a Decade of Living Dangerously, Optimistically, and Practically!
The Great: The Transformation of the Future
It’s a dream team. XPRIZE founder Peter Diamandis, maybe the world’s leading futurist, has agreed to take us on a tour of his vision of the future. His latest, best-selling book, The Future Is Faster Than You Think, is a tour de force. He’ll deliver a powerful presentation, plus 30 minutes for questions and answers.
Then my favorite philosophical historian, futurist, and scientist, Viscount Matt Ridley (yes, he is a member of the House of Lords, and I imagine he tweaks more than a few of his fellow members from time to time; I would never want to be on the other side of an argument with him.). With numerous bestsellers, including The Rational Optimist, The Evolution of Everything, and his forthcoming How Innovation Works, Matt is the preeminent conservative/libertarian thought leader in the world when it comes to understanding where technology is leading us and why the world is getting better.
Karen Harris is the managing director of Bain and Company Macro Trends Group. She and her team literally live in the future for their day job. I have met with some of her staff, as well as often talked with her directly, and I don’t believe I have ever met a smarter team. Karen has an ongoing dialogue with the leadership of the world’s largest corporations. She has graciously agreed to join us, and we’ll learn what she sees in her crystal ball.
Cathy Wood is the acknowledged leader of technology mutual funds. She digs deep into hundreds of new technologies and companies, finding the handful of legitimate leaders. The intrepid Barry Ritholtz will interview her, teasing out her best ideas.
The Reality: What the Short and Long-Term Future Looks Like
If the above group was the dream team, this next group brings us the all world all-stars. Where to begin? Alphabetically...
Ian Bremmer is the seemingly everywhere founder of GZERO Media and the Eurasia Group, which now has 250 people focused on providing deep-dive intelligence to the largest corporations, financial institutions, and governments in the world. He has personal relations with leaders of nations and global institutions (think IMF, World Bank, etc.), he is also a confidante of the heads of the world’s largest corporations and industry groups. His personal database of knowledge is extraordinary. It is a rare privilege when we can get him to our (virtual) stage.
Niall Ferguson needs no introduction. Now with the Hoover Institute, he is clearly one of the world’s top economic historians. But we get a bonus. Some seven years ago, at the end of the evening during one of our conferences, perhaps a dozen of us were gathered in my hotel suite. Niall, the Scottish historian, and David McWilliams, the Irish economist, sat down at the table and began to debate. As the evening and the wine/scotch wore on, their brogues got thicker and the thinking became magical. The entire room fell silent and listened to what was one of the most engaging and powerful conversations I have ever witnessed. For this SIC, I have managed to get both Niall and David to join us from Palo Alto and Dublin, and see if we can get a wee bit of the Celtic magic to once again grace our screen.
George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures needs very little introduction to my readers. He just published a book called The Storm Before the Calm, which talks about the rare intersection of the 80-year and 50-year geopolitical cycles coming together in the middle of this decade. He believes this will bring a tectonic shift in global geopolitics. (Ironically, this is about the same time as Neil Howe’s end of the Fourth Turning and the beginning of the First Turning, setting the stage for what I call “The Great Reset.” See Neil below, who will also be with us.)
What a privilege to have the entire team of Gavekal, one of the best economic research firms in the world. Louis Gave (formerly of Hong Kong, now of Western Canada), his father Charles Gave from Paris, and Anatole Kaletsky from London, will meet on our virtual stage. This is close to miraculous. Anatole was the longtime economics editor for a major paper in Great Britain, and he knows “everyone” in Europe and much of the world. Charles brings six decades of conservative economic insight (which is balanced by Anatole). When Charles talks, you need to listen. And Louis is both a close personal friend and one of the most brilliant minds I have had the pleasure of meeting. He takes the research his team provides and turns it into practical buy/sell recommendations.
Neil Howe of Hedgeye, who cowrote Generations and The Fourth Turning, will join us to talk about the transition from the Fourth Turning into the First Turning, which will happen in the middle of this decade, and what it means. I often have long conversations with Neil and have wondered what would be the catalyst for the dramatic changes that have accompanied similar moments in past centuries. The Revolutionary War, the Civil War, World War II... and it goes back even further into the Anglo-Saxon world. We are beginning to see the possibilities regarding the technological confrontation with China and the coronavirus pandemic. We can clearly see that the world is changing—and the rising generations’ attitude toward government will change with it. This has huge implications for our daily lives and our investment portfolios.
