How the Coronavirus Accelerates the Endgame and the Great Reset

https://www.cmgwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/How-the-Coronavirus-Accelerates-the-Great-Reset-White-Paper.pdf



How the Coronavirus Accelerates the Endgame and
the Great Reset 



For several years now, we have been educating investors on debt supercycles and the coming Great Reset. The period that I call “The Great Reset” (to read about The Great Reset, please click on the following links to Part 1 and Part 2) will be defined by how we deal with the largest twin bubbles in history: global debt and unfunded government promises. The Coronavirus Pandemic moves us closer to this scenario.

Investors need to understand that The Great Reset is not a relatively short period of time like a recession. It will take several years at a minimum and maybe longer to completely “rationalize” the imbalances created by staggering debt, ever increasing deficits, the all too rapid growth of unfunded liabilities. It will seem like one continual crisis after another. And it will no doubt cause political upheaval and changes. It’s guaranteed to make everyone uncomfortable.


While I do think answers will be found and the economy will eventually be stabilized and move forward, it is not going to happen in the first few months or years. 



The answers/solutions are difficult and will be painful for everyone, both taxpayers and those dependent upon entitlements. There will be no good choices. I believe that investors will have to think differently about their investments, in particular, their core allocations that have for years benefited from a bull market in bonds.

In response to the global pandemic, governments and central banks have taken unprecedented action to support the economy. The hope is that aggressive fiscal and monetary measures taken now will prevent the global economy from going into a depression and increase the likelihood that a market recovery is immediate, a V-shaped recovery.

While there is reason to be optimistic, the longer-term impact will be an increase in government debt
burdens that brings us closer to The Great Reset scenario and face to face with difficult decisions.

The world will not be the same and we believe there are a number of current trends that bear watching and historical lessons that need to be re-learned from prior periods.  

•  The cost of this bailout will be legendary and will bring debt levels to staggering amounts. While central banks are prepared to do everything in their power to support debt markets, some countries will end up defaulting nonetheless. 
• For smaller, emerging economies, this will mean approaching international institutions like the IMF for a bailout or looking for relief through other methods, such as currency depreciation. 
• The global monetary dollar-based system will be under strain as countries fight harder for growth and will seek to manipulate their currencies. Countries will struggle due to dollar funding crises. 
• Global powers, such as Russia and China, will attempt to create alternate systems -- financial and geopolitical -- to undermine U.S. power. 
• The risk of inflationary or hyperinflationary periods increases. 
• The U.S. will look more like Japan after the current crisis: slower growth and more debt. Higher debt servicing costs will crowd out private investment.  
• De-globalization: The trade war between China and the U.S. and the pandemic will spur deglobalization and a redesign of supply chains, bringing critical industries closer to home, either domestically or regionally like Latin America. This would lead to higher costs, as supply chains are redesigned, and will create inflationary pressures. 
• Mercantilism: In a de-globalized world, countries are more likely to pursue mercantilism. Attempting to maximize exports and minimize imports will increase competition between countries and could lead to currency wars. 
• Bond yields will continue to remain low and fixed income assets will no longer serve as the risk diversifier to equities as they have for most of our lives. Additionally, investors seeking income will have to look in unconventional places like high dividend paying stocks to meet income needs. 
• Fingers of Instability: In the August 31, 2018, Thoughts from the Frontline, I discussed complex systems and their inherent instability. The current crisis is an example of how a complex system can be impacted by an exogenous shock. A world of slow growth, high debt and an increased winnertake-all approach to global trade will lead to numerous Minsky moments: stability leading to instability and more frequent changes between the two states. The result will be increased market volatility and periods of breakdown in historic asset class correlations.

While we don’t have a crystal ball, history provides us with many lessons that can help us prepare for the difficult periods that lie ahead. After a record long bull market run, it’s time for investors to prepare for a different market that requires a different approach to asset allocation and portfolio design.