall of a house next to a bakery during recent digs at the site in southern Italy.

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The discovery was made this year during new excavations of Regio IX in the centre of Pompeii, one of the nine districts that the ancient site is divided into.

The building was partially excavated in the 19th Century before digging recommenced in January this year - nearly 2,000 years on from the volcanic eruption which engulfed the city.

Archaeologists at the Unesco World Heritage park say the newly-uncovered fresco depicting the flatbread, painted next to a wine goblet, may have been eaten with fruits such as pomegranates or dates, or dressed with spices and a type of pesto sauce.

Pompeii director Gabriel Zuchtriegel said it shows the contrast between a "frugal and simple meal" and the "luxury of silver trays".

"How can we fail to think, in this regard, of pizza, also born as a 'poor' dish in southern Italy, which has now conquered the world and is also served in starred restaurants," he said.

The skeletons of three people were also found near the oven in the working areas of the home in recent weeks, a culture ministry statement added.

The eruption of Mount Vesuvius in AD 79 buried Pompeii in ash, freezing the city and its residents in time. The site has been a rich source for archaeologists since its discovery in the 16th Century.

The site is only about 23km (14 miles) from the city of Naples - the modern day home of the Unesco-protected Italian pizza.

Friday, June 23, 2023

AI Drone Cuts Chemical Use in Big Farm Weeding - Bloomberg

AI Drone Cuts Chemical Use in Big Farm Weeding - Bloomberg

Precision AI’s new vision system takes its first ever test flights on March 28, 2023 in Maricopa, Arizona.
Precision AI’s new vision system takes its first ever test flights on March 28, 2023 in Maricopa, Arizona.Photographer: Rebecca Noble for Bloomberg Green
Green
Cleaner Tech

AI Weed-Killing Drones Are Coming for the Mega Farms

This Canadian startup has developed an AI-enabled crop-spraying drone that reduces chemical use by up to 90%. 

For the past three years, Terry Aberhart has watched the spindly, fixed-wing drones zip across the big skies over his farm in Canada’s Saskatchewan province, testing a technology that could be the future of weeding.

Fitted with an artificial intelligence system, the drones are designed by local startup Precision AI to spot, identify and kill the weeds without drenching the entire crop in chemicals.

“I’m on the list for one of the first machines when they become available,” says Aberhart, a sustainable farming enthusiast. “The current technology is designed for maximum coverage and to hit everything in the field.”

relates to AI Weed-Killing Drones Are Coming for the Mega Farms
Crew members Mark Lyon, Ron Graddy and Daniel Peters bring a drone in for landing. Precision AI is also working on a fully autonomous spraying drone that can take off, fly and land by itself. Current regulations require its drone missions to be supervised by a human operator.
Photographer: Rebecca Noble for Bloomberg Green

For decades, big-acre crops like corn and wheat have been treated by spraying tractors that would move across vast farmlands, unleashing waterfalls of herbicide from long arms stretched above the crops, all to zap weeds that are often tiny and scattered about.

Apart from the environmental toll, that conventional spray-it-all approach also results in colossal financial waste. Aberhart spent nearly C$1 million ($745,000) on herbicides in 2022 alone to protect the wheat, canola and pulses growing on a slice of prairie larger than Manhattan. “Even if we could save 50% on average, it’s a huge saving,” he says.

The problem of combating weeds in a sustainable way is more urgent today than ever. Scientists say global warming supercharges the growth of certain weeds that compete for nutrients with crops, threatening food security. But every drop of herbicide farmers spray comes with an environmental cost, polluting soilcontaminating drinking water and contributing to a catastrophic loss of biodiversity.

relates to AI Weed-Killing Drones Are Coming for the Mega Farms
Peters checks the wind speeds for the drone test flight. Precision offers an on-demand spraying service. It also sells the drone to farmers who want more control over their crop management, then it charges a fee for its AI operating software on a pay-as-you-go basis.
Photographer: Rebecca Noble for Bloomberg Green

A 2020 study found prolonged exposure to weed killers — including those approved by regulators — poses a threat to water fleas, a species vital to the aquatic ecosystem. And pressure is mounting on global food producers to rethink intensive farming practices; leaders from 195 nations signed a landmark United Nations-backed agreement last year, pledging to protect and restore at least 30% of the Earth’s land and water by 2030.

Precision AI is among a handful of companies turning to advanced technology to address the problem of chemical overuse in agriculture. Founded in 2017 by serial tech entrepreneur Daniel McCann, the company uses images of 15,000 plant species to train computer algorithms to distinguish staple crops (think corn, wheat and soybeans) from unwanted weeds.  The drone’s camera can “see” anything bigger than half a sesame seed and its AI identifies weeds with 96% accuracy, spraying the intended target alone.

Precision AI says its approach can reduce herbicide use by as much as 90% compared to traditional methods. The startup was one of a dozen winners of BloombergNEF’s 2023 Pioneers award, which aims to spotlight early-stage climate tech innovators with game-changing potential.