The Practical: How Then Do We Invest?
This is an investment conference, after all, and wow, do we have some great investment minds lined up.
Leon Cooperman, the former head of asset management at Goldman Sachs, was ranked the number one portfolio strategist for nine straight years by Institutional Investor. Leon, who went on to found the extremely successful Omega Advisors hedge fund, will be interviewed by his and my friend David Bahnsen. One of the most astute stock investors and strategists in the world, I promise you will walk away with ideas you can put to work.
Felix Zulauf, noted Swiss investor and a staple of the Barron’s Roundtable, will join us from Switzerland, with Grant Williams to tease out his best ideas. Not to mention his insights on how Europe and the world are changing.
David Rosenberg has been my leadoff hitter for the conference for over a decade. Now, newly independent with his own research firm, he is free to get more specific about investments. Simply one of the greatest contrarians of the last 30 years.
Ross Beaty and Marin Katusa, two of the most successful mining geniuses in the world, will come together to talk about gold in particular and metals in general. Where are the opportunities? With the Federal Reserve and other central banks seemingly going off the reservation, making up monetary policy as they go along, what will that mean for gold and natural resources in general? These two industry pioneers live and breathe the resource markets, know all the players involved, and have agreed to a no-holds-barred, on-the-record conversation... with plenty of time for you to ask your own questions.
I also enlisted old friends (with me and each other) Doug Kass and Jeffrey Saut, both of whose careers began by trading in the crisis of 1973–74 and who have been uber-successful ever since. They will discuss their best ideas and how they approach the market on a day-to-day and year-to-year basis. In the early ‘80s, George Soros tried three times to get Doug Kass to partner with him. Doug turned him down, and still Soros gave him money to put into his best idea. When Doug did, Soros disagreed and sold the investment. The stock then proceeded to go up many multiples. Doug has so many stories... and so does Jeffrey. I have often teased Jeff that he is the greatest name dropper in the entire investment world. He knows everybody, which he says is simply due to the fact that he has been around since the horse-and buggy days. He is still actively trading and manages well over $1.7 billion at his new firm, less than a year after leaving Raymond James where he was chief strategist for decades. You can’t find two more experienced traders anywhere. They promise to bring you their best ideas.
Barry Habib and Ivy Zelman will bring us up-to-date on the critical housing industry. Barry has been named by Zillow as the best housing and mortgage rate forecaster for two out of the last three years. He is simply uncanny with his interest rate calls, not just mortgages but US rates. Ivy Zelman is recognized as the most powerful analyst in the housing industry. Putting these two together? Priceless...
Of course, our own Jared Dillian will present his trading thoughts and best ideas. Jared has been on a great roll this last year and has deftly managed the change in markets. He is one of my daily must-reads.
The Really Problematic/Ugly: The Decade of Living Dangerously
You can’t have an investment conference without a big focus on China. It is the elephant in the room, and I have assembled some of the world’s top experts to talk about the various aspects of China. Not only is China causing the world problems—it also has its own internal problems.
Coming to us live from Beijing, Michael Pettis is an internationally recognized expert on China’s economy. He is professor of finance at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in the Chinese financial markets. Because of his role, he knows everybody in the decision-making process. He has been in China since 2002. A prolific writer, Michael’s books and blogs are a must-read if you want to understand China and international finance. He has been warning about the debt-financed infrastructure programs and what would happen if China tried to slow down that train. As that is a significant part of the economy and GDP, it will be very difficult to do, and China will need to add to its massive debt.
Joining Michael will be Dr. Jonathan Ward, author of the chilling book, China’s Vision of Victory, which details how China’s plan to become the world hegemon by 2050. Jonathan is a polymath, fluent in Chinese, Russian, Spanish, and Arabic. He has his PhD from Oxford in China-India relationships. In addition to studying original documents in Chinese libraries, which have since been closed to all scholars, he has a deep understanding of various cultures. His travels include hitchhiking with truck drivers throughout Tibet and Xinjiang, traveling by cargo ship across the South China Sea, visiting remote regions of the Russia-China border areas, and living in Damascus, Syria at the start of the Arab Spring. He has been praised by President Trump for his contributions on developing the China trade accord, and he is a go-to expert for the Pentagon, Congress, and government agencies.
