https://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/TFTF_May_29_2020.pdf
Niall Ferguson...Niall believes the US response to the coronavirus has turned a mid-sized pandemic into a catastrophe. Unlike war, which is typically inflationary because it stimulates demand, pandemics suppress demand. In his view, the economy will be slow to return as lockdowns end, leaving the world in a generally deflationary environment.
... out-of-consensus ideas he thinks have a better than 50% chance of occurring this year.
....Passive Investments Will Get Slaughtered. Stocks are 90% overvalued, which means they need a 50% decline. Multiple expansion was responsible for all of 2019 stock gains. We are still 18 months from the economic and market bottom.
... In a race-to-the-bottom currency war, everyone loses. Gold is the world’s best currency now.
...Oil is increasingly a technology play as getting it out of the ground becomes less expensive. Ditto for natural gas.)
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