Thursday, December 7, 2017

Does Amazon Create Jobs? Well, It Hired 75,000 Robots in 2017 JOHN MAULDIN | December 6, 2017

http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/OTB_Dec_06_2017.pdf



..Now, to be fair, Amazon represents only a small portion of US retail sales, but it accounts for an outsized portion of the growth in retail sales. And, again to be fair, Amazon does not do even a majority of online sales, since other online retailers are just as aggressively pushing their own products.



...we simply have too many retail stores. Reasonable analysis that I’ve read suggests that we have anywhere from 10 to 15% more retail stores than we actually need...



...You wonder why there has been no wage inflation when, theoretically, unemployment is so low? Here’s one of a number of answers: Amazon has hired approximately 75,000 robots just this year.



...

  1. While it may be difficult to prove causality, it’s not difficult to see the correlation between a decline of 24,000 human employees and an increase of 75,000 robot employees.
Amazon’s growth and efficiency (driven by AI and automation) are key to why its stock has performed so well. The company is increasing its investment in robotics and, in our assumptions, machines could represent 20% of the total employee base by the end of the year. That increase in automation drives efficiency and growth and makes Amazon investors happy—especially relative to the retail industry as a whole. While the S&P Retail Index is flat this year, Amazon’s stock is up 57%.
... In October, Amazon was awarded a patent for “content-based price reductions and incentives.”...One person’s time is inevitably more valuable than another’s, so with dynamic pricing, it’s not hard to imagine a personalized price based on a customer’s attention span and spending behavior....


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