Why the World’s Highest Virus Death Rate Is in Europe’s
Capital
Capital
By John Ainger
April 25, 2020, 7:00 AM GMT+1 Updated on April 25, 2020,
8:34 AM GMT+1
8:34 AM GMT+1
Belgium has reported more coronavirus fatalities than China
Figures linked to
rigorously counting nursing-home deaths
rigorously counting nursing-home deaths
In an art-deco building in the heart of Brussels, Belgium’s
leading scientists gather daily to announce the country’s coronavirus toll.
It’s been grim reading.
leading scientists gather daily to announce the country’s coronavirus toll.
It’s been grim reading.
Despite having only 11 million people, the country has
reported more deaths from the disease than China. With some 57 fatalities per
100,000 inhabitants, it has the highest per-capita death rate in the world --
almost four times that of the U.S.
reported more deaths from the disease than China. With some 57 fatalities per
100,000 inhabitants, it has the highest per-capita death rate in the world --
almost four times that of the U.S.
According to Belgian officials, the reason for the grisly
figures isn’t overwhelmed hospitals -- 43% of intensive-care beds were vacant
even at the peak of the crisis -- but the country’s bureaucratic rigor.
figures isn’t overwhelmed hospitals -- 43% of intensive-care beds were vacant
even at the peak of the crisis -- but the country’s bureaucratic rigor.
Read More: Belgium to Gradually Ease Virus Lockdown in First
Half of May
Half of May
“We often get criticism -- oh, you’re making Belgium look
bad -- we think it’s the opposite,” Steven Van Gucht, head of the viral disease
division at the Sciensano public-health institute, said while maintaining the
requisite distance of 1.5 meters (5 feet). “If you want to compare our numbers
with a lot of other countries, you basically have to cut them in half.”
bad -- we think it’s the opposite,” Steven Van Gucht, head of the viral disease
division at the Sciensano public-health institute, said while maintaining the
requisite distance of 1.5 meters (5 feet). “If you want to compare our numbers
with a lot of other countries, you basically have to cut them in half.”
Clearer Picture
About 95% of Covid-19 deaths in elderly care homes haven’t
been diagnosed, yet Belgium makes the decision to register them based on the
symptoms shown and who the people have been in contact with. The goal is to get
a clearer picture of the outbreak and better target hot spots.
been diagnosed, yet Belgium makes the decision to register them based on the
symptoms shown and who the people have been in contact with. The goal is to get
a clearer picture of the outbreak and better target hot spots.
At the start of each briefing at the Residence Palais, a
stone’s throw from the European Commission, Belgian officials detail the day’s
statistics in French and Dutch. They draw particular attention to those who die
outside of hospitals -- typically around half the total.
stone’s throw from the European Commission, Belgian officials detail the day’s
statistics in French and Dutch. They draw particular attention to those who die
outside of hospitals -- typically around half the total.
Read more: Coronavirus Is Leading to Europe’s Highest Deaths
in Decades
in Decades
The impact of the disease on vulnerable care-home residents
is a growing issue. While Europe knew it would need more ventilators and
intensive-care capacity once the virus spread beyond China, the impact on
nursing homes was unexpected, according to Agoritsa Baka, a senior expert at
the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
is a growing issue. While Europe knew it would need more ventilators and
intensive-care capacity once the virus spread beyond China, the impact on
nursing homes was unexpected, according to Agoritsa Baka, a senior expert at
the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
“It’s a disaster,” she said. “We did not realize how
devastating Covid would be if it entered these populations.”
devastating Covid would be if it entered these populations.”
Excess Mortality
Yet not all European countries are measuring the impact in
the same way, meaning that the numbers of coronavirus deaths are likely
thousands higher than the official count of more than 110,000.
the same way, meaning that the numbers of coronavirus deaths are likely
thousands higher than the official count of more than 110,000.
The consequence of uneven practices was evident in France.
When the country reported data from some nursing homes for the first time in
early April, those fatalities were almost double the number of people that died
in hospitals.
When the country reported data from some nursing homes for the first time in
early April, those fatalities were almost double the number of people that died
in hospitals.
Last week, Spain had to adjust its historical data after
Catalonia started including people who had symptoms but didn’t test positive.
This week a local radio broadcaster reported that more than 6,800 elderly died
in Spanish nursing homes with symptoms but weren’t recorded in official data.
Catalonia started including people who had symptoms but didn’t test positive.
This week a local radio broadcaster reported that more than 6,800 elderly died
in Spanish nursing homes with symptoms but weren’t recorded in official data.
Germany’s unusually low mortality rate may be helped by the
fact that the country only counts deaths that have a positive virus test.
fact that the country only counts deaths that have a positive virus test.
Such discrepancies show up in a concept called “excess
mortality,” the number of extra fatalities above typical trends. In Belgium,
just over 300 people normally die every day, but this year, it’s jumped to
nearly 600.
mortality,” the number of extra fatalities above typical trends. In Belgium,
just over 300 people normally die every day, but this year, it’s jumped to
nearly 600.
A project called euroMOMO, originally developed for gauging
the scale of flu epidemics, is now being used to track the impact of the
coronavirus in Europe.
the scale of flu epidemics, is now being used to track the impact of the
coronavirus in Europe.
Good Surveillance
Belgium’s practice means that nearly all deaths are
accounted for in a given week, while neighboring Netherlands has around 1,000
undefined fatalities. Some countries’
virus deaths are around a sixth of their excess mortality rates.
accounted for in a given week, while neighboring Netherlands has around 1,000
undefined fatalities. Some countries’
virus deaths are around a sixth of their excess mortality rates.
Better tracking could help improve Europe’s response to
outbreaks, especially as the region gradually eases lockdown restrictions,
raising the prospect of second-wave outbreaks. Coordinated procedures could
also defuse tensions as Europe grapples with recovery efforts.
outbreaks, especially as the region gradually eases lockdown restrictions,
raising the prospect of second-wave outbreaks. Coordinated procedures could
also defuse tensions as Europe grapples with recovery efforts.
“We are still in a situation where within the EU we do not
count the same way, which could lead to political misunderstandings,” said
Pascal Canfin, chair of EU Parliament’s environment and health committee. “It
leads to different perception awareness of the crisis.”
count the same way, which could lead to political misunderstandings,” said
Pascal Canfin, chair of EU Parliament’s environment and health committee. “It
leads to different perception awareness of the crisis.”
In the meantime, the world’s eyes shouldn’t be focused on
Belgium because at least the extent of the problem is known, according to Van
Gucht.
Belgium because at least the extent of the problem is known, according to Van
Gucht.
“When you have a good surveillance system, you report a lot
of cases,” he said. “It’s the countries
that are not reporting or that are reporting very low numbers, you should be
more worried about.”
of cases,” he said. “It’s the countries
that are not reporting or that are reporting very low numbers, you should be
more worried about.”
— With assistance by Nikos Chrysoloras, Aoife White, John
Martens, Ewa Krukowska, Rodrigo Orihuela, and Naomi Kresge
Martens, Ewa Krukowska, Rodrigo Orihuela, and Naomi Kresge
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