...mover, not expecting much American pushback except in words. The next administration will have to act, and there are three distinct courses of action open.
One is to remove the ideological red lines, allow that Russia may hold on to Crimea and Assad may remain in power in Syria, and try to make pragmatic deals with Putin -- for example, siding with him against the Islamic State. Another is to act as forcefully as possible in both Ukraine and Syria, risking a military confrontation with Russia but hoping Putin will be intimidated and desist. The third option is to step up economic sanctions against Russia and wait for the Putin regime to collapse for economic reasons while avoiding a direct show of force.
My fear is that Clinton will choose one of the latter two options or a combination of them. That will enable Putin to step up the anti-Western hysteria in Russia -- and almost force him to pick up the gauntlet as soon as possible, before Russia collapses economically. He has proven many times that he doesn't have a reverse gear. His recent ultimatum to the U.S. is proof that he's willing to play the escalation game. A military escalation between Russia and the U.S. could have dramatic consequences for my country -- and also for the U.S. if it allows itself to be dragged into war with such a dangerous rival.
Clinton halfheartedly tried the realpolitik option with Russia during the infamous "reset." Her heart wasn't in it, and Putin felt he was being duped rather than offered real carrots to join forces with the U.S. As president, Clinton probably won't give it another, better try. I wish someone would, though: Russia cannot easily be forced onto a democratic, Western path.
That's why I would prefer a more flexible leader, equally good with carrot and stick, to lead the U.S. It's likely, however, that no such leader exists in the current lineup. Trump is unpredictable, which is the worst thing to be. And that's where I disagree with most of my compatriots.
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