Six Ways the U.S. Isn't Ready for Wars of the Future
The new ABC’s of combat: autonomy, biotech and cyber.
By James Stavridis
July 10, 2020, 3:00 PM GMT+1
James Stavridis is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a
retired U.S. Navy admiral and former supreme allied commander of NATO, and dean
emeritus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He is
also an operating executive consultant at the Carlyle Group and chairs the
board of counselors at McLarty Associates.
retired U.S. Navy admiral and former supreme allied commander of NATO, and dean
emeritus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He is
also an operating executive consultant at the Carlyle Group and chairs the
board of counselors at McLarty Associates.
Given the combination of Covid-19, economic turbulence and
an election year, Americans can be forgiven if international security has been
pushed out of mind. Congress, fortunately, has not been so distracted: The
House Armed Services Committee last week passed a $740 billion annual defense
authorization bill.
an election year, Americans can be forgiven if international security has been
pushed out of mind. Congress, fortunately, has not been so distracted: The
House Armed Services Committee last week passed a $740 billion annual defense
authorization bill.
The measure addressed several hot-button issues specifically
— a raise for the troops, Confederate symbols on bases, limiting the
president's ability to pull out troops from Europe and Afghanistan. But the
longer-term questions are murkier: What are the key areas in which the U.S.
must invest to prepare for deterrence and combat operations in the 21st
century?
— a raise for the troops, Confederate symbols on bases, limiting the
president's ability to pull out troops from Europe and Afghanistan. But the
longer-term questions are murkier: What are the key areas in which the U.S.
must invest to prepare for deterrence and combat operations in the 21st
century?
There are plenty of very smart people looking at this
question. Each of the armed forces has some version of a think tank wrestling
with its future. The Army, for example, created the U.S. Futures Command in
Austin, Texas — an excellent location given the confluence of tech and cyber
companies, a major research university and a military-friendly state.
question. Each of the armed forces has some version of a think tank wrestling
with its future. The Army, for example, created the U.S. Futures Command in
Austin, Texas — an excellent location given the confluence of tech and cyber
companies, a major research university and a military-friendly state.
One dynamic group there, Team Ignite, is looking at how
warfare will change in the 2040-2050 timeframe. This echoes work done at the
RAND Corporation immediately after World War II in understanding how big
technology changes can affect warfare. Team Ignite is trying to understand the
fusion between artificial intelligence, biotech, space, machine learning and
other trends. Another new effort is the Air Force’s Global Futures Report,
which is both geopolitical and technological in its approach.
warfare will change in the 2040-2050 timeframe. This echoes work done at the
RAND Corporation immediately after World War II in understanding how big
technology changes can affect warfare. Team Ignite is trying to understand the
fusion between artificial intelligence, biotech, space, machine learning and
other trends. Another new effort is the Air Force’s Global Futures Report,
which is both geopolitical and technological in its approach.
I led a similar effort as a newly selected one-star admiral
immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks. Our group sought to find emerging
technologies (along with new strategies, tactics and procedures) as the Navy
changed course to operate in what became the “global war on terrorism.” That
small organization, Deep Blue, produced some hits and some misses, but was part
of a significant shift in how the Navy approached its role in warfighting and
what new technologies would move into the fleet.
immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks. Our group sought to find emerging
technologies (along with new strategies, tactics and procedures) as the Navy
changed course to operate in what became the “global war on terrorism.” That
small organization, Deep Blue, produced some hits and some misses, but was part
of a significant shift in how the Navy approached its role in warfighting and
what new technologies would move into the fleet.
Today, with the renewed emphasis on peer or near-peer
military competitors China and Russia, a similar shift is upon us.
Extrapolating from work we did at Deep Blue and surveying all the service
efforts at the unclassified level (as well as increased understanding of
industry work from my post-military career), I’d say there are six “top of
mind” technology zones to watch:
military competitors China and Russia, a similar shift is upon us.
Extrapolating from work we did at Deep Blue and surveying all the service
efforts at the unclassified level (as well as increased understanding of
industry work from my post-military career), I’d say there are six “top of
mind” technology zones to watch:
Artificial Intelligence: There will be an increasingly
seamless merger of AI and autonomous mechanical systems as we collectively work
through the degree to which we will be content to take the “person out of the
loop” in combat decision-making and operations. During the invasion of
Afghanistan, the U.S. military had zero robots in its inventory and only a
handful of somewhat autonomous systems. Today the Department of Defense has
over 22,000 robotic systems.
seamless merger of AI and autonomous mechanical systems as we collectively work
through the degree to which we will be content to take the “person out of the
loop” in combat decision-making and operations. During the invasion of
Afghanistan, the U.S. military had zero robots in its inventory and only a
handful of somewhat autonomous systems. Today the Department of Defense has
over 22,000 robotic systems.