Read More on BNEF Pioneers:
•  12 Climate Tech Pioneers Building a Net Zero World
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Precision’s drones are capable of carrying five US gallons of liquid (nearly 20 liters) per flight and covering roughly 80 acres (0.3 square km) an hour. As the drone flies 4 to 6 feet (1.2 to 1.8 meters) above ground, its AI system makes real-time decisions and applies herbicides only where needed.

“We can’t continue to do things the way we’ve always done them,” McCann says. “We have to grow food smarter.”

relates to AI Weed-Killing Drones Are Coming for the Mega Farms
A drone gets a pre-flight check. The global herbicide market is expected to expand to $57 billion by 2027 from $34 billion last year, according to Business Research Co., a consulting firm. Precision plans to begin in North America, where US lawmakers have given the green light to agricultural spray drones used by licensed operators.
Photographer: Rebecca Noble for Bloomberg Green

Leveraging robotics and computer technology to assist in agricultural production isn’t a new concept; researchers at the University of Florida explored the possibility of a robotic orange picker as early as the 1980s. But recent technological advancements in AI, combined with worsening labor shortages and growing consumer demand for ethically and ecologically-produced food, have accelerated innovation.

“There are a lot of new developments and efforts towards using automated robotic solutions in agriculture,” says Manoj Karkee, a professor specializing in agricultural engineering at Washington State University. “We’re closer than ever to starting utilizing these technologies.” 

Precision farming — an umbrella term that covers everything from AI-enabled weeding machines to smart sensor-controlled irrigation systems — is expected to grow from an $8.5 billion business last year to $15.6 billion by 2030, according to consultancy Markets and Markets. To get a slice of that action, Israeli startup Greeneye Technology helps upgrade mainstream sprayers to smarter ones that can identify and target individual weeds. Bosch BASF Smart Farming, a joint venture between two of Europe’s largest conglomerates, has come up with a similar solution.

relates to AI Weed-Killing Drones Are Coming for the Mega Farms
Graddy checks a drone’s propellers. Precision plans to commercialize its service next year. Unlike conventional spraying tractors that trample anything in their way and compact the soil, the drones minimize collateral damage.
Photographer: Rebecca Noble for Bloomberg Green

Precision AI is focused on weed control from the sky with an additional benefit in mind. Unlike conventional spraying tractors and high-tech ground robots that trample anything in their way and compact the soil, drones minimize collateral damage.

relates to AI Weed-Killing Drones Are Coming for the Mega Farms

That, in turn, could allow farmers to produce more on the same land — good news for a world where at least 50% more food is needed by 2050 to sustain a growing population, according to a 2019 study.

For now, Precision AI’s drone is operated with supervision from a human pilot. But McCann says his company is poised to introduce a fully autonomous spraying drone that can take off, fly and land by itself – as long as regulators grant permission.

The startup plans to commercialize its on-demand spraying service next year, allowing farmers to book as needed — not dissimilar to how consumers order an Uber. It will also sell the spraying drone to farmers who want more control over their crop management and charge a fee for its AI operating software on a pay-as-you-go basis.

relates to AI Weed-Killing Drones Are Coming for the Mega Farms
Peters adjusts the drone control system. Precision’s algorithm is trained to identify and avoid some of the world’s most important crops, including corn, soybeans and wheat.
Photographer: Rebecca Noble for Bloomberg Green

That business potential has attracted investors including At One Ventures and BDC Capital, who’ve poured more than $20 million in venture funding into the company. Precision AI is also among eight startups selected earlier this year by Moline, Illinois-based Deere & Company, one of the world’s biggest farm machinery makers by revenue, to team up on the exploration of future agricultural technology.

Not everyone is convinced that future farming will be ruled by flying robots, however. Mark Siemens, an associate professor at the University of Arizona, says agricultural drone makers still need to prove their technology, especially at scale.

There is also the issue of regulatory hurdles. Precision AI is first targeting North America, where big-acre farming is common. But Canada has yet to give its regulatory blessing to commercial drone-based weed control. In the US, where Precision AI plans to make its commercial debut next year, lawmakers have given the green light for agricultural spray drones used by licensed operators — but they have done so with a long checklist. “The legal framework is still pretty challenging,” says Karkee of Washington State University.

On top of that, agricultural drone makers including Precision AI may get a cold shoulder from those they mean to help.

relates to AI Weed-Killing Drones Are Coming for the Mega Farms
A Precision AI drone flies over a barren farm field in Maricopa, Arizona. The startup says “no plant goes unseen” by its drone. The flying robot “can ‘see’ anything down to the size of half a sesame seed from 4 feet to 6 feet aboveground.”
Photographer: Rebecca Noble for Bloomberg Green

Aberhart, the farmer in Saskatchewan, says it will require “a big shift in mindset and mentality” for the farming community to switch over from the blanket spraying practice that has dominated the industry for decades. The first converts will be taking a big risk. After all, if weed management fails, it can ruin a season.

But Aberhart reckons that the transition will be a question of when, rather than whether.  “It costs a farmer money to spray. So why would we want to spend more money if we don’t have to?”

Visual media produced in partnership with Outrider Foundation.