Both Michael and Jonathan will make separate presentations, and then join a panel with Rene Aninao, one of the most wired-in analysts I know. He has deep contacts in the White House, Congress, the Federal Reserve, and many other government agencies. I try to have dinner with Rene and a few friends every time I’m in New York. China investor Mark Yusko (he was an early investor in Alibaba and other major Chinese startups) will moderate that panel. It seems appropriate to expect fireworks when these experts discuss China.
Another big elephant in the room is Federal Reserve policy. What are the consequences of what will soon be a $9 trillion balance sheet? Will it go to $20 trillion? Does it make a difference?
Longtime readers are well aware of my respect for Dr. Lacy Hunt. Other than being the co-manager of a mutual fund that has been the best-performing fund in the past 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years, he is one of the most profoundly insightful academically oriented economists I know. He will conduct a solo presentation and then join a panel. I have probably talked to Lacy more than any other economist... and I always take notes.
Dr. Woody Brock has his PhD from Princeton and studied under Kenneth Arrow, along with other Nobel laureates. His quarterly reports are works of art. His think tank is enormously respected, and he has spoken at Davos, the CIA, the Aspen Institute, and to hundreds of other organizations over the decades. He is well known for taking complex subjects and making them understandable.
Side story: I was talking with Woody yesterday, and he told me that he got a telephone call recently but failed to catch the caller’s name. He did understand who referred him, though, so he took the call. The person was asking about Federal Reserve policy, and lately that has been Woody’s hot button. Woody patiently explained why the Federal Reserve was completely off base, why what they were doing was wrong, and what they should be doing. 15 minutes into the conversation, he said, “Excuse me, sir, I didn’t catch your name—and who are you with?” The gentleman gave his name and said, “I am the president of [a regional] Federal Reserve bank.” (I won’t say which one.) Woody blanched, but kept on. The gentleman said he wished he could get his staff economists to be as frank with him. People who are serious about monetary policy talk to Woody. I frequently call him to help me when I’m confused.
Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, is my go-to guy on trying to understand the bond market. He is simply the best (you should be following him on Twitter). Blunt and opinionated, he can marshal facts and charts as fast as anybody I know. I have spent many evenings in Maine and on the boat talking with Jim. Every moment was precious.
And then there is Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory. He has his PhD from Harvard on the mathematical side of economics and government, taught in academia for a few decades, launched two tech companies, and now runs the research and investment strategy at Epsilon Theory. He is the single best person on “the narrative” and how it affects investing and society. Period. End of list. Ben is a gentle, soft-spoken, courteous to a fault, thoughtful person. Until he gets online or on Twitter, and then he becomes this outraged berserker. His motto: “Burn. It. The. #*&$%. Down.”
Jim and Ben will make their own presentations and then join Lacy and Woody on a panel to discuss central bank policy. This is likely to be a little more explosive than mere fireworks. It will be interesting to see which Ben shows up.
The next elephant in the room: politics.
There is a presidential election coming, with significant consequences. Again, we have a group of insiders with deep connections and insight.
Bruce Mehlman has been named one of DC’s top lobbyists by The Hill. He founded an independent and politically neutral firm in 2014 and consults with corporations and governments all over the world. His presentations are works of art.
I published the books of David Bahnsen’s father back in the early 1980s, so I have been around David for a very long time. He has been recognized as one of the top 250 advisors in America and is on the board of the National Review. He’s a prolific writer and author of three books, and his almost daily financial blog is a must-read. I think his insightful book, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It, helps us understand some of the problems in our society. His understanding of culture and politics is second to none. For that reason, I always try and plan my trips to New York to coincide with the schedule of this extraordinary thinker.
Bruce Bartlett is an anomaly. He worked in the Reagan and Bush 1 administrations. He briefly worked at the Cato Institute and then at the National Center for Policy Analysis based in Dallas, where we met. Sounds like a hard-core conservative, correct? Fired from the NCPA for criticizing Bush 2, he then wrote a book on the failure of Reaganomics and decided that Keynes was right all along. He has been quite critical of Trump and at the same time says favorable things about Paul Krugman. Talk about your Damascus Road journey...
After the two Bruces give their presentations, they will join David Bahnsen and Ben Hunt for a political panel to talk about the upcoming election and what the role and footprint of the US government will be after the elections. I have asked my friend Rob Arnott to moderate the panel, as he is well known for asking pointed questions and witty observations. Cue the bunker buster.
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