In the private sector, collective spending is approaching
$100 billion annually in an AI arms race that is both military and commercial.
AI will allow military decision-makers to streamline complex logistics and
supply chains; analyze opponents' moves; and make better tactical and
operational choices in combat. Think about how AI is allowing machines to
dominate global chess and go masters; this will be mirrored on the battlefield.
$100 billion annually in an AI arms race that is both military and commercial.
AI will allow military decision-makers to streamline complex logistics and
supply chains; analyze opponents' moves; and make better tactical and
operational choices in combat. Think about how AI is allowing machines to
dominate global chess and go masters; this will be mirrored on the battlefield.
Autonomous Systems: AI-driven systems will allow better and
more “thoughtful” driverless platforms: airborne drones, cars, heavy land
vehicles, surface ships and submarines. But an entirely different level of AI
will drive “swarm” systems that can put hundreds or thousands of sensors or
weapons to use in an autonomous fashion. The fusion of AI and mechanical
systems will ultimately produce something akin to the human-like robots Isaac
Asimov imagined 70 years ago in “I Robot.”
It will also bring to reality some of the frightening combat technology
depicted in Peter Singer and August Cole’s 2015 novel “Ghost Fleet,” in which
swarming insect-sized sensing/killing machines flood the battlefield and knock
out large enemy systems.
more “thoughtful” driverless platforms: airborne drones, cars, heavy land
vehicles, surface ships and submarines. But an entirely different level of AI
will drive “swarm” systems that can put hundreds or thousands of sensors or
weapons to use in an autonomous fashion. The fusion of AI and mechanical
systems will ultimately produce something akin to the human-like robots Isaac
Asimov imagined 70 years ago in “I Robot.”
It will also bring to reality some of the frightening combat technology
depicted in Peter Singer and August Cole’s 2015 novel “Ghost Fleet,” in which
swarming insect-sized sensing/killing machines flood the battlefield and knock
out large enemy systems.
Control of the world’s oceans through denial systems based
on commercial AI-driven deep-sea mining complexes is another potential
manifestation. So, too, millimeter-wave communications, which allow for
extremely high data rates, synced with local cloud and networked solutions.
Such systems are highly directional and short burst, and are extremely hard to
detect. They would enable swarm attacks and distributed fire control,
especially if paired with small solar-powered dirigibles, for example.
on commercial AI-driven deep-sea mining complexes is another potential
manifestation. So, too, millimeter-wave communications, which allow for
extremely high data rates, synced with local cloud and networked solutions.
Such systems are highly directional and short burst, and are extremely hard to
detect. They would enable swarm attacks and distributed fire control,
especially if paired with small solar-powered dirigibles, for example.
Cyber: All of the AI and autonomous systems will ultimately
run on some version of the World Wide Web. Whether it's best if they reside on
a “hived off” segment that is devoted to military use, or end up simply running
sub rosa on the general internet, is as yet unclear. It is worth remembering
that the internet of things is an increasingly populated space, with perhaps 20
billion devices online today — almost three for every human on the planet — and
will top 50 billion devices by mid-decade.
run on some version of the World Wide Web. Whether it's best if they reside on
a “hived off” segment that is devoted to military use, or end up simply running
sub rosa on the general internet, is as yet unclear. It is worth remembering
that the internet of things is an increasingly populated space, with perhaps 20
billion devices online today — almost three for every human on the planet — and
will top 50 billion devices by mid-decade.
All of this provides incredible convenience ("Yay, I
can open my garage door from a thousand miles away!") but also creates an
enormous “threat surface” through which malicious state actors, hacktivists and
cyber-criminals can operate. The military is in most ways dependent on an
operational internet, and protecting military action in that so-called fifth
domain is crucial. Militaries will have to be capable of integrated
cyberwarfare; robust defenses of online systems; and a high degree of
cooperation with the private sector. Just as the military has created an
official Space Force, it must now create a Cyber Force.
can open my garage door from a thousand miles away!") but also creates an
enormous “threat surface” through which malicious state actors, hacktivists and
cyber-criminals can operate. The military is in most ways dependent on an
operational internet, and protecting military action in that so-called fifth
domain is crucial. Militaries will have to be capable of integrated
cyberwarfare; robust defenses of online systems; and a high degree of
cooperation with the private sector. Just as the military has created an
official Space Force, it must now create a Cyber Force.
