Here’s what we have to do to show a coronavirus vaccine works | MIT Technology Review

Here’s what we have to do to show a coronavirus vaccine works | MIT Technology Review



...Dukes says she’s seen draft plans for vaccine trials involving 6,000 to 10,000 volunteers, in which researchers estimated that as many as 3.7% of volunteers would be exposed to the virus. That means they’re expecting about 100 to 150 infections in the placebo arm and fewer, or ideally none, among those who get vaccinated. That would be statistical proof the shot works.



...“Experts keep saying we’ll have a vaccine in the fall, but we won’t even have any data by then,” says Caplan, who adds that it would be “ethically impossible” to distribute a vaccine before there’s proof it works safely. 



...“If a vaccine has a good safety profile and might possibly work, you could see people on the front line getting it,” he says.



...Plotkin says the usual downfall of a vaccine is that researchers pick the wrong part of the virus to include in it or fail to inject enough of the substance. Other times it’s the biology of the virus that’s the problem—as in the case of HIV, a shape-shifter that attacks the immune system.