Why Is Uruguay Beating
Latin America’s Coronavirus Curse?
Latin America’s Coronavirus Curse?
Its demographics and location make it prime pandemic
territory. But it has assets its neighbors lack.
territory. But it has assets its neighbors lack.
By
Uruguay is winning its race against the pandemic.
Photographer: Ernesto
Ryan/Getty Images South America
Ryan/Getty Images South America
Mac Margolis is a
Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Latin and South America. He was a reporter
for Newsweek and is the author of “The Last New World: The Conquest of the
Amazon Frontier.”
Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Latin and South America. He was a reporter
for Newsweek and is the author of “The Last New World: The Conquest of the
Amazon Frontier.”
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As the novel coronavirus cyclones through Latin
America, it has staggered almost every nation. So how to explain Uruguay? Its
infection rate of 2.1 cases per million inhabitants is the second
lowest in South America and already falling, with just 22 fatalities by May 27.
Ahead of many of its neighbors, Uruguay is already glimpsing a safe return to
economic normalcy.
America, it has staggered almost every nation. So how to explain Uruguay? Its
infection rate of 2.1 cases per million inhabitants is the second
lowest in South America and already falling, with just 22 fatalities by May 27.
Ahead of many of its neighbors, Uruguay is already glimpsing a safe return to
economic normalcy.
It might not have turned out this way. The
nation of 3.5 million people is rife with risks. It is the Latin American nation
with the largest share of elderly, and all but 4% of the
national population lives in cities. Those are the kind of demographics made
for contagion. Uruguay is wedged between ailing giants: Brazil is the pandemic’s new epicenter, while Argentina was already
nearing economic collapse when it defaulted on its debt last week.
nation of 3.5 million people is rife with risks. It is the Latin American nation
with the largest share of elderly, and all but 4% of the
national population lives in cities. Those are the kind of demographics made
for contagion. Uruguay is wedged between ailing giants: Brazil is the pandemic’s new epicenter, while Argentina was already
nearing economic collapse when it defaulted on its debt last week.
And yet — stricken neighbors take note — Uruguay
has not only contained the outbreak, it has done so without a lockdown, harsh
quarantines or heavy-handed policing. Most schools and restaurants closed their
doors, but shops and businesses were allowed to stay open. Unlike its outsize
neighbors who mostly flew blind into the pandemic, Uruguay built its crisis
response on proactive testing and
tracing — it has the second highest testing rate in South America — and
cajoling its citizenry to do the right thing, as in this national mask-wearing
campaign.
has not only contained the outbreak, it has done so without a lockdown, harsh
quarantines or heavy-handed policing. Most schools and restaurants closed their
doors, but shops and businesses were allowed to stay open. Unlike its outsize
neighbors who mostly flew blind into the pandemic, Uruguay built its crisis
response on proactive testing and
tracing — it has the second highest testing rate in South America — and
cajoling its citizenry to do the right thing, as in this national mask-wearing
campaign.
Its liberal social engineering strategy is
similar to Sweden’s, yet Uruguay has managed to avoid the Scandinavian
country’s soaring death toll. Its policies have drawn praise from the World Bank and earned Uruguay
favorable comparisons to New Zealand, minus the benefit of being surrounded by
ocean.
similar to Sweden’s, yet Uruguay has managed to avoid the Scandinavian
country’s soaring death toll. Its policies have drawn praise from the World Bank and earned Uruguay
favorable comparisons to New Zealand, minus the benefit of being surrounded by
ocean.
A near-universal
health care system, years in the making, has helped. So has the country’s relatively
low population density (Montevideo is about half as densely occupied as
Buenos Aires) as well as Uruguay’s overall well-being. The Boston Consulting
Group in 2018 ranked Uruguay as Latin America’s most prosperous nation.
It boasts one of the region’s highest scores on the human
development index. Extreme poverty has all but disappeared.
health care system, years in the making, has helped. So has the country’s relatively
low population density (Montevideo is about half as densely occupied as
Buenos Aires) as well as Uruguay’s overall well-being. The Boston Consulting
Group in 2018 ranked Uruguay as Latin America’s most prosperous nation.
It boasts one of the region’s highest scores on the human
development index. Extreme poverty has all but disappeared.