Space: There are more than 2,600 satellites orbiting Earth,
hundreds of them military in nature. Defense satellites will be used for
broad-area surveillance, communications intercepts, intelligence analysis,
precision targeting, counter-space operations (attacking other satellites) and
commercial disruption. Several companies I advise work in the satellite
industry, and the commercial demand for space-based solutions in projects
ranging from smart agriculture to deep-seabed mining is skyrocketing. Finding
the right public-private mix in space will be crucial to national defense.
hundreds of them military in nature. Defense satellites will be used for
broad-area surveillance, communications intercepts, intelligence analysis,
precision targeting, counter-space operations (attacking other satellites) and
commercial disruption. Several companies I advise work in the satellite
industry, and the commercial demand for space-based solutions in projects
ranging from smart agriculture to deep-seabed mining is skyrocketing. Finding
the right public-private mix in space will be crucial to national defense.
Biotech: If the Coronavirus pandemic has taught us nothing
else, it is that we should respect the potential for biology to change all of
our lives in an instant. Unfortunately, the future will almost certainly
include sophisticated bioweapons developed in labs, despite international
conventions to the contrary. It will be irresistible to smaller nations to
think of bioweapons as equalizers. It's important that they be part of the
international security regime and new treaties to ban research and development.
else, it is that we should respect the potential for biology to change all of
our lives in an instant. Unfortunately, the future will almost certainly
include sophisticated bioweapons developed in labs, despite international
conventions to the contrary. It will be irresistible to smaller nations to
think of bioweapons as equalizers. It's important that they be part of the
international security regime and new treaties to ban research and development.
Additionally, vast improvement in what some have called
“wetware” — biological improvements in human capability — is coming. Does that
mean a real Wolverine from the X-Men is right around the corner? Probably not.
But there are efforts to build exoskeletons for soldiers, develop longer-term
“go pills” for pilots and navigators to remain alert, and artificially improve
human cognitive abilities.
“wetware” — biological improvements in human capability — is coming. Does that
mean a real Wolverine from the X-Men is right around the corner? Probably not.
But there are efforts to build exoskeletons for soldiers, develop longer-term
“go pills” for pilots and navigators to remain alert, and artificially improve
human cognitive abilities.
Special Forces: Alongside all the high-technology
improvements, one trend in 21st century defense will be reassuringly human: the
continued rise of special forces. There have always been commandos as part of
warfare — going back to the ancient Greeks and Persians. But in today’s world,
the need for small, elite teams of warriors with ultrahigh levels of training,
intelligence, fitness and advanced equipment, will grow.
improvements, one trend in 21st century defense will be reassuringly human: the
continued rise of special forces. There have always been commandos as part of
warfare — going back to the ancient Greeks and Persians. But in today’s world,
the need for small, elite teams of warriors with ultrahigh levels of training,
intelligence, fitness and advanced equipment, will grow.
Massive formations of armies locked in combat appear
increasingly unlikely because of the cost of maintaining such forces in
peacetime (especially without conscription) and the ease with which they can be
targeted by advanced systems and destroyed in the field.
increasingly unlikely because of the cost of maintaining such forces in
peacetime (especially without conscription) and the ease with which they can be
targeted by advanced systems and destroyed in the field.
Instead, shadowy teams of highly skilled operators will link
together the tools described above: operating with immediate access to
satellite-provided precision information, calling on autonomous attack
platforms, using cyberwarfare programs to confuse and disrupt the enemy, and
relying on human performance enhancements to sustain themselves over long
tactical periods. Russian “hybrid warfare” which was used so effectively on
Ukraine and Georgia was a nascent version of this.
together the tools described above: operating with immediate access to
satellite-provided precision information, calling on autonomous attack
platforms, using cyberwarfare programs to confuse and disrupt the enemy, and
relying on human performance enhancements to sustain themselves over long
tactical periods. Russian “hybrid warfare” which was used so effectively on
Ukraine and Georgia was a nascent version of this.
There is a seemingly endless list of other technologies
underlying these six big trends: nanotechnology,
metallurgy and materials, hypersonic speed, subatomic particle movement,
quantum computing, and so on. In my role as a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, I have
seen things that were only science fiction just a decade ago. The question is
whether the Defense Department is prepared to embrace this new world.
underlying these six big trends: nanotechnology,
metallurgy and materials, hypersonic speed, subatomic particle movement,
quantum computing, and so on. In my role as a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, I have
seen things that were only science fiction just a decade ago. The question is
whether the Defense Department is prepared to embrace this new world.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the
editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
James Stavridis at jstavridis@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net
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