“Vaccine production capacity will be key. We will
need millions per week and eventually billions per year. … Dr. Kim thinks
people will likely need multiple vaccinations, probably every other year, but
we just don’t know yet.”
Future Trajectory
China… after 2–3 months of ruthlessly enforced
lockdown, the virus receded enough to let people leave home and businesses
begin reopening. …Daily life is still heavily constrained, consumer spending is
nowhere near what it was and will probably remain so until a vaccine is
available. We don’t yet see anything that looks like a V-shaped economic
recovery in China.
this from CBS News.
…entire industries either wiped out or hastily transformed…
…what we’re really asking is when the previously normal economy will be back. The answer is “never,”
I’m afraid. We will return to something quite different and as yet unknown.
…the US can be in phase 3 by the end of May if we do this
right.
If we don’t do it right? Good-bye, summer, and hello to a
recession that lasts much longer than it otherwise would.
…an email group (courtesy of Dr. Mike Roizen) that is
helping provide counsel for state governments. The suggestions they make are
somewhat similar to Trump’s, but with a lot more detail. They break the
population into five groups based on risk factors like age, and health
condition… they estimate that 80% of the working population can be released
initially, and another 10% in phase 2, and then everyone when adequate
testing and a vaccine are available.
Testing is key to any reopening plan. Most of the
experts think the US needs to be testing at least 500,000 people a day
to truly get the pandemic under control. We are just starting to get into the
neighborhood of 200,000 on average for the last few days….Widespread,
reliable testing will help generate the confidence we need to get
the economy moving again. Not enough testing will mean less confidence and slower
recovery.
The tests and labs are not the only constraints here….
supplies like gloves and other protective equipment for health workers. We need
to get every component, in adequate quantity,
The
Inflation/Deflation Debate
…to reopen the economy soon enough for recovery to
take place on its own. I think this will take 2+ years, and we won’t see
anything like a V-shaped recovery this year.
….is all this Federal Reserve buying (NOT money printing) going
to cause inflation down the road?... Dr. Lacy Hunt…the short answer is
no.
……For the Fed to engage in true MMT, a major
regulatory change to the Federal Reserve Acts would be necessary: The Fed’s
liabilities would need to be made legal tender. Having the Treasury sell
securities directly to the Fed could do this; the Treasury’s deposits would be
credited and then the Treasury would write checks against these deposits. In
this case, the Fed would, in essence, write checks to pay the obligations of
the Treasury.
If this change is enacted, rising inflation would ensue.
…it was the rise of the service economy from 25% of
the workforce in 1910 to 86% of the workforce today that produced the
stability we have seen in the business cycle.
…The shock we are experiencing today … We are simply seeing
the service sector implode and we have no idea how long it will take to
come back.
… this pandemic is accelerating the timeline for what
I call The Great Reset, when we will have to rationalize global debt.
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