But perhaps Uruguay’s biggest assets are its
intangibles. Uruguayans, while hardly complacent, tend to follow rules and
heed authorities. Mind you, social distancing doesn’t come naturally to the
gregarious Charrua, as its natives call themselves. “People crowd the Rambla [a
shoreline drive] on Sunday, share the cup of mate tea and congregate for
barbecue on Sunday,” said Benjamin Gedan, deputy director of the Wilson
Center’s Latin America program.
intangibles. Uruguayans, while hardly complacent, tend to follow rules and
heed authorities. Mind you, social distancing doesn’t come naturally to the
gregarious Charrua, as its natives call themselves. “People crowd the Rambla [a
shoreline drive] on Sunday, share the cup of mate tea and congregate for
barbecue on Sunday,” said Benjamin Gedan, deputy director of the Wilson
Center’s Latin America program.
Uruguayan voters also share a political culture
that allows adversaries to disagree without descending into toxic dissent. A
center-right political alliance narrowly won the election last year, after a
decade and a half of rule by a left-wing coalition, but the switch was not the
product of the same popular revilement that sent millions to the streets across
Latin America. “In a region roiled by political chaos and uncertainty, we have
seen social stability and a considerable degree of political consensus,” said
Ignacio Munyo, an economist who teaches at the University of Montevideo.
that allows adversaries to disagree without descending into toxic dissent. A
center-right political alliance narrowly won the election last year, after a
decade and a half of rule by a left-wing coalition, but the switch was not the
product of the same popular revilement that sent millions to the streets across
Latin America. “In a region roiled by political chaos and uncertainty, we have
seen social stability and a considerable degree of political consensus,” said
Ignacio Munyo, an economist who teaches at the University of Montevideo.
Tellingly, the most remarkable protest in
Uruguay was last year’s mass march for the rule of law and against a
controversial amendment to crack down on a crime surge by creating a national guard with praetorian powers.
The bill was defeated. A message hoisted by a lone leftist partisan in the
crowd gathered to hail conservative president-elect Luis Lacalle Pou’s victory
last November became a unifying national meme: “Congratulations. If you
fare well, so will I,” read his placard.
Uruguay was last year’s mass march for the rule of law and against a
controversial amendment to crack down on a crime surge by creating a national guard with praetorian powers.
The bill was defeated. A message hoisted by a lone leftist partisan in the
crowd gathered to hail conservative president-elect Luis Lacalle Pou’s victory
last November became a unifying national meme: “Congratulations. If you
fare well, so will I,” read his placard.
So far, Lacalle Pou has mostly returned the
favor. “While this is definitely a government of the right, it’s also a broad
coalition,” said Nicolas Saldias, a Latin America scholar at the Wilson Center.
“You don’t see wild policy swings. Lacalle Pou has mostly maintained the social
and labor policies from before. There’s broad agreement among political actors
despite their differences.”
favor. “While this is definitely a government of the right, it’s also a broad
coalition,” said Nicolas Saldias, a Latin America scholar at the Wilson Center.
“You don’t see wild policy swings. Lacalle Pou has mostly maintained the social
and labor policies from before. There’s broad agreement among political actors
despite their differences.”
Shared commitments could presage a quicker
recovery. Although the International Monetary Fund reckoned the Uruguayan
economy will shrink by 3% this year, the regional contraction
will be far more severe: 5.2%. What’s more, the fund touts Uruguay to log the
region’s sharpest rebound (5%) in 2021.
recovery. Although the International Monetary Fund reckoned the Uruguayan
economy will shrink by 3% this year, the regional contraction
will be far more severe: 5.2%. What’s more, the fund touts Uruguay to log the
region’s sharpest rebound (5%) in 2021.
That forecast affords Uruguay a rare chance for
a reset. The economy was already in a five-year rut heading into the health
crisis. The World Economic Forum ranked Uruguay poorly in
hiring and firing policies and worker-employer cooperation, and 108th among 141
countries for overall labor flexibility. The country also must deepen pension
reform to provide for the quickly graying population. “This is the right moment
to restructure,” Munyo said. “That’s critical for putting Uruguay in the center
of multinational sights for investment.”
a reset. The economy was already in a five-year rut heading into the health
crisis. The World Economic Forum ranked Uruguay poorly in
hiring and firing policies and worker-employer cooperation, and 108th among 141
countries for overall labor flexibility. The country also must deepen pension
reform to provide for the quickly graying population. “This is the right moment
to restructure,” Munyo said. “That’s critical for putting Uruguay in the center
of multinational sights for investment.”
In this way, Uruguay’s penchant for national
accord can be good medicine. Shared sensibilities could not only help inoculate
its struggling economy with vital structural reforms but also spread a salutary
message to the rest of a region riven by politics.
accord can be good medicine. Shared sensibilities could not only help inoculate
its struggling economy with vital structural reforms but also spread a salutary
message to the rest of a region riven by politics.
This column does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and
its owners.
not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and
its owners